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25NL TPTK on 4 straight board against loose passive 25NL TPTK on 4 straight board against loose passive

05-25-2008 , 05:12 PM
Villain was 65/6/1.68 over 150 hands. One hand he called with MP on the flop, called turn, got 2 pair (top and middle pair) on the river and just called. He would limp most hands and only once did he limp raise. Would call cbets with gut shots. Also aggression factor is probably actually a little lower as he would commonly min bet, which I don't really count as aggression.

I was playing 23/18/3 (thats on 4 tables dunno what I was running on this one). I would raise this guys limps constantly but I didn't try to bluff him that often because he calls so much. I don't think I got that out of line against him but I did flop more than my fair share of big hands against him.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

UTG: $27.10
MP: $50.65
CO: $96.60
Hero (BTN): $79.50
SB: $50.00
BB: $68.45

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with T A
2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.10, 1 fold, BB calls $0.85, CO calls $0.85

Flop: ($3.40) 8 T 9 (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB folds, CO calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.40) 6 (2 players)
CO bets $8.40, Hero ???

I don't really seeing him showing up here without two pair or better very often. He played so many hands the same way PF and on the flop but first time he had done this. I think that I'm drawing to 9 outs or fewer here most of the time.
25NL TPTK on 4 straight board against loose passive Quote
05-25-2008 , 07:35 PM
It seems as though you've answered your own question. I'd expect to see a straight quite often, so I would regard the Aces and Tens as very tainted outs and you will not be comfortable raising them. So it comes down to the flush draw, which your opponent has effectively priced you out from drawing. Fold.
25NL TPTK on 4 straight board against loose passive Quote
05-25-2008 , 07:48 PM
you are 21.5% assuming you just have flush outs and a 7 for a split (which may not be the case obv)

78.5% of the time you lose 8.40

21.5% of the time you win 8.40 plus w/e value you can get on the river

EV is .785(-8.4)+.215(x+8.4) when you win x on the river when you hit.

The breakeven point is x=22.27. Against this player, I think this is attainable so I don't mind calling here against a fish who will call a PSB (25.2) almost everytime on the river and will often b/c the river for stacks.
25NL TPTK on 4 straight board against loose passive Quote

      
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