I showed this hand to some friends, and they thought it was a nitty fold. But Ive played almost 200,000 hands of micros, so I have a good idea of when I am beat. It's a really close spot. Opinions?

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $3.78 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
SB: $3.52 (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
BB: $2.80 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
Hero (UTG): $4.23
MP: $4.09 (VPIP: 20.93, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 43)
CO: $2.81 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 2)

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A Q

Hero raises to $0.06, fold, CO calls $0.06, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.15, 2 players) A T 2
Hero bets $0.09, CO calls $0.09

Turn: ($0.33, 2 players) A
Hero bets $0.18, CO calls $0.18

River: ($0.69, 2 players) 3
Hero bets $0.38, CO raises to $1.30, fold

CO wins $1.40

Hmm no info on v. I can't help but feel this is a call from me though. Would he really be calling all the way with 33? Slow played 10's or 2's getting max value on river or busted spade flush hmmmm

Yeah this seems like a really tight fold. Are you putting him on pocket Tens? Or deuces? There's no way pocket threes is sticking around that long. Could also be a busted flush. What do you think he had that got you to fold?

you have to call.

If he wins so be it he played it tricky

cannot fold here i think

this is not a tight fold, this is a snap fold
btw bet bigger on all streets

This. Trust your instincts.

You've just saved 46BB. GG imo.

Oh, also bet bigger for value on all streets.

I should value bet more on flop and turn. I normally value bet, at these limits, for around 85% pot, don't know why I choose 50% in this hand.

Villain might be capable of raising worse As for value (AJ, A9, A8) but generally Ive learnt that most players are really passive at these limits, and will just call with those kinds of hands.

It could also be a missed flush draw, but I don't think many players are capable of turning their hand into a bluff with a river check raise. It would be a crazy bluff.

33 is very unlikely, but I think A2, AT, A3 or 22 are all very likely.

I think its a tough, annoying, but correct fold.

Really a snap fold? Against an unknown?

Yeh, I think so. A river raise, from someone at the micros is 95% of the time a monster. Most players are not capable of doing that with air.

Call. 2NL guys do completely random things that defy logic. He could just as easily flatted a worse Ax and be scared of the flush draws OTT. Even with a highly developed soul read based on 200k hands you just can't fold this when both draws whiff and you're betting 1/2 pot. For the times you actually are behind, feel content in the fact that villain's tricky play caused him not to be able to get his stack in OTR.

Not that it matters but would OP be willing to post his VPIP/PFR for information purposes?

my VPIP/PFR or the villains?

I asked for his but I meant yours please.

There are reasons to check flop and potcontrol from the begining. As played I fold river too, call is not terrible but probably light minus.

You should move up, dont stay at this limit.

I lost a decent bit trying to win a tournament, grinding it up again.

Tournaments are hard to win.

Yeah let's rotate some shots at higher stakes. Stagnating at 2NL will stunt your progress. GL

nh

could also x flop with Qs but at 2nl I would just play it like you did pretty much every time vs an unknown

Haven't played nearly as many hands as you, but my experience has also been that when you get these river shoves at 2NL it is more often than not the sign of a monster. It also seems like these are not the hands where someone would make most of their money at 2NL, but could certainly be leaking $$. Sucks but at least you got out for the minimum price.

Nice giraffe Matthew, wp. Also, I agree with all posters itt suggesting you move up asap, or at least try/shot NL5.