Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

UTG: $35.20
UTG+1: $9.25
UTG+2: $18.70
MP1: $25.00
Hero (MP2): $25.00
CO: $35.95
BTN: $9.40
SB: $22.85
BB: $25.00

Pre Flop: Hero is MP2 with K J
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.10, 2 folds, SB calls $1, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $0.85

Flop: ($3.55) 5 4 K (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 bets $2, Hero calls $2, SB folds

Turn: ($7.55) T (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50

River: ($18.55) 9 (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50


V: 47/5/2.2 over 60 hands

Comments on every street please..
Many thanks in advance.

if your not gonna be agressive when you flop TP the just fold pre. If I took your line pre then I would rr to 6 on flop since AK is a big part of your range your repping then he won't play back without a hand that can beat that, so you can muck it if he shoves and if he calls then you have position and can check behind on turn and re-evaluate river.

let ure hand go on the turn. its very unusual that someones betting into the preflop raiser and a caller an then also 2-barreling with nothing. i wouldnt raise the flop because im going to fold my hand on the turn anyway most of the time.

ooh i didnt see villian stats...ok a fold on the turn might seem a little bit weakish given villians stats

Could UTG 2 limp AK or KQ to have you outkicked? Probably not...

Could he have limped pocket 4's or 5's, then called your raise? Y

I think this is a genuinely tough spot. Villain has an AF of 2.2 with a VPIP of 47, which I believe puts him squarely in maniac territory. (I'm not 100% on this, but AF scales with VPIP iirc).

Pre-flop looks fine imo, except you are raising this guy and he's probably been at the center of all the recent action on the table. So, he'd be a good person to study and to already have a general idea of the degree to which he's crazy.

Flop is a good one to c-bet, as we can represent AK, which villains like to put us on. Normally, connecting with the king would almost be incidental here.

Now, we get a somewhat strong donk lead (strong in the sense of bet size). I'd generally put him on 67, 23, kx, a5, a4, 66-qq. I think with his stats, we'd need to include some air in there like a6-at, and also QJ b/c that's what I'm guessing he had. :> I think stronger hands like two-pair, sets, and aces are typically going to take a more normal extraction line even from this guy. I could be wrong obv.

So, I think if we really think we're ahead of his range, I don't really mind the check/call line, as this guy is crazy enough to get it all in bad. It's not a fun line, as you experienced.

The problem is that we really have to decide right then and there on the flop. (Obv easy to say this in retrospect, but we should probably plan on him keeping on firing depending on his other stats).

Do we really want to invest our stack with KJ here? He's going to have be awfully crazy to make that +ev I think. If we don't want to felt it, then we either fold to the donk lead (perfectly fine imo), or we reraise him and then give up to further action. We'd have to estimate the range with which he calls the reraise, which could include Kx if he's bad enough.

There might be a third option to get out of the hand without a showdown, which would be to fight fire with fire. Something like shoving all-in over the turn. This would be pretty high-variance obv. :>

Basically if I hadn't been watching him and preparing myself for some ninja moves, I'm thinking fold to the flop donk, or if I call flop w/o a plan, fold the turn. Pretend you had QQ that hand. :>

Some good advice

ugh, against this villian, the passive line looks good (I can't believe I typed that). Sometimes I attack the donkbet, but against this villian if he shoves, I am in a tough decision.

nh.

This line is actually ok vs certain villains. Like Sammy said, you can't really stand a lot of heat here but on the other hand you simply have too much SD value esp vs a player like that.

You might actually get more value using that line than with raising the flop...

A donk bet is almost always TP or better. He also only bet about 60% of the pot on the flop. He isn't looking to chase anyone out. There are no realistic draws on the board. He sped up his betting on the turn and slowed down on the river where he could be afraid of a very loose QJ playing.

Just what King does anyone think Hero beats by the river? Is it realistic he's firing 3 barrels with K6-K8, K2-K3 or with air?

I think this line is spew. Raise the flop. AK is definitely in your range and a loose aggressive player is going to back down against strength. Otherwise fold.

meh, been playing 25nl for a bit lately and I disagree.
well, if it really is, then a LOT of people fold TP to my RR's.

even so, this is KT/9 as often as it's K3/K6
guy plays way too much/too hard, and has the stack to show for it.

*grunch*
Let him bet the dry board, RR the sloppier ones (e.g. 5s4sKd)
IMO we aren't trying to make it clear that we have TP here.
We could have JJ and not believe him etc..

Usually the bigger the donkbet, the stronger the hand. Usually I find that 2/3-3/4 pot donkbets are sets or two pair looking to get it in.

QFT, I attack donkbets all the time from the right villians, and its a good money maker.

s/n: Senasly
Notes: Limped-called PSPFR with T4s and donks w' bottom pair on a 5c 4d Ks board.

Just hope he runin to one of you guys..

to answer the thread title, you should fold to the river bet IMO. unless facing an aggro-donk you're not beating anything reasonable at this point.

of course you might want to play this a little more aggressive though. a flop raise is possible in this case. on turn the pot is too big to raise, so it gotta be on the flop.

EDIT: No wait. That river bet is very small. Considering his stats I think you have to call this, as played that is.
However, I think it's extra important that you try to get some information from this kind of opponent. Put him to the test. A flop raise seems very very reasonable. It is indeed a very though hand though.

haha w00t! nh. :>