Converter doesn't seem to be working so I'll type out the hand. $1100 effective. I'm opening all buttons to 3x, MYNMSGREG is playing 30/11 in the BB so he is really not 3 betting me much at all. In previous sessions, he has called me fairly wide in BB and c/r a lot of flops. The first time we played, I ended up spewing a lot in c/r flops because he was c/r a much stronger range than I thought and I had to fold a lot or ended up bluffing in bad spots. He has c/r me a couple times earlier this session, I folded.

I raise K3 to 30, MNIG calls.

Flop comes KJ5. I bet 40, he makes it 145, I make it 350, he thinks a bit and calls.

Turn is J. He checks, I check.

River is T. He thinks a bit and pushes for almost exactly pot.

Obviously a lot of different ways to play this hand. I would almost always call this flop, MNIG certainly capable of calling here pre with K9-KJ, maybe KQ. Dunno if he would play something like K7s like this, but he could. Air is obviously also in his range. I chose to 3bet this time because I haven't really 3bet him much in general, I normally call or fold to 3bets, and I have good equity vs air if he does decide to shove.

Turn seems standard... no idea on river. My hand range obviously has a lot of air, but the rest is probably Kx and I don't think he thinks I fold that. He could conceivably have something like 56 here I suppose and turn it into a bluff, but I don't think he is really floating here all that often. On the bright side, I do split with Kx besides KJ and KT.

calling seems to be hoping for a chop at best. i don't see how worse hands can fit into his range at all once he flats your 3bet. fold it

"I bet 40, he makes it 145, I make it 350, "

Wait, you do what?

I don't know squat about HU but your reason for 3betting flop seems really poor.

fold plz

just might be the worst flop 3bet of all time

lol srsly wtf

qft...wtf

if he has you beat its because he has 555/KJ on the river, and im not sure i believe that. id probably look him up.

and yea wtf at flop 3b.

Flop 3bet bad, sure, but given how that's played and the line it reps, would Hero have been better off betting the turn then?

yeah this seems weird to me too

I always contemplate spots like these and the response we have towards them. If we truly believe in having a wide range in a diverse amount of spots, then isn't it reasonable to show up with TPNK in this spot once in a blue moon? I realize that your HU opp might not get to process what has happened/showdown this hand, and there may or may not be a metagame between you, but if you don't attempt this sometime, you'll never know. I have no problem with the 3b, personally.

so your 3betting the flop to induce MNIG to shove AT or wat?

I don't think he needs AT to shove here.

... are we talking about the same guy?

"I do split with Kx besides KJ and KT."

you split with KT imo

Even better.

one thing i do want to add is that i dont think greg ever checkraises a jack on the flop.

that said, IF HE DID, he would likely call the flop 3bet out of confusion (because no one in their sane mind 3bets Kx on this flop "MOST" of the time) and obviously value shove once he hits trips and you checked through the river.

we can ignore previous streets really and just boil the question to: What could he be bluffing? Since I can't really put a finger on it. I mean, the basic theory side of me wants to call simply because we only need 33% to be right to win and we have two pair heads up. And I want to see what he checkraises then flats your flop 3bet. But the other side of me - the better poker player - thinks that greg needs to have specifically...

AQ*, AT, QT, or T9 that didn't repop pf (perfectly ok so far given I know both greg's game somewhat as well as based on those stats, although him having AQ is not) and decided to c/r and call the flop given odds etc, then when rivering a pair ignored show down value and went for a bluff. (These assumptions are way out of line so I would assign him showing up w/ one of those 5% of the time tops, probably 3%)
Complete air (67, 89, A7 for example) that bluff checkraised a decent cbet flop for the pfr (although 100% pfr this is negligible ) and went for a tricky out of position float because he viewed your 3bet as nothing so he could take it away with a river shove (chance these assumptions working out are 3% tops, probably only 1% for raw misclick equity)
An underpair or weak made hand (5x) that decided to steal the pot away on the flop, then called because greg felt he had the best hand, then when you pot controlled the flop, felt it could move you off AA or Kx or so therefore shove had more value then checking... Same thing really as above and frankly I'm not seeing it. (another 1%???)
The other hopefully scenario is Greg checkraising a king (this is reasonable given what I know about him, but the number of kings given his pf game and stats - gray area of 19% - is likely KJ, KT, K9 and MAYBE a few suited kings) then calling and finally shoving river in the hopes to get paid by worse (as in, Tx or QQ??) because I dont think Greg can think Xorb can have a king here too often, so he feels more value in shoving then check calling... This is the highest likeliehood of the above scenarios, so IMO -

If you had worse then Kx this is a fold 100% of the time
If you had better then Kx this is a call 100% of the time (including KQ obv)
Given you actually have what you have, it's a tough decision, and I suppose it's a spot you win maybe 5% of the time, he has the goods (specifically ONLY KJ or 55, greg is slowplaying AK or KK or JJ or AA pf very very rarely if we could make that safe assumption...) you could say he always takes this line with KJo, KJs, and 55 (10 combos I believe given only 2 kings and 2 jacks in the deck) and even if we mete out 1 combo of a slowplayed hand (seems reasonable) if he could have KTo/s pf (6) and maybe like KXs completely (ignoring K5 and K3 for other reasons) (12 more combos) even if he always plays it like that, it's like 11 times we lose 100%, 1 time we win 100%, 12 times we split, makes it like 45/5/50, our eq. is still only 30, which means we prob should fold (unless xorbie fudged the details and the shove of less then pot meant we only needed 30% equity not 33%, then it's a call)

again, hard to say, probably very close either way, in these spots I never fold, but raw combo and theory wise I suppose neither decision matters.

Oh yeah, the flop 3bet in isolation is bad.

going to edit and I made a small type bc I didn't throw KT in with the suited kings, makesit look blandly like 11 lose 1 win 18 split or 37 lose, 3 win, 60 split, which brings our equity to the ~33 mark (nearly...) so I guess makes it a more acceptable call.

man if you write 20+ lines about this fkn hand, your book must be 40000 pages long

dont get if this is a positive or negative statement, but either way, nice trolling, keep up the good work MSNL

Good stuff bobbo. Results were I called but didn't like it.

Nice post, Bobbo.


Can you tell what he had now or later?

I like the river call in theory, but against most opps at these stakes its a bad call cuz they're too polarized to just having it even though they should be bluffing a higher frequency given what your flop 3-bet range SHOULD rep.

If he's been c/r'ing a lot this makes this way more a fold.

man i stopped reading this thread at the flop 3-bet