Relevant info:

Villain is a thinking player. He's not your average reg, he's one tabling and he's playing pretty slowly. His PTR reflects the fact that he doesn't play much, but certainly no evidence that he's a long term loser. My initial impression of him was that he was way too aggro, 3betting way too much and rarely giving up on a hand. For example:


Full Tilt Poker $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (BTN/SB): $421.50
BB: $465.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN/SB with A Q
Hero raises to $12, BB raises to $41, Hero raises to $92, BB raises to $143, Hero raises to $421.50, 1 fold


Full Tilt Poker $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (BB): $571.00
BTN/SB: $416.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with Q T
BTN/SB raises to $12, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($24.00) 3 Q 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $18.00, Hero calls $18

Turn: ($60.00) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $36.00, Hero calls $36

River: ($132.00) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $52.00, Hero calls $52

Final Pot: $236.00
Hero shows Q T
BTN/SB shows 2 8
Hero wins $235.50
(Rake: $0.50)


Full Tilt Poker $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (BB): $603.50
BTN/SB: $598.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with Q 8
BTN/SB raises to $12, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($24.00) 8 Q T (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $16.00, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($56.00) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $42.00, Hero calls $42

River: ($140.00) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $234.00, Hero calls $234

Final Pot: $608.00
Hero shows Q 8
BTN/SB shows 4 K
Hero wins $607.50
(Rake: $0.50)


After this last hand he made a very visible shift in his style. Obviously the above hands show that he doesn't play all that well, but he's certainly reacting to what i'm doing with either aggression or passiveness, not to mention pretty tough bet sizing. I flatted AA pre a few hands later and he only cbet the flop and turn, completely shut down on river with air, which was the first time he had done that. A few hands later I tried floating ace high to a cbet and he gave up and i took down the pot on the river. At first I was convinced that the 3 hands happening in succession have shut down his bluffing, but then he takes this line, starting with his first donkbet. This is maybe 15 hands after my AA hand that I described, and it's a long 15 hands since he one tables and thinks very hard about every decision. His timing in the hand in question was very much in line with his timing in other hands.

Questions I'd think are relevant include: can he be valuebetting a worse hand here? What do you expect an overbet to mean in this case given that his last overbet got snapped by my Q8s?

Note that his flop+turn sizing are about $1-3 smaller than usual, take that as you will. Villain has also been 3betting 40% up to this point, so the flat call is somewhat unusual. The only other time he flat called was on hand one, where he check/folded the flop. I'd estimate that his range is pretty polar here, but I'd imagine he's aware enough to realize that if he was bluffing on the flop+turn this is a great river to continue on. His past bluffs reflect a decent understanding of good spots to give up and not give up imo, even though all the bluffs were piled in succession. I'll just stop typing and give you the hand.

Full Tilt Poker $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (BTN/SB): $874.50
BB: $505.50

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN/SB with A K
Hero raises to $12, BB calls $8

Flop: ($24.00) 5 4 8 (2 players)
BB bets $16.00, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($56.00) A (2 players)
BB bets $39.00, Hero calls $39

River: ($134.00) Q (2 players)
BB bets $242.00

he has taken stab when u had checked , i suppose there is no much history in donks pots.
he has taken different bet sizes in all hands...

i just think he bet small OTT with a FD or something like 89, 87...

i think there are less combos XXdd than 87,89 or something like that not 3bet pre. but he not always turn into a bluff 89,87...

+1 his range is polarized...

im not feeling comfortable calling here, specially as the way he has played i prefer waiting a better spot...

tough spot

Has he donkedbetted/barrel/shove before in single raised pots? If its his first time, I think I might tend towards a fold against him even if he's hyper aggro. Just feel like he can have a lot of things here for value on this board texture, especially with this river, and he would certainly shove a decent range of value hands that beat you but are worse than flushes... Oh I dunno if I peel flop against him.

flop seems kinda std to me but maybe i'm forgetting where my fold button is recently. we're frequently ahead with AK high and he can use cards that pair our hand as barrel cards, not to mention we have a big diamond.

and yea, this is his first donkbet. obviously as i showed he hates to give up on barreling, but he's given up more often than not in the recent past.

these spots are always so tough for the reasons you describe. i'd usually go by recent history of passiveness to decide. it seems like him giving up for a few times has indicated that he recognizes what his image is and is waiting for a spot to capitalize on it. or maybe he's just fkn psycho? usually i'd go with the former though vs someone you described as having little evidence he's a long time loser (although the hhs you posted might indicate that).

i might also make the decision based on other recent hands of the match. Did he win or lose a big pot recently? Did he have to make a tough fold recently? Had he been folding to a lot of 3bets recently? Something else to make him frustrated? Was it smooth sailing for the last 40 hands and now this has shown up?

it's kinda like those spots where pf someone is 4betting you over and over and you finally fight back and they have it, and it's like "wtf how can he have it this time he's 4bet me 100x" and it's like "well, he probably took advantage of you the first few times, realized what his image was, and only kept 4betting because he kept getting dealt hands"

hmmm, i think i like folding flop to his donk bet, but i can see merits to other play, depends a lot on gameflow/timing as to what i'd do...after we flat, turn is standard, river is tough because you've caught him overbet bluffing which makes me lean towards thinking he's not bluffing, but you're hand doesn't look incredibly strong either which may make it seem a good spot to bluff...i think this might be a fold, but i may call in practice...i'm interested in his timing on his bets, especially the river, was he instabetting, or thinking a bit then betting, or hitting the time button...

With sets, str, flush and even A with 8, 5 and 4 two pairs all in his shoving range i would fold to the overbet. He could be bluffing but i dont think he is bluffing enough to make the overbet call profitable.

What were youre adjustments to his 40% 3bet? Do you think he has any reasons to flat a big hand here pre? And how much have you been cbetting? I think that in general on this board he should expect you to be checking back a decent amount and so maybe this makes it more likely that he is going for value or is semibluffing rather than taking a stab with pure air. Also I dont think that he is all that polarized in this spot. Besides the flush and straight he could obv do this with 55,44,88 and I wouldnt be suprised if this guy shows up with A5, A4, A8, Q8 or even 54 here. So I´d fold this I guess.

any chance he's valuebetting worse?

eh, i kinda doubt it.

i like what WOT said about him seeming to recognize his image. sucks, but i think i would fold.

cool hand and i flip a coin and hope it lands on call lol cause you can't win by folding and i don't like to fold. usually the 2nd time they get looked up by overbet, its the nizzzzles though, so probably fold.

pretty useless post by me

It sucks, because villain could have missed gutshot, gutty+pair, or turn weak hand into bluff, given the Ace turned and then boom, broadway Queen completing flush, so he was like, oh boom, i bet, don't give a fk. Also, he COULD valubet weaker one pair aces also.
I'm a blufftard and also callstation monkey. I'd try not to level myself here much about what he thinks about what i think, whould he do this or not blah blah... I'd call here probably in actual game.

meh just from previous hands and game flow i end up calling here, as a standard line I fold.

yeah, this sums up my thoughts pretty well too, but its so so so ****ing hard to click fold in game when you have all this past history of him being a complete doofus. to be honest though, i even left out a couple spewy hands that he piled on in succession early in the match, and i still think he could beat 1/2-2/4. he just really puts you to a tough decision every single hand and i think a lot of regs would have trouble against him if they weren't running well.

anyways thanks for the comments guys, i definitely wanted this to be more of a gameflow discussion than a 'you have top pair against a ******' thread and fortunately it went in that direction. i'm pretty sure this is a fold, but obviously i didn't make it.

edit: by the way, are you guys always playing flop+turn this way? i know there was some discussion on it but i think they're at least semi-interesting, and there's certainly merit to raising the turn imo, but i decided against it because every time i reopen the action against this guy he puts me in another ****ty spot.

Is jamming this river as a bluff any good? It seems like we wouldn't always raise Axd Kxd other just flush draws into his donks or at least I wouldn't based on dynamic of match and his high barreling frequencies. We have the K of d and he should be 3bing his Ax suited more often than flatting since you said he's an agro 3bettor . Plus he could be trying to get value from a 2 pair hand cause he might be expecting you to call as light as 99+. I know it's practically a minraise on riv but that shouldn't matter since he should never be expecting you to bluff here.

I skimmed as per usual, but judging from the two previous hands posted, I really don't see how you could ever fold.

i think his range is pretty much flush or air here, possibly the occasional set or flopped straight, so i didnt even really consider it and i don't think it's a very good option.

Given that he seems capable of noticing his own image and how you're responding to that, it's reasonable to expect him to think you have hands like 66/77/99/TT, 56, 57, 86, 87 that will happily call down a double barrel on that kind of board texture.

I'm not sure... I guess what I'm trying to say is you have a hand which is a lot stronger than your perceived range.

i agree with this, but is there anything in his range between my hand and my perceived range?

There was later content you may have missed.

I probably fold flop but I'm a noob.

I'm incredibly nervous on the river.

I don't see how you could fold with the previous information you provided. I would say to myself if I call instead of raising on turn; then I have to call any river. You should expect him to overshove rivers according to his line no? Thats what he did so I call and consider myself unlucky if beat.

I can't see cold calling turn and folding river to this guy....seems like it would be a mistake regardless of outcome of the hand.

your post implies that the river doesnt change anything, while it changes everything. of course i was planning on calling blanks

The line I would take would be to pop him on turn; putting him on a drawing hand or a hand worse the ak. While the river cards make this call much tougher; ultimately I like to avoid a tough call on this type of board by popping turn giving me the odds for easy call on river.

The river card sucks for your hand, but it is a great card for a aggro- to overbet. The question is how often would he overbet this river after the way previous streets were played. It seems that he would frequently do so representin a strong hand.

Thinking players usually aren't this transparent with flush draws, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have one; just that with info provided, I would says the odds say call.

A lot of times you catch someone taking the same non standard line with which they got caught bluffing earlier with a strong hand; looking to get paid off. A thinking player knows this and can use reverse psychology on you and take the same line twice with a second bluff attempt; knowing that you know they did this earlier and got caught, but believing they would not do it again. But that does rely on them believing you are also a thinking player.


In fewer words(what the river card changes)...If he was on a bluff, he got there. If he was on a draw or made hand, he got there or was already there.

To me, it is worth a call to find out what his current state of mind is and without fear of being able to outplay him until he quits.

While I think you a beat here a decent amount...are you beat 66% of the time?


sry about winded post...but one last thought. If I was in same situation, I wouldn't be thrashing my brain with putting him on draw rather questioning whether he got there with AQ. I still call of course and move to next hand with some good gained info. All my actions rely on knowing he is a thinking player; not a button smasher.

AQ is prolly not in his range, well, it shouldn't be.

i really dont see any bluffing range otr!
yeah, we are underreped but the diamond river is such a good card for a "standard" donking range and i think he doest expects us to fold an ace like ever plus we have flushes in our range too.
im folding.