Villian is 19/13/4.4 over 400 hands. Calls open in SB = 18%. Turn aggression = 7.5


Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (UTG): $32.59 (130.4 bb)
MP: $35.83 (143.3 bb)
CO: $25.32 (101.3 bb)
BTN: $31.56 (126.2 bb)
SB: $35.78 (143.1 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K Q
Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, SB calls $0.75, BB folds

Flop: ($1.95) K T Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.95) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ???

Do I need to bet here to protect my hand or is it best to check behind?

You must bet to get value, protecting your hand is a bonus...

Umm, what?

Bet for value.

You need to bet your hand for value.

OK - yea I guess I didn't really clarify in OP but I was planning on posting actual turn action so I didn't want to give anything away... I bet ott and in my head I said 'you need to get value from draws'.



Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (UTG): $32.59 (130.4 bb)
MP: $35.83 (143.3 bb)
CO: $25.32 (101.3 bb)
BTN: $31.56 (126.2 bb)
SB: $35.78 (143.1 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K Q
Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, SB calls $0.75, BB folds

Flop: ($1.95) K T Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.95) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.50, SB raises to $10.50, Hero ???

But now wtf do I do?!? Is this a shove/fold spot? We still have ~100bb behind at this point. I can't flat this X/R can I? BTW - Vil X/R ott = 2 of 4.

bet for value

EDIT: after his raise it's probably a fold unless you have specific reads not to believe him

fold

Turn aggression 7.5 makes this more interesting, is he the type to float and try to take it away on the turn? After 400 hands you have to have more of a read then just bare stats.

If you don't, you're doing it wrong.

His turn c/r stat would be interesting to know.

Also important to know how villain views you. Do you cbet too much etc etc

Thank you for saying the first part, seriously.

X/R stat should've been(?) posted in my 2nd post I thought... Anyway X/R = 2 of 4 possible.

Egads, let me rethink this

I thought you were on the btn for some reason.

Kinda stumped. I want to shove but we obv get snapped by 1010, AJ and fold all his bluffs. If we call and check to him on the river he can check back all the worse 2p hands he thought he was value raising or if he shoves them we're still left guessing for our stack.

Do you have his river aggression and W$SD stats?

Vil is in SB
Hero is UTG

River aggression = inf
W$SD = 63%

Alright so that tells us if you flat call he's shoving pretty much all rivers with his bluffs and his made hands imo.

I'm still stumped but I think I'm call/call any non vomit inducing river vs this villain. I wish we had some reads from his previous showdowns though so I'm not loving it and his W$SD makes me nervous too.

This hand bugs the hell out of me and I'm super curious though.

Anyone else want to chime in who doesn't just auto fold to turn raises?

gross flop... when in doubt, shove! LOL

if you don't want to fold against the turn raise, I'd just call the raise and call almost all rivers.

I don't auto fold to turn raises don't think calling is terrible. It's $7 into $19. So you're getting 36% on a call. Your hands equity is around 45+/-% (Haven't stoved, but this seems about right), So you do have enough equity in your hand to just call here. I assign your equity against his most likely value hands and draws he's semi-bluffing with. I guess the only thing to consider is % of times Villain bets a brick river for the times he is semi-bluffing, and how much? Based on his Turn bet, he's probably going to half pot the riv a large % of the time whether he's bluffing or leading. So if you call OTT, you have to consider the additional amount to be calling unimproved on the Riv. If he half pots, it's $13/39, which is 33%. I think your hand is probably good at least this amount of the time on the riv, but it's very marginal, so folding OTT now is surely ok. But calling isn't completely terrible either, just higher variance.
EDIT - Obv if he shoves the riv you fold.

It´s a really really weird flop to slowplay, a gazillion turn cards kill your action and it isn´t really a board that hero will barrel with air a lot and hero will have plenty of hands like pair + sd that will check behind turn. I´m a non-believer, so the question is how to win the most when ahead, have you seen him bluff the river big before? Otherwise I think I´d just shove it in.

this whole thoughtprocess seems screwed

I agree - folding top two to the first sign of aggression from a competent player is very nitty.

The only problem with your logic is that he's probably going to shove 90% of rivers.

Calling here and folding unimproved to a river bet is spewy here.

Don't think what you have. Think what he has.

This is golden advice.

I mean, are you afraid that you'll get check-raised? Doesn't happen too often, and happens even less often as a bluff.

LoL. First time I've been flamed, awesome! Instead of just saying "this thought process is screwed" Why don't you elaborate why and add to the discussion instead of just flaming. Why is this thought process screwed ffs?

1) I assign my opponent a range of likely made hands and draws he is betting with.
Refer:

Quote:

Originally Posted by lumileijona

Don't think what you have. Think what he has.

2) I then compare my hands equity against that range (circa 45% against pot odds of 2.7/1)

3) I can now proceed in the hand and make a decision that is most +EV based on this information considered. (opponents tendencies also to to be considered).

What's screwed about that?!?!?!

Further, I was just trying to point out in response to Doboyfusion's post earlier that instead of auto-folding / auto shoving, that a call could be made considering his likely holdings & your hands relative strength. aka "Adding to the discussion"

Yeah it is, I totally agree. I didn't word that well (incomplete). I guess i was just trying to point out that if he does shove, your pot odds change and your hands equity changes with this in mind..... It's just something to consider depending on what the Riv card is. I mean, if he shoves or half pots it on a River A,J,or9, well your hands equity changes dramatically and facing a shove I'd probably find a fold considering what he's most likely betting with. But just about any other card, I'd call it down because your equity hasn't changed much really. I haven't stoved, but I hope you see my point. I'm not advocating a fold here all the time. Sorry if it sounded that way.

+1, which is the basis of my thought process always and what I was trying emphasize in my original post. What does my opponent have? What is my hands equity against that with the board considered?.... Can I bet for value? Is there more value in calling? folding? etc etc

Villains line makes like zero sense unless he holds exactly AhJh, any other legitimate hand that beats us should have c/r flop and barrel big on the turn for value and protection.

I probably call/call or shove this as SOOOOO many guys at 25nl will spew ultra hard w/ draws regardless of the flop, the action, and their opponent. And for the reason above.

I really dont see a fold here vs this villain ever.

trying to find a hand worse than ours he raises for value or a hand that he is semibluffing with that we are ahead of that he doesn't semibluff otf. any ideas? how is this not TT, J9, AJ?

Because I think all three of those would/should raise flop. I guess it depends on how good/bad you think villain is. A good player is going to raise all three of those on the flop due to the texture of the board, because if you can continue you have a hand that will likely stack off, and because so many scare cards can hit turn that kill your action.

But if villain is crappy, then none of that applies.