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25nl turn Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, <img .25 BB (6 handed) - [url=http://poker-tools.flovs reg 25nl turn Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, <img .25 BB (6 handed) - [url=http://poker-tools.flovs reg

05-04-2011 , 06:49 PM
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($46.15)
Hero (SB) ($25.85)
BB ($6.50)
UTG ($25.38)
MP ($8.90)
CO ($26.85)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 8
3 folds, Button bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75) 10, 3, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1.16, Hero calls $1.16

Turn: ($4.07) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2.71, Hero raises $6.95, Button raises $41.53 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $17.97

vs standard reg with 30 st, AF: 4 who doesn't generaly over value his hands.
I debated alot about the turn raise because I originally felt that he has a lot of draws in his range +Tx type hands that will call my raise on the turn and fold a river brick. I thought they far exceeded as far as combos vs nutted range (because this is 25nl I am assuming KQ+ is nutted and wont fold)

Now I am debating if that was the correct play? its really hard to criticize your own game...
25nl turn Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, <img .25 BB (6 handed) - [url=http://poker-tools.flovs reg Quote
05-04-2011 , 06:51 PM
Snap fold turn without stats.
What's his flop cbet and turn cbet%?
25nl turn Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, <img .25 BB (6 handed) - [url=http://poker-tools.flovs reg Quote
05-04-2011 , 06:53 PM
I am not asking about how to play vs his 3bet on the turn, I am asking if raising his turn cbet is a +ev play, the 3bet i just added because I'm an idiot. its not really relevant.

to your question: flop cbet 84, turn cbet 40.
25nl turn Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, <img .25 BB (6 handed) - [url=http://poker-tools.flovs reg Quote
05-04-2011 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by filth
I am not asking about how to play vs his 3bet on the turn, I am asking if raising his turn cbet is a +ev play, the 3bet i just added because I'm an idiot. its not really relevant.

to your question: flop cbet 84, turn cbet 40.
When I said snap fold turn, I meant fold to initial turn bet.

Well let's see his turn stats says "I don't double barrel light fella". Which means we are massively behind. Which reduces the likehood of getting a fold.
Why would you assume his range is Tx heavy? Cause he bet Txx flop? With 84 flop cbet%? You think he needs a pair, let alone a TP to cbet a flop?

I don't see anything weaker than QJ, maybe AKs with a FD. Can you get him off QJ? Maybe. What's his WTSD.
I'd have to do a more thorough calc, but superficially looking at his stats, I'd say your CR is horrible.
If you hope to fold him now on the turn, needs to work 50%+.
If on the river, more complicated given that we need to average accross all the rivers we will fire + bet size. You can't fire h or s, or ace or king. No way this is +EV.
25nl turn Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, <img .25 BB (6 handed) - [url=http://poker-tools.flovs reg Quote
05-04-2011 , 07:08 PM
no, I dont think he ever folds to a turn raise.

I dont think he folds Qx here at any point btw.

I just thought that his turn 2barell betting range can contain as much as:
(JJ-88,AJs-ATs,KJs,Q9s,J8s+,T8s+,64s+,54s,AJo-ATo,KJo,JTo ~9%)
hands that call a turn raise and fold to a river shove on every 9-

And i felt this far exceeds any pessimistic nut range he may have (QQ+,TT,44-33,AQs,KQs ~3%) however i am not a math person and dont know how to put this all together so would appreciate the feedback

Last edited by filth; 05-04-2011 at 07:16 PM.
25nl turn Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, <img .25 BB (6 handed) - [url=http://poker-tools.flovs reg Quote
05-04-2011 , 07:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by filth
no, I dont think he ever folds to a turn raise.
surely this is suicide and huge spew?
As your only planning on shoving a brick, Wow theres a lot of river which you classed as which are 'not bricks' due to him calling KQ+ and all FD, SD etc (what you think he is going to call to) And thats not even counting the amount you lose when he shoves over your raise. (sorry if discuusedd, sort of read only first and last post lol)
25nl turn Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, <img .25 BB (6 handed) - [url=http://poker-tools.flovs reg Quote
05-04-2011 , 07:53 PM
It is not a matter of being a math person, it is a matter of tracking some critical stats and binning them into several broad categories and acting accoridingly. 40% turn cbet is conservative/solid. Not someone who will have a mere draw very often after firing flop and getting called.
25nl turn Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, <img .25 BB (6 handed) - [url=http://poker-tools.flovs reg Quote
05-04-2011 , 08:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MicroGrinder84
It is not a matter of being a math person, it is a matter of tracking some critical stats and binning them into several broad categories and acting accoridingly. 40% turn cbet is conservative/solid. Not someone who will have a mere draw very often after firing flop and getting called.
+1, all your turn raise accomplished would be folding T hands, But these hands might not even be in his turn barrelling range
25nl turn Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, <img .25 BB (6 handed) - [url=http://poker-tools.flovs reg Quote

      
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