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[LOW] 4BP Do you prefer Betting or Checking Turn?

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02-19-2023 , 11:54 AM

#26

thr33bet

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Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,461

Quote:

Originally Posted by YanasaurBBQ

So I played a hand last night where I raised UTG w AKs got 3bet by BTN and 4bet to 25bb and got called by JTs. He turned a flush vs my TPTK of course so I went broke, but just another data point of someone calling a 4bet w that type of hand.

I have a bunch in the past few days where reg stats player on BTN did this with hands like T9s, 65s. I think they're supposed to flat the few SCs they do have vs. a 4b, the problem is that it seems they're 3b at a much higher frequency with these hands than at equilibrium.

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02-19-2023 , 12:46 PM

#27

YanasaurBBQ

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Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 2,175

Quote:

Originally Posted by thr33bet

Yes, i believe they have them at a way higher frequency and then dont fold to 4bets.

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02-19-2023 , 12:53 PM

#28

DooDooPoker

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Originally Posted by ChiTownBubba

DooDoo,

I have a question about the software.

Your sample is Ignition right? And if it is Ignition, how often are you getting more than 100 hands on a player in each table session?

I ask this because player types being dumped into buckets (tight reg, good reg, whale, etc.) based on samples this small could produce some weird results.

I guess it is better if the software pulls all of the players who operated under the various stat ranges and lump them together but that doesn't tell the whole story either.

I know for a fact that I have sat in these games and had nit stats after 100 hands (card dead) or I have been a "Nutball" when I am running hot. What bucket would I end up in?

The beauty of Ignition is that I can just get up and leave, wait a few seconds and then sit back down (presumably at a different table) and no one is the wiser. Pretty easy to play against the guy playing 10/10 after 80 hands. In fact, I won't go much beyond 25 hands or so when I am card dead. I get up and leave if there are regs at the table who I assume are running a HUD. If it is a table full of fish, I don't care what my stats look like because it doesn't matter.

Curious what your thoughts are with regard to the sample size/player categories.

You're right that you can't have a high level of confidence in player types over 100 hands. I'm not an expert in statistics so I don't know what the actual hand # is for VPIP/PFR for say a 95% confidence interval. But I know it's a lot higher than that.

I don't use my own DB for MDA stuff. I get it from other people who understand the technical aspect better than me and who have much larger databases.

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02-19-2023 , 12:55 PM

#29

DooDooPoker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by YanasaurBBQ

Yeah but your data point's are based on selection bias because if he folds JTs there you don't see it.

I'm still of the opinion that they over fold vs 4bets but I'm not 100% on it.

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02-19-2023 , 01:19 PM

#30

AskZandar

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Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 3,046

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

Yeah but your data point's are based on selection bias because if he folds JTs there you don't see it.

I'm still of the opinion that they over fold vs 4bets but I'm not 100% on it.

how often are people supposed to 3b/fold to 4b overall without accounting for positions and other actions?

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02-19-2023 , 01:37 PM

#31

DooDooPoker

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Originally Posted by AskZandar

how often are people supposed to 3b/fold to 4b overall without accounting for positions and other actions?

A GTO 3bet % is all dependent on sizing's but it should be anywhere from 10%-13% overall.

4bet % is 12%-16%

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02-19-2023 , 01:45 PM

#32

AskZandar

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

A GTO 3bet % is all dependent on sizing's but it should be anywhere from 10%-13% overall.

4bet % is 12%-16%

I mean how often are people supposed to fold to a 4b after 3betting.

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02-19-2023 , 01:54 PM

#33

DooDooPoker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by AskZandar

I mean how often are people supposed to fold to a 4b after 3betting.

I have to check my notes, I did a deep dive into HUD stats about a year ago and wrote all this stuff down.

I have fold to 4bet after 3bet at 50%-55%

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02-19-2023 , 03:09 PM

#34

YanasaurBBQ

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Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 2,175

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

Yeah but your data point's are based on selection bias because if he folds JTs there you don't see it.

I'm still of the opinion that they over fold vs 4bets but I'm not 100% on it.

Hmm. Wish we knew for sure. Is JTs a call vs UTG 4b? Its probably better vs UTG than CO though bc we arent likely to 4b AJ or AT from UTG so less chance of domination.

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02-19-2023 , 03:19 PM

#35

DooDooPoker

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Originally Posted by YanasaurBBQ

Hmm. Wish we knew for sure. Is JTs a call vs UTG 4b? Its probably better vs UTG than CO though bc we arent likely to 4b AJ or AT from UTG so less chance of domination.

It's mixed at 20bb 4bet, it's definitely mistake to call but I don't think population pays enough attention to 4bet sizing.

That's a good point I didn't think of, it's mixed at COvsBU too but you are probably right that it's a better call vs UTG

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02-19-2023 , 10:32 PM

#36

submersible

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Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 2,139

Quote:

Originally Posted by YanasaurBBQ

Verrrrrry wide. They have K9, A9, JT, 98, QT, etc. Population hates folding to 3b and 4b when IP.

i mean theres just no way these hands are in any populations (maybe whale / very bad fish) turn range with any kind of real frequency. personally id check. at least in my pools i dont see people hero down all that light in these spots

Last edited by submersible; 02-19-2023 at 10:39 PM.