Villain has won about 60k in hu sngs. 8k games 200ish av buy in. In the last 6 mo he has played less than 500 matches w abi $33.

We had this previous 1 hand match earlier in the night. Other than that we haven't had any big hands. He hasn't donked into me more than once before the hand in question.

Previous match

Poker Stars $2000.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN/SB): $1500.00
BB: $1500.00

Pre Flop: ($30.00) Hero is BTN/SB with J Q
Hero raises to $60, BB calls $40

Flop: ($120.00) T 9 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $80.00, BB calls $80

Turn: ($280.00) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $180.00, BB raises to $600, Hero raises to $1360, BB calls $760

River: ($3000.00) T (2 players)

Final Pot: $3000.00
Hero shows J Q
BB shows 9 K
Hero wins $3000.00



Hand in question.

Poker Stars $3000.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $1485.00
Hero (BTN/SB): $1515.00

Pre Flop: ($45.00) Hero is BTN/SB with K J
Hero raises to $90, BB calls $60

Flop: ($180.00) J K Q (2 players)
BB bets $90.00, Hero raises to $300, BB raises to $510,

I have a sick feeling here. Flat? Ship? I can't really Fold?

Ship. Just so many worse hands here that will stack off.

Maybe its just because I don't see this line much that I felt it was the nuts so often. But I stoved it including alot of pair/draw hands (that I think just shove instead of min raise pretty much always) its a shove imo...I'm still not sure about his ranges...how much different are they than if he shoved?

If he did shove here I am def calling so I guess I could be being results oriented. (I shipped, he showed up w AT obv) but I really felt it was hugely weighted to hands that were crushing me at the time.

wrong thread my bad.

You have too much equity against his range not to ship here.

Flat flop.

SHIP FTW!!!!!!!

shipping flop is pretty bad as opposed to flatting

its a clear ship/fold situation tons of turn cards kill your action or improve his range and outdraw you.

The problem is his small donk/min 3bet looks inducing and super strong and you are ahead only vs QJ/AK/pair+draw and there are so many hands you are behind like sets/Straighs/better two pair i think its very close and i tend to a laydown here.

so nt true

so u saying flat to fold turn? just fold now then, villian is rarely bluffing here so i see no reason to call flop

Why? What range of hands are you targeting by flatting? His total air hands? There can't be many (if any) of those. His combo draw or pair+draw hands? Flatting seems like a good way of letting those hands c/f the turn (and give him a cheap look at a draw), since we'd be extremely unlikely to bluff the turn given previous action. His value hands (that we beat) that are looking for a safe turn? I don't think there's many of those either, and tbh if he has a hand like that I'd rather just ship now and make him decide than see an action killing/draw completing turn that screws everything up.

The only ways I see flatting making sense is if you think villain will do one of two things:
1) bet the turn with all hands that beat us and ck with all hands we beat.
2) Play his pair + draw and combo draw hands face-up on the turn (which is basically a subset of 1).
If we get this sort of near-perfect information on the turn, then yeah flatting is better. I just think villain is gonna feel pretty damn committed after puttting in 1/3 of stacks on the flop which could lead to us making mistakes on the turn given the above strategy.

how about call call call if turn river come blanks..

or call now and raise blank turn.

why play a high variance game with no clue where you're at.

and you're not even a favorite versus this range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.324% 48.19% 04.13% 35783 3067.50 { AdQd, ATs, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KTs+, QTs+, Qd9d, Qd8d, JTs, T9s, ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 47.676% 43.54% 04.13% 32332 3067.50 { KhJc }

It's pretty hard. I think if you look at his sizing you can figure out where he's at. The first hand he has 2 pair and he raises a bit more than 3X, while the 2nd hand he raises a bit less than 2X. As a general rule, min-raises = nuts so I am inclined to think that the 2nd hand is stronger than the first hand, so he probably has you beat. I'm just not sure I could find a fold in this spot even though you have a decent amount of equity.

temp, your assigning him a range we are flipping against and we get very good odds making a shove +ev. its probably better than calling and guessing if a card hits him or not...

lol shipping that all day.

Or we can call and ship a 2-8 non-diamond turn..

and that is better because?

i doubt you have more than 35% equity here. your opponent would have to be really really really bad - especially given that this flop is a terrible one to try to push you off a hand after you've raised his donk - for you to have more than 35% equity if you get all in.

fair enough. What line would you take here?

i don't know but it wouldn't be 4betting. i feel like i come across weak tight but opponent's range has to be heavily weighted towards hands that have us crushed. only a drooler would take that line with a worse hand on that board - unless there's some levelling going on at higher stakes. maybe i'm missing something and someone will enlighten me but for now i think when you weight opponent's range, it's very bad news. it's not like it's some Ace-rag flop, allowing for some levelling - this is a very bad flop for opponent to take a strong line without the goods.

edit: but when i review my own hands sometimes i'm surprised at the aggro crap bad regs do on these flops with hands that should be calling, so who knows. depends on whether this guy has a brain or not.

ohhhhh this is a $34 sng. i thought it was was high stakes HU cash. yeah just get it in - most of the winning players are terrible enough that this is a +EV spot.

ignore everything else i wrote prior.

didnt think this would get as much action as it did.

He had 8k games $200 abi, apparently he went on a 1k game be stretch and is starting over at the 34$ games? just a guess as to why he is playing so low.

Thank You for all replies.