I think we need to be deeper to make set mining profitable. Villain doesn't automatically double up as soon as he hits a set.
When Villain flops a set, I will also either flop a set or make one by the river 16.5% of the time. Add on a few pps for being able to make a flush or a straight, and AA still has 21% equity even when we know villain flops a set:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
JJ | 78.89% | 9,858,456 | 114,120 |
AA | 21.11% | 2,596,464 | 114,120 |
When you factor in the third player also possibly having a big pair, you're going to lose by the river about 25-30% of the time even when you flop a set. If when you flop a set, you get stacked 25% of the time, and stack someone else 75% of the time, you're netting out half a stack on average, which means you really need about 1:15 implied odds to make set mining profitable here.
And realistically, they're not going to be able to fold flop every time they don't hit a set because there will be several flops where a middle pair needs to peel at least one street.