PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players

BB: 43 BB (VPIP: 43.48, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
UTG: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 10.14, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 69)
UTG+1: 325 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
UTG+2: 88.5 BB (VPIP: 10.34, PFR: 8.62, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 58)
Hero (MP): 109 BB
MP+1: 76 BB (VPIP: 2.86, PFR: 2.86, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 36)
CO: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
SB: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 29)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) 5 4 T
SB checks, BB bets 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, BB raises to 18 BB


This hand happened earlier today and it had got me thinking, how ofter are we ahead or behind here?

Are we looking to get it in, or an easy fold?

Easy jam given stack sizes. We have 36bb in the pot, BB has 22bb behind, we jam 22bb to win 58bb assuming he always calls. So we need 27.5% equity against him. If he only ever has sets and 2 pairs, no flush or straight draws or Tx here then fine but we need a very good read to make that assumption.

I think you could improve your wr by raising more preflop with your monster hands, esp when you have stations behind. go for 4x,5x, 2nl players won't care.

Flop is a raise and you can shove without a problem vs short fish, obv gonna run into sets sometimes but they spazz a ton.

If he was a nitreg donking on a wet flop into 2 players and then reraising flop - you could be looking at sets or some two pairs.

Easy shove here, never folding.