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NLZ - Does villain have enough bluffs on this river? NLZ - Does villain have enough bluffs on this river?

01-04-2023 , 09:00 AM
PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $12.32 (49 bb)
MP: $26.80 (107 bb)
CO: $25.00 (100 bb)
BU: $25.00 (100 bb)
SB: $20.36 (81 bb)
BB (Hero): $37.52 (150 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with Q K
3 players fold, BTN raises to $0.62, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets to $2.75, BTN calls $2.13

Flop: ($5.60) 9 J 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.77, BTN calls $1.77

Turn: ($9.14) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.37, BTN calls $4.37

River: ($17.88) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $16.11 (all-in), Hero calls $16.11


Villain is 20/19/7 over 146.

Mixing with this hand pre, but this time I felt saucy.

Happy for discussion on all streets. Wasn't certain about turn bet or sizing, and wasn't sure about best line on river.
NLZ - Does villain have enough bluffs on this river? Quote
01-04-2023 , 09:22 AM
I'd probably call, you block the straight. Although I'm not really sure what bluffs V has by the river - expect to run into 99 or JJ a fair bit. I guess their bluffs would be 78, T9.

I'd probably call but thinking about it not sure call is the best play as I think the pool doesn't find enough bluffs. Make a note on V and move on.

I think the turn size is too small, I'd either x or bet 2/3rd
NLZ - Does villain have enough bluffs on this river? Quote
01-04-2023 , 09:34 AM
I dont like the turn bet. If you are going to bet it I'd go bigger like 3/4 pot or check.

I dont think he calls twice and then jams river as a bluff so fold.
NLZ - Does villain have enough bluffs on this river? Quote
01-04-2023 , 09:42 AM
Just had a look in Wizard (wanted to give my opinion first) and it's actually checking 76% on the flop which makes sense, these J high relatively connected boards are usually good for the BTN (on this texture they have 52% vs our 48% equity)

Turn size is actually ok but our combo prefers 50-75% bet

River it is blocking with our hand for 33% 100% of the time

when we X river and V jams we are pure calling

V is supposed to be bluffing 55, 65, 67, 78, 98, AQ. Apart from 78 and 98 they likely fold turn with the rest of those hands though, maybe they could show up with AQ. Also most people in the pool don't turn pairs into bluffs.

Still think I'd call because our hand wants to & we get more info on V but in practice the way people play in the pool they likely don't have many bluffs
NLZ - Does villain have enough bluffs on this river? Quote

      
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