Villain is 15/14/5 over 188 hands (all on this table) and down ~9$ in this sample. ATS is 34% Fold to 3b 86%.

I run 20/15/4 over 218 hands in this table with ATS at 34% and fold to3b 57% so we were both pretty active and me more than him, I'm down 15$ on this table so he might see me as a spewtard lol



What range do we assign here on flop/turn/river?

how is my line so far and what should be my line on the river?

OTR I dont put him on too much since I assume sets and 2pr+ would've shoved be4 the river. this looks alot like AK/AQ. Given this assumed range (is it correct in your opinion 2+2?) can I shove river?

I would check fold river. no way AK or AQ is folding given your description of dynamics.

Nobody folds an ace here ever

check the turn. Not enough value against a nit and he is never folding better.

ch/c turn ch/f river UI
I'd probably bet smallish on most rivers if the turn checks through but I'm not really sure it's right.

This is the perfect hand to check/call the turn with. Looks like you're giving up but you have a ton of "scarecards" covered.

There's almost 0 chance that he knows or cares how much you're up or down at this specific table.

Against a nit I'm turning this into a bluff.

C/r smallish on the flop. Lead turn for 1/2 pot or a little less. Shove river for about pot size.

The only hands that u don't beat that a nit would normally flat pre with are AA JJ or KQs. If he has AA or JJ he is almost always raising to get it all in on the flop or turn.

The only thing I can see him calling a pot suze river shove with is KQs. A nit will most certainly normally fold AK or AQ to that river bet (unless there is some sort of dynamic going on where he's seen u bluff a lot)

Smartacus I agree about AA/KK but why you dont include AK/AQ in his range?

especially if he views me as a spewtard

everyone else : why ch/c turn is better then firing the 2nd barrel? exactly because he didn't raise flop I wouldn't put this type of player on a huge hand and I can fold some of his weaker aces if he felt brave vs me + I pick up a ton of outs OTT.

he might seem as a nit (15/14) but I 3bet him ALOT be4 and after seeing me lose a big pot he might feel brave, this is 25nl after all , land of the overadjusters no?

I did check/fold river but what surprised me is that he tanked for a bit and then SHOVED and I was trying to think what would he shove there really that flats my 2 barrels? AK? obv. he wasn't bluffing... I dunno this whole hand puzzled me lol

c/call n c/f turn... if he checks turn gay bet the river n cross fingers he cant fold jx or qq-kk

u 3bet bluffed i assume vs this nit?... hence i dont love cbetting the flop for value neither do i think this is some wet board your getting much value from him.. he has u beat or not but either way he bets the flop close to 100% of the time so i c/call here n expect him to not double barrel 2nd pairs or even marginal Ax's ott

It was a 3b bluff and one of several that preceeded it, thing is once the flop comes I hate c/c cause all of his betting range pretty much crushes me while when betting I may not get alot of value from worse hands (maybe the occasional qq/kk) but I do get some folds (pocket pairs maybe?) and I did bet slightly over half pot so I needed it to work only 33%.

The thing is that on that board I expect him to raise with most of his value range and once he flats it looks weakish to me coming from a very direct abc tag so I bet again now to fold maybe the occasional A10s along with maybe some other pair that looked me up or a KQs and I am not afraid of a raise since he it didn't came on the flop I know he either flats or folds and I pick up a ton of outs incase he's just flatting me all the way with JJ or sumthin (which is btw in retrospect seems like the most logical hand he might have here to me).

If turn goes check check I usually dont bet river because I think this kinda player will check back his kk/qq and will call with any ace

No AK and AQ is definitely in his range. What I meant was that he's not calling on the river with those hands if played as I described. A fish, yes. Most nits, no.

i think the only hands in his calling range pre that checks back flop is 99-1010 & even those might bet for protection on what he might perceive as a wet board.... once u check flop here it will look weak n like your going to c/f so hence why i c/call n assume he plays str8 forward ott while maximizing value vs his 2nd pairs considering c/call to check through turn to half pot river or whatever= him thinking u missed a draw or has jx n calls qq-kk or 99-1010 ... i think once he bets flop n then turn your beat close to always but so much value otf to c/call imo that u lose when u bet

You are trying to fold out a very small part of his range. If you bet turn/bet river he'll maybe fold AQ, very rarely AK and the very few Axs he called with preflop. Maybe it's marginally profitable, maybe not.

Checking however definitely picks up a bet from all his random floats as well as a decent amount of one pair hands that either bet the turn or call a small bet on the river.

smartacus I see what you're saying, I really have to think about that line since c/r smallish oop in 3b pots is something im not yet used to

Exothermic - very interesting points, I dont think 99-1010 continue much here on his behalf and he didn't seem the kind of villain that will put money with those hands on that board ( I can be wrong obv). I thought that kk-qq will be there either way so I might as wekk bet and if he flats to barrel alot of cards in case he has weaker aces here (although come to think of it I dont think he can have here any non paint ace other than A10s and even that's a stretch). but KQs is still there and I didn't want him to check back , the flush hit and then c/f.

I am thinking alot about what u said about c/c flop for value, I guess if villain is straight forward I can do it without fearing he would bluff me off which is pretty much the case.

I agree but what is a tag flatting on such a wet board flop + turn if not AK/AQ/KQs? I narrow his range because I expect him to raise all of his sets/2pr+ before the river. maybe I'm wrong but he didn't seem like the villain to play AA/JJ this way.

Let me restate what I meant in a different way.

I don't think u ever win that hand without turning it into a bluff unless he has KK or QQ and just decided to get sticky (the way u played it).

If u c/r flop he will let u know if he has JJ or AA 90% if the time be cause would have to put you ion a set, big combo draw or a big ace or air.

So raise by him would probably be big to get more value from any perceived draw u might have

he is never folding AK, and very often he is never folding an A regardless of how you play. Nits fold lots pre but trying to bluff them off top pair in 3b pots is burning money

^^ exactly.... c/raising to get them off aj(2pair).. AQ(tpgk)... ak(tptk) is not goign to happen.. a-10 folds pre like 90% of the time unless hes tilting or has low fold to 3bet stat

c/call all day everyday otf

Dennis,

Ur right that the flop c/r is not folding AK AQ. Which is y u bet smaller on turn and shove river. So u have to be capable of 3 streets here or else take ur lumps for 3betting A3 oop and either b/f or c/f.

I disagree that a nit does not fold TPTK to a big river shove on this board. That's not a nit, that's a ******ed station

Exothermic,

So...ur c/c 3 streets here? Wow.

smarthacus you gave me alot to think about because once the flop hit I cbet that A pretty automatically and once the turn hit and he only flats on a 2club board I'm suddenly thinking "ok I pick up equity , I know im bluffing but maybe there's value here too or an occasional fold if he didn't raise his strong hands otf" but I pretty much forgot that I was bluffing all the way and u reminded me that so I should've picked a scarier line (like the one you suggested).

I do think he can fold AQ here once in a while even given my line cause it really beats only a bluff but when I checked river and he shoved I had to question my assumption that he was on a AK/AQ flatting flop and turn cause I dont think he'd shove those to a check (at least not AQ).

what about turn play? once he flats flop is it really better to c/c rather then bet? what If I c/c and hit flush/str8 or 2pr otr do I psb shove?

the key stat is his very high fold to 3bet.

we cant be too happy with TP since we are folding out all weaker aces once with 3bet with A3.

cbet Flop is ok, but proceed with caution if he calls.

as played I would fold River.

turning your hand into a bluff by shoving River to rep a flush and get him to fold Ax might be an option too, but people have such a hard time folding TP I dont know if thats profitable or not.

Someone do the math for me.

since it's a backdoor flush I dont think I can rep it very well here, his stats are important yes but that's why I also mentioned I was 3betting him alot and taking it down so he might (maybeee) call slighly lighter here pre than his stats

Is the 3-bet pre good in this situation? You end up taking down a small pot alot and losing a big pot when he calls with his strong range a decent amount. Specifically with Axs you are dominated by a good part of his range. Would scs be a better 3-bet bluff?

his ATS is high and his fold to 3b is high which makes ATC profitable here untill he adjusts.

Also the A blocks alot of his value/continuation range

smartacus can u read?... i said c/call flop n fold turn n gay bet to half pot river to get 2nd pairs to call n thus maximize your value vs those hands... when you bet flop to flop turn your getting those hands to fold n hence lose value so its a -ev play imo comparing it to c/call vs someone who plays as str8 forward as a nit does


when u lead flop n lets say u checked turn... why in the fricking world is villain bettign 2nd pairs on a dry board imo but even if you have a flush draw your equity is so low n u still have hands u c/shove with n u still have weak Ax that calls so barreling those hands in villain shoes is just so lol bad...