Villian is running at 14/10, seems nitty pre and post, especially since he's gotten deep. He should view me as tight/solid and hasn't seen me get out of line.

I think his most likely hand is Ax, prob with J or better kicker. I think he would push the flop(or reraise) with a set, and I dont think he plays a fd OOP like this. I'm obv trying to rep the flush, and my goal with the river is to make a value looking bet that gives me a good risk/reward ratio.
Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $63.45
BB: $52.30
UTG: $104.30
CO: $187.25
Hero (BTN): $164.25

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with Q K
UTG raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.00) T A 7 (3 players)
UTG checks, CO bets $4.50, Hero raises to $16, UTG folds, CO calls $11.50

Turn: ($38.00) 8 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $20, CO calls $20

River: ($78.00) 3 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $40

I like it and I don't. I'd rather do this against a less nitty player. If he's this nitty, and hasn't folded to your smalling turn bet, what makes you think he's giving up on the river? He could easily have AT here trying to show down cheap. If he has AJ+ a lot here, I like it. I don't think he's on Ax though...not at 14/10.

Curious to see what villain had.

Edit to add: I think we have a better chance at repping a flush if we smooth call the flop bet...

I don't know why you've raised the flop but once he calls the turn, anything else you put in is spew.

First of all, "3 barrel bluff" and "50NL" don't mix well...

Although I do like your aggressive play, I think its pretty unlikely he folds the river. I think you may be overestimating how much respect even a nitty player is willing to give if you think he'll fold an ace with ~jack kicker in this spot (with regards to 50NL players, I mean). Really looks like he has just decided to check/call down.

My bad, just reread OP and noticed you noted that you were trying to rep the flush.

Yeah, rather than saying that he won't muck AJ here b/c of its absolute hand value, I think the guy a couple of posts above me got it right when he said after he calls the turn, he is calling down. Pretty unlikely he is doing something like calling turn with a set hoping to fill up, and you said yourself you felt his most likely hand was like AJ... AJ doesn't call turn/fold to blank river IMO.

What's your reasoning behind the small turn bet? Would you really bet that small with a made flush?

I don't like it. I think because you are both deep this would work much better if you set it up to get your whole stack in by the river, the villain is far more likely to fold a 1 pair hand when he is pressured into playing for 3 buyins. what do you think?

if your trying to get him to fold AK bet pot on river IMO.
After the turn your bluff should be over IMO. Mainly b/c that was worst card and he still called. He will prolly call again on river.
Unless like a diamond comes. B/c he prolly only calls w/ Kd

Also if he has been sitting and waiting for 30 minutes, he really wants to win this pot for cheap.

your hand looks more like two pair or a set than a flush IMO

Now: why this bluff is good? B/c I would fold AK here all night vs you
But weve played alot. Vs a guy who I just play 1 session, I'm not gonna be 3 barreling most likely.

IMO he has Strong A (with a diamond) at least.
If he called you lighter that is really sick IMO.

Also if he folded then I'd say you were in a risky spot, but the odds of your 1/2 pot bets might have made it +EV... IDK.

I think his W@SD stats are more important than his PFR (if you have enough hands on him)

I'd say if you lost, not a big deal b/c you made really cheap bluffs, that look more legit to smart players. So if you got looked up this is not a spot to be mad.

nonononono. he's got AK or AQ about 50% of the time here, and i don't think he's going to fold.

Dont do this. He has an ace and almost zero chance that he is going to fold it. If this was a limped pot, maybe, but if he folded here its because he sucks, not because you played it well. This line is how you make money with sets

shove river innit

You owe me a new keyboard

Well I guess he sucks because he folded. Here is the chat from after the hand.

AZ_Playa25: good fold what did you have?
Villian: AQ
AZ_Playa25: good fold
Villian: thx I figured you would check behind any hand I beat, so all I was beating was a bluff
Villian: and I don't have a read that your capable of bluffing for almost a full buy in lol

Yea unfortunately I've seen results now but there is definitely a chance that he will fold an ace to pressure (esp because he didn't rr pre so isn't that likely to have top top or AQ), and him calling the turn does not mean he will call the river as well. (I don't know why everyone loves to say that so much.)

That said, if you're going to do this I think you should bet a bit bigger on the turn and river. If you keep half-potting it you are going to tease him into looking you up. I don't think he will perceive it as an obvious valuebet as most tags go for value by pumping it.

I also think flop is probably spew.

Edit: Chat after the hand, however, is excellent.

ah crap i thought UTG was the villain. that changes a lot. i'm glad i left some weaselling room in my response.

I was thinking about this a bit more. you quite often get folds from Ax I think. I do think if he has AQ/K he will really often be calling, and AT is also quite likely given different pf action to what i thought.

I think its pretty ****ing hard to call the river with top pair, and it would be even difficult to call with a set.

Like the dude said he'd need some sort of indication AZPlaya pulled large bluffs regularly.

don't really like your bet sizing fwiw.

I actually like it and would be hard pressed to call the river against certain players.

But not against YOU. I SNAP CALL your bet in a second.

By the way, you were a spew-monkey last night. WTF?

hmm i think this hand comes down to whether he thinks you would reraise on the flop with a fd. if he doesnt buy it he prob gunna c/c all streets letting you bluff off your chips or not be able to get away from the ahnd. whats your table image like? do you do this often? villian does look like he has an ace and wont fold it. I prob would have shut down after the turn but really you should have shut down after the flop.

value looking bet on the end looks a bit small i would have bet out $60. Logic dictates that if you make a flush you would want to get payed so betting your amount would be more realistic but i find at this level not many people think like that or if they do they just can't resist the pot odds

yeah Dominic I actually played pretty well overall and ended up +3 buys, but for some reason I kept spewing against you. I'm sure you didn't mind...

Not to be results oriented but I do like it also. I think if youre going to do a triple barrel it might as well be against a nitty guy. Also, for all those saying because he called the turn means he calls the river, I think thats incorrect. I dont know why he cant have a pair and strong diamond on the turn or even a stubborn two pair that is hoping you check behind on the river. I think I would be folding alot of my range here on the river especially if the guy looks solid. We are quite deep and I think very few people are triple barrel bluffing.

Don't like it. If you really want to make him fold a good A you need to bet more.

you picked a good player to bluff IMO.....

Against a thinking player why cant this look like a clear value bet?

Personally I would v-bet more with a flush, unless I think he's unlikely to call a bigger bet in which case I would bet smaller,which is the reason betting small here isn't good. Unless we know he know we know he's a nit and would v-bet small with a flush vs him. But as far a we know he's just a nit. So vs this player I like betting smaller to get paid off with a strong hand, and that's why I don't like betting small as a bluff.

LOL results get posted and then it becomes +EV