UTG is unknown and has played one orbit, raising twice. I think I like donking a board that's this scary better than I like c/r because he can cb some pretty good hands and then I lose the threat of three barrels.

I think he raises almost all flushes on the turn, so I think after the turn most of his range is pairs T+ many of them with flush or straight draw.

I check the river because I don't think I get a third bet out of the pairs that I beat (AT, KT, QT). I also think that if he tries to go for value with with an overpair/2pair that I can take him off of it with a c/r.

All that sound reasonable, or is it too rare in his mind that I take this line with a flush?

$3/$6 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($610)
CO ($1,088.35)
BTN ($129)
SB ($96)
Hero ($600)

Pre-Flop: ($9, 5 players) Hero is BB A J
UTG raises to $18, 3 folds, Hero calls $12

Flop: 10 8 7 ($39, 2 players)
Hero bets $30, UTG calls $30

Turn: 4 ($99, 2 players)
Hero bets $84, UTG calls $84

River: J ($267, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $150, Hero goes all-in $468

mother of god no.

you would never take this line with a flush on the river

Yea, I don't think hes betting really thin on this river that's folding easily to a c/r. I don't think he necessarily riases all flushes on the turn. Hell, he should call most of em to not stack himself vs higher flushes and call the nut flush to keep you in (if you have a flush hes stacking u anyways) and by caling he also allows you to keep bluffing.

Yea, i think this is a i can't call so I'm just going to go all in kind of logic. I either like a bomb on river to rep something really strong or just c/f.

I would either c/f or c/c that river, but rarely ever check raise. He may likely call with a 9 assuming he is chopping. Would you ever check that river with a flush? Plus his stats are of the passive variety and he will be checking back a lot of this river, whereas other players will be going for light value with those same hands.

I don't think he ever bets an overpair on this river. His line includes some flushes too, so I don't like. Even if you would play a flush like this, I think making him fold 9x is tenuous @ best

I think this is pretty much right on. I still assume that unknowns will raise most of their flushes on the turn because they don't want to get outdrawn/lose action on the river (whether or not that's the right way to play), but that doesn't mean that I can c/r them off of anything.

The 2nd to last sentence is pretty accurate... I was prompted to post this because I was talking to someone on IM and not really paying attention when I made this play. I just had a spur of the moment "Hey, he doesn't have many nutted hands, time to go all-in" reaction and was mad at myself afterwards.

I think for this play to be right I need an opponent type that doesn't really exist:
- almost always raises turned flushes
- value bets thin/calls off light
- doesn't know I'd rarely play flushes like this

I think it basically comes down to a sloppy and incomplete thought process on my part. Thanks for the comments. Next time I post a hand I'll try to pick something a little more interesting rather than just one that annoyed me.

turn is bad

hes got a lot of 9x in his range

if you wanna bluff open shove the river