Poker Stars $33.00+$1.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 30462
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: t1490 M = 49.67
Hero (BTN/SB): t1510 M = 50.33

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with 7 A
Hero raises to t60, BB calls t40

Flop: (t120) 5 A 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t80, BB raises to t180, Hero ?

Random player no reads.

So what's our line. fold? call...check/fold? call...call...check/fold? call...call...call? or re-raise?

I don't see how you could just fold here in position... that seems really weak to me.

his range could be A-X, many of which you are beating and it's likely he would've raised preflop A-T or better. Could also be 8-X, 67, or any two random spades.

My line would be to call on the flop, but my turn decision would be greatly influenced by the card that falls. I would love to see any offsuit A, K, Q, J, T, 7, 6, 5, 3 or 2. Anything not on the list i'd strongly consider folding to a reasonable sized turn-lead by the villain.

If one of the approved cards hits and villain checks the turn, i think a value-bet is in order. If that gets check-raised, i'm out.

lol all in (somehow)

reraising sucks, since there's only 4 worse top-pairs here which he might stack off with (A2-A4,A6)
folding sucks since we have top pair, and position, and decent pot odds

so... call! see a turn imo

Re-raising here is really bad since basically nothing we beat is continuing. Turn action?

Poker Stars $33.00+$1.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 30462
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: t1490 M = 49.67
Hero (BTN/SB): t1510 M = 50.33

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with 7 A
Hero raises to t60, BB calls t40

Flop: (t120) 5 A 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t80, BB raises to t180, Hero calls t100

Turn: (t480) Q (2 players)
BB bets t280, Hero ?

flat flop/raise turn

Yeah now u shove that turn...

this

why?
if the problem for not shoving all in on the flop was the bad kicker, nothing really changed (or will ever change unless a 7 hits).

is this shove to protect against a flush draw semi-bluff?
you would succed in it, but you're only get called by better hands...
and i don't think the opponent is on a flush draw very often.

i think calling the turn is better.
and folding to a river bet. (remember you have no reads)

no, we got a safe turn card, because his flop range includes a lot of draws. He had the equity on the flop to get it in with a lot of draws, but now he is making a mistake by calling off his stack with draws. We are still behind most Aces, but remember there are only 2 Aces in the deck. So that part of his range is slightly shrunk... It is about making villain make a mistake and i think the best way to do that is to cram the turn. Flatting only allows him to play perfectly against you on the river...

i disagree.

not really a tons of draws, the only draws on the flop are the flush draw and less likely 67.

and i don't see what mistakes villain could do here. if he calls he's almost always ahead.

and flatting doesn't allow him to play perfectly the river. unless you know he's a crazy maniac bluff shoving on the first occasion, but you have no reads here. and without reads, it's better to assume opponent is playing straightforward, or at least not crazy.

the difference between 3bet shoving the flop and shoving over his turn lead is that he has committed like 20% more of his stack to the pot by leading the turn

when we shove over his turn lead we are a lot more likely to get hero called or called down wider than we would on the flop

i call the flop, and now shove the non spade turn

so, we shove a TP mediocre kicker hoping for a fish who calls with a draw on the turn?
knowing that any decent opponent would call us only with a better hand?
and knowing the opponent has shown decent strenght on this hand and we have no reads on him?
also, i really don't know how you could put him on a draw with such confidence.

i don't do that.
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also, i'd like to know: do turbo players think very differently from regular speed player, being more prone to shove? (knowing they will have less time/opportunities)

i'm shoving this on turn in a turbo, not sure about regular speeds, i barely play those

Question is are you really committed to this hand, if you are, the calling the turn does jack, because if you are committed anyways, you will still stack off to better Ace or two pair when the river breaks or not, and calling here would only allow him to catch his draw if he is betting out a draw, if op is on draw, and river breaks he will most likely shutdown.

i play both turbos and regular speeds...my decision making process is pretty much identical in both

do you really think all he's check raising is draws on that flop?

you're not committed. why should you? after calling the turn you still have 1000 chips and blinds are 10/20.

but isn't true that the higher the blinds are the more marginal is the edge you must be willing to push?
effective stack changes when blinds increase, and turbo have an "implied" higher blind if i could say so, meaning the blinds will raise quicker thus you would have less time/opportunities to hit good hands.

it may depend a lot on pokerrooms blind structures, but playing regular vs turbo on fulltilt or ipoker you certainly have to adapt your style on the more agressive side..., thus your thought decision making process must change...

I don't think we can really ever get hero called here since there aren't really many worse made hands in villain's range. I mean I guess some guys can put in a small checkraise w/ like middle pair to "see where they're at," but it's kind of rare, and they usually don't continue on the turn. So let's do a rough equity estimate against a range of better made hands, bluffs and draws:

Against better made hands: villain's probably not getting stacks in by the river without our help, so we save money by calling down. And in this case, if a scare card comes off, it can actually save us money.

Against pure bluffs: we make more by call/call.

Against draws: Say we call/call no matter the river, and he 2/3 pots it whenever he bets river (bet of ~660). And say he's on some 9out draw so he has ~20% chance of getting there (pretty generous assumptions since he often has less outs and we can get away on, say, spade rivers). Say he calls it off bad 20% of the time and bluffs river when he misses 50% of the time.

Then,
EV_flat_turn = (.8)*((0.5)*(2020) + (0.5)*(2680)) + (0.2)*(320)=1944
EV_ship_turn = (.8)*(2020)+(.2)*(.8)*(3000) = 2096

So it seems like with these assumptions, shipping turn is better than flatting if he has a decent draw.

I won't bother messing with numbers too much, but clearly it's easy to swing the answer the other way if villain has a less than premium draw, knows how to calculate pot odds (and fold to turn shove), bluffs river with a higher frequency, and especially if we can find a fold on scary/spade rivers.

So it's close between shove and call/call if he has a draw, but call/call plays much better against bluffs and better made hands. I like call/call.