Hi
I ve recently identified a leak in my game
On a 120k hand sample at 30nl I am losing witH top pair:


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(filters: top pair, 30nl, 5-6 players).
How bad are these results? what do you think? What would be a reasonable winrate here over 90K hands?


Villain is 15/12 over 400 hands.
Ongame Network $30.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players


MP: $23.05
CO: $55.72
BTN: $40.26
Hero (SB): $30.13
BB: $18.79
UTG: $30.89

Pre Flop: ($0.45) Hero is SB with K 8
UTG raises to $1.20, MP calls $1.20, CO calls $1.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.05, BB calls $0.90

Flop: ($6.00) T K 9 (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $1.50, MP calls $1.50, CO folds, Hero raises to $4.35, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls $2.85

Turn: ($16.20) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $17.50, Hero calls $17.50

River: ($51.20) 2 (2 players)




Preflop: I m in sb but the pot is getting multiway and quite large so I call with my suited K because it plays well in large multiway pots. I need to flop a good draw.
Flop: I dont flop a good draw. I have tpbk but UTG bets small and MP calls so I bet 2/3 pot. MP call.
-turn brings a possible straight.
Should i have folded? obviously yes
Also, I am only using vpip/pfr when evaluating villain. should I use some other stats? Which ones please?
thanks

EDIT: villains stats are wrong. he is: 53/24 over 96 hands, sorry

On the flop are you raising for value, or as a bluff? If your raising for value, what worse hands are calling you? If your raising as a bluff, what better hands are folding to the minraise?

Your thought process should postflop pretty much be: I'm raising for value, targetting X, Y, Z worse hands that will call me. Or, im raising as a bluff, targetting X, Y, Z better hands that will fold.

Its more complicated than that, given that there's draws that you want protection from, AND there's later streets to play where you might be able to value bet there or bluff there to make up for a -EV move on your current street... but the basic gist of your thought process should be can I value bet or can I bluff, when your raising.

x and y happened so I do z isn't a solid thought process, and will leave you doing things without a reason.

Pre is very marginal and just call otf.

Fold pre, call flop