Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (CO): $2.44
BTN: $2.00
SB: $3.61
BB: $3.06
UTG: $1.69

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with A Q
UTG calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, BB calls $0.06, UTG calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.25) J 5 T (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.10, BB calls $0.10, UTG folds

Turn: ($0.45) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.24, BB calls $0.24

River: ($0.93) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

I seem to encounter this situation a lot, where people play passively the entire hand but then bet big on the river. I always force myself to conclude they either have a monster or air. Is this a reasonable assumption? Should I lean more towards them actually having a real hand? Results below.

I think calling is good here. We don't have to be good very often. Villain can be value/block betting worse 1P hands and bluffing Q9/98.

In this situation I find villain shows up with KQ or a flopped two pair, but sometimes he shows up with 98 for the missed draw. I don't think we can ever fold to his river bet.

I would say bet more on flop and bet more on turn if you decide you are betting it.

River is inconsequential. It's very unlikely that that hit is range by the river. The only way that river hits him is if he's floating two streets with 42 or 33 and both of those are folding the flop. When he leads the river, the bottom of his value range is 2P and it looks like TPTK although generally if it isn't a bluff it's going to be something that beats TPTK.

Also either cbet bigger (at least 1/2 pot, but close to 3/4 or 4/5) on the flop or don't cbet at all. As a general rule your bets on any street should be at least 3/4 pot imo to maximize either your fold equity or value.

And yes, usually when ppl show strength at micros unless they're a maniac, they have it as a general rule. In this hand there aren't too many draws that missed except the two straight draws (89 and Q9) but the bet is relatively small so I'd look it up and make a note on the player. In this case, the note would be: "doesn't 3bet AK, floats J-high flop to weak cbet, c/c A turn and leads blank river 1/2 pot."

a lot of ppl dont 3bet with AK in 2nl, probably because they dont know what to do after the flop if they completely miss. the river was a call imo (at least in 2nl)

There's no way Im folding this river for a hpsb at 2nl. Expect villain to show up with weaker aces a lot as well as utter garbage a lot of the time. Nice hand unlucky.

Thanks guys.

@Prodigy: the thread title meant was the river bet a red flag, not the river card. I wasn't very worried about that 3.

I guess I need to increase my bets? I pretty much have been betting 1/2 pot for all my bets, cbets and for value.

Ah gotcha.

And yeah definitely up that to at least 3/4 pot. You're missing out on so much value and FE.

what kind of situations would i vary my bet sizes? Should I up it if there are scary draws on the board? Any reason to ever bet less?

I feel like post flop bet sizing is one area I have found very little or no info on in books.

The drawier the board, the bigger your betsize because there's more hands for him to want to continue with. So a board like Ks Qs 7h you want to be betting bigger (like 3/4-4/5 pot). Flops that are dry and it's unlikely your opponent has a strong enough hand to continue with equity-wise, like Ks 4d 2h, bet slightly smaller (between 1/2 pot to 1/4 pot is good). You should vary your betsizing due to board texture, not your hand value, as that is exploitative.