Is it silly for me to try to protect my 99 type hands on the turn? What do you think he checks back river with and will he put money in thinner vs a check/call check shove line vs a bet/shove line vs a bet/bet line? FWIW this isn't a common spot for me (I dont often call like 99 vs 2nl regs preflop) so balance is a weak argument IMO.

Playing vpip in the 30's and villain is like 22/20 and not spewy so far.



[converted_hand][hand_history]Party, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37661692

BTN: $2.06 (103 bb)
MP: $5.33 (266.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $2 (100 bb)
SB: $2.01 (100.5 bb)
BB: $2.84 (142 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J J
MP calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.08, BTN raises to $0.24, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.16

Flop: ($0.53) J 4 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($0.53) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.38, Hero calls $0.38

River: ($1.29) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks?

As played, I think he's arriving with his complete 3-bet range on the river.
I think all hands that will call a bet, probably will also bet this river
Assuming his range is something like QQ+,AK,AQs, and some 32 bluff combos as well
He will probably check back with all AK and the majority of his bluff hands. However he will maybe fire a 2nd barrel with some of these hands. So checking will get bets from around 20 combos of that range or about 25% I think whereas betting will be called by about the same range as he might elect to bluff catch with some of his better unpaired hands
I'm no big fan of this line though.
I think you can easily donk the flop as you will have plenty of draws and 4's in your range to mask this monster. You might even get it allin if your opponent is a bit agro with an overpair or strong draw
Just my 2p

i prefer betting turn after he checked back flop. As played, you can also raise turn turn and expect to get called with a str8draw/FD on the board.

c/r river looks good if he has a queen he will bet again if he doesnt well he wasnt gonna call anyway