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25NL Whats the play here? 25NL Whats the play here?

11-06-2008 , 04:50 PM
The villain has been playing more aggressive than most but not donkeyish so whats the play here im not sure if i wanted to bet fold turn or check call turn to get value from hands i beat.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Journeyman54 (UTG+1): $25.00
Gerrard37 (UTG+2): $50.00
t3ddypok3r (MP1): $114.15
MarloBStanfield (MP2): $21.00
Spindlemonkey (CO): $31.90
stickit1976 (BTN): $57.05
Hero (SB): $40.90
seumpapeu (BB): $26.20
10GrapeDrink10 (UTG): $68.85

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with A A
5 folds, Spindlemonkey raises to $0.85, stickit1976 calls $0.85, Hero raises to $3.65, 2 folds, stickit1976 calls $2.80

Flop: ($8.40) T 6 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $8.40, stickit1976 calls $8.40

Turn: ($25.20) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, stickit1976 checks

River: ($25.20) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, stickit1976 bets $45 all in,
Spoiler:
Final Pot: Hero calls $28.85 all in
$82.90
stickit1976 shows Jh 9h (Queen Jack high)
Hero shows As Ac (a pair of Aces)
Hero wins $79.90
(Rake: $3.00)
25NL Whats the play here? Quote
11-06-2008 , 05:02 PM
i mean you won but i doubt he has a bluff >33% of the time
25NL Whats the play here? Quote
11-06-2008 , 05:25 PM
Instafold IMO.. Aggree with bottomset. He don't bluff >33% of the time.. And else; I would Bet turn for Value and to Protect our Hand against Flushes
25NL Whats the play here? Quote
11-06-2008 , 05:34 PM
I'd bet the turn and also don't like the river call.
25NL Whats the play here? Quote
11-06-2008 , 05:42 PM
I also snap fold and am pretty confident that's right, but you know... OP might not be THAT crazy to call.

If Villain has a low diamond, he wouldn't likely shove this river; even bad players have some understanding of showdown value and not turning a mediocre made hand into a bluff. He would check a low diamond (or two low diamonds) behind.

If Villain has a high diamond, A or K, would he really overshove the river? He would much more likely make a smaller bet to make sure he makes some money with his nuts.

If Villain had made a flush on the turn... well, bad players like to slowplay, so it's possible. (But it still reverts to one of the two above scenarios on the river.) But usually you'd expect at least some kind of small bet on the turn to keep money moving into the pot if he has the nuts, or to protect his hand if he has a lower flush (Hero could easily be holding the A or K if I'm not, from Villain's perspective).

I don't know if this was really OP's thought process or if it was just 'eh, could be a bluff, I hate folding aces, I call', but the more you look it over, the more Villain's overshove doesn't really line up with the story he's trying to tell (I have a strong flush). And we beat pretty much any non-flush he might show up with, because once again, any non-flush hand stronger than one pair is happy to check behind the river and see a showdown.
25NL Whats the play here? Quote
11-06-2008 , 07:09 PM
zeth, to pick up on your hand analysis, i think villain also has a set a decent amount of time here too.

edit.... villain checked turn... so please disregard

Last edited by insomniac86; 11-06-2008 at 07:14 PM. Reason: made a mistake
25NL Whats the play here? Quote
11-06-2008 , 07:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeth
I also snap fold and am pretty confident that's right, but you know... OP might not be THAT crazy to call.

If Villain has a low diamond, he wouldn't likely shove this river; even bad players have some understanding of showdown value and not turning a mediocre made hand into a bluff. He would check a low diamond (or two low diamonds) behind.

If Villain has a high diamond, A or K, would he really overshove the river? He would much more likely make a smaller bet to make sure he makes some money with his nuts.

If Villain had made a flush on the turn... well, bad players like to slowplay, so it's possible. (But it still reverts to one of the two above scenarios on the river.) But usually you'd expect at least some kind of small bet on the turn to keep money moving into the pot if he has the nuts, or to protect his hand if he has a lower flush (Hero could easily be holding the A or K if I'm not, from Villain's perspective).

I don't know if this was really OP's thought process or if it was just 'eh, could be a bluff, I hate folding aces, I call', but the more you look it over, the more Villain's overshove doesn't really line up with the story he's trying to tell (I have a strong flush). And we beat pretty much any non-flush he might show up with, because once again, any non-flush hand stronger than one pair is happy to check behind the river and see a showdown.

So you are saying I made call of year?
25NL Whats the play here? Quote
11-06-2008 , 08:12 PM
Ehhhh... not really. Even with all that it's still probably a fold because your odds aren't that great. It's more of a 'Villain's line is pretty dumb, let's make sure we don't do that' thing.

What was YOUR thought process when you called? Honestly?
25NL Whats the play here? Quote
11-06-2008 , 09:20 PM
The reason why you got bluffed out of this hand (although you called, but I think it's a fold on that river) is because you didn't bet the turn. I'd bet 17 to 20$ there unless villan is a nit. The board is dangerously wet, there are a lot of worse made hands or draws calling and on the river effective stacks are so small we'll never fold, even with a 4th diamond coming. If he sucked out, he sucked out, he didn't had the odds.

Because you didn't commit on the turn, there was still a lot of cash behind and you gave villan the opportunity to suck out on you or bluff you out of the pot. You called anyway, you can consider yourself lucky, because in the most cases you'll have to reload.
25NL Whats the play here? Quote
11-06-2008 , 10:59 PM
Def bet turn, he could have an overpair JJ+ with a diamond. I'd snap-fold river, AA just a bluff-catcher here...
25NL Whats the play here? Quote
11-07-2008 , 01:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeth
Ehhhh... not really. Even with all that it's still probably a fold because your odds aren't that great. It's more of a 'Villain's line is pretty dumb, let's make sure we don't do that' thing.

What was YOUR thought process when you called? Honestly?

I honestly thought I had him crushed especially when he checked back turn so instead of betting that river and folding out all better hands ill let this guy shove and im willing to bet my hand is good. If I check that river it allows him to bluff and pay me off. I know its risky but I came to gamble.
25NL Whats the play here? Quote

      
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