Villain was 30/10 over 10 hands, so no reads.
Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
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CO: $2.00
BTN: $2.05
SB: $1.36
BB: $3.31
UTG: $1.96
Hero (UTG+1): $2.84
MP: $1.44
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG+1 with Q
Q
UTG calls $0.02,
Hero raises to $0.08,
5 folds, UTG calls $0.06
First off, what's villain limping UTG here with that
also lends itself to calling a raise? I was thinking the better half of what his 30% VP$P lends itself to. Pokerstove says 30% is 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o. I'm trying not to trivially throw out parts of his range, as I'm very new to this, but intuitively I feel as if he'd ditch going forward with the unsuited connectors, two-gapers, and **** Ks and Qs. With that, narrowing his range to 15% seems reasonably, which leaves us with 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo. Against this range, I'm roughly a 70/40 favorite going into the flop.
Flop: ($0.19) 6
T
6
(2 players)
UTG bets $0.20,
Hero raises to $0.60, UTG calls $0.40
Here, I feel like his bet could serve 1 of 2 purposes. He's throwing out a c-bet with air to take down the pot, or he's v-betting 'cause he hit or he's holding a 10s or higher. I'm fairly confident he isn't holding a 6, 'cause it wouldn't make since for him to go ahead with any 6x hand, unless of course the range I put him on is wrong and he's in love with Ax hands. Regardless, the odds of him having A6 is slim with the board as it is. I'm almost completely throwing 66 out the window here.
That being said, I raise. His call verifies that he hit or is holding 10s or larger. So, we can now narrow down his range to TT+, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo, which I'm roughly a 2:1 favorite. I'm fairly confident I'm way ahead here.
Turn: ($1.39) 9
(2 players)
UTG checks,
Hero ?
This is where I get stuck. The check scares me, and I don't know if it should. He's either checking to induce a bet in which I feel he'd raise over me and then I'm sure I'm beat or he can't let go of his Tx hand. The only thing beating me is a 6x hand, TT, KK+. Do I bet here and fold to a shove? Do I check back? Any help is appreciated.