I have yet to learn any real math with odds and stuff involved with poker. /facepalm I actually plan on doing that this weekend intensively while the family(with a newborn baby who likes to cry and poop alot) is spending time at my house for the holidays. lol

MP2 is only ever raising with 10s+/AKo/AKs/KQs here and flop C-bet from him on this flop says QQ+ or AhQh meaning TPTK + Nut Flush draw.

BTN is complete whale and could very well have Ace High with no hearts(yeah... lol)

PF the plan is to play my position against a pretty open faced book nit with suited connectors.

OTF the plan is to call and wait to get it all in when I actually hit a straight or flush because I know MP2 has what I said above. After BTN weirdly shoves with what could be ATC I honestly don't know what I'm supposed to do here. I'm looking at a straight flush draw and checking stack sizes again and realize I only need to put $4 in to win $8 more. Yeah, I was lost for the first time today in over 3,000 hands. I decided to call and now I feel so dirty. So, so, so dirty for turning a straight flush 2 outer even when I actually had 14 outs or so to win the hand.

I watched the hand replay on my HEM2 and saw I was actually a 54% vs 40% vs 5% favorite on the flop with those hands that turned up.

Question #1 Is it +EV to call given opponent's ranges I laid out? It could of very well been QQ by MP2.

Question #2 How does the math change if it's only against one person? I guess I'd want to run the range of both opponents seperately 1v1. (I have a feeling I'm a favorite against ATC but could be wrong.)

Can someone breakdown the math here and/or let me know what math concepts/calculators/tools that are needed to figure this out.

holy christ raise flop

also fold pre

Raise flop, given your estimate of MP2's range you're a favourite against almost all of it (except AhQh and QQ, I think), and even when you're a dog it's not by too much. He's surely getting it in with all of the range you assign to him. If BTN comes along, even better.

EDIT: In response to your questions:


Question #1 - Yes, definitely.

Question #2 - You're almost certain to be in an EV+ situation against the range of either MP2 or BTN alone.

Basically, it's almost never bad to shove a straight flush draw on the flop.

I pretty much agree with what the other said, as played I would call given the odds and the equity that we have against their ranges.

But the call PF is, in my opinion, not a good thing to do. The price that you have to pay is pretty big since you won't hit a good flop really often and even if you do, you aren't necessarily sure that villain will stack off with TPTK or some dominated hands like that. Plus the fact that you could get squeezed and would be forced to fold if the price isn't good enough or if MP2 shoves.

From a mathematical point of view, I'm really not an expert but the advice that I can give you is to download http://www.pokerstove.com/blog/downloads/ If you haven't already. You can mess a bit with hypothetical ranges and see what your equity is in certain situation, it'll help you to determine where you are at when you are in this kind of situations.

Thanks for the replies.
lol this is one of the reasons I called. I can't remember the last time I've folded a straight flush draw or anyone else for that matter.

Is this really an instant fold preflop? We have great position in the CO and we know when MP2 has hit. If he bets, he hit or has had it PF. If he checks, we bet and take down the pot regardless of our holdings if it's just us 2 to the flop. I thought I read somewhere(lol) that suited connectors play well against premium hands. Also after viewing this hand the next day I see it's an obvious raise on flop to try and get the nit's(MP2) stack in since he's betting hard.

The reason I called(first call) yesterday on the flop was because one of the changes in my gameplay I've made these past few days to reduce variance and play better was to try and not get it all-in on coinflips against people. I've ran into many hands where the turn pairs the board and now my flush/straight draws are worthless and not worth pursuing if villain is still pushing hard on turn. It may sound like playing scared, but I believe it's just a little more passive approach I've taken to get myself out of this downswing which has worked quite well I have to say.