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25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? 25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise?

07-07-2008 , 05:43 PM
Villian's 15/11/2 over 155, I have noticed him on a couple different tables and haven't seen him do anything out of line, he seems tight and straightforward; no specific reads..

I seem to get myself consistently in trouble with river raises...so my question here is, am I ever getting called by worse on this river? I didn't raise the flop because I didn't want to blow him off, and I had seen him donkbet (and fire turn and river) on a monotone flop vs a station earlier, so I'm assuming he is doing it with a hand. On top of that he probably has a read on me at this point and realizes that I'm not calling without a hand, which makes me question my river raise even more.

So, is this just a call? Is raising this unneccessary spew considering his calling range from the blinds (given my stats on him are somewhat accurate) consists of almost only hands that are beating me)?

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $30.30
BB: $35.75
UTG: $25.55
Hero (CO): $60.25
BTN: $107.95

Pre Flop: Hero is CO with K A
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, SB calls $0.90, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.25) T A 5 (2 players)
SB bets $1.60, Hero calls $1.60

Turn: ($5.45) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $3.40, Hero calls $3.40

River: ($12.25) K (2 players)
SB bets $7.60, Hero raises to $54.25 all in, SB calls $16.70 all in
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 05:47 PM
I'm concerned if a tight player leads into me 3 streets. He's unlikey to do this with a straight draw... I assume he's bright enough to put an ace in your range. The best you're hoping for here is a weaker 2 pair?

call me weak but I probably just call river simply because of the tightness of the player.
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 05:49 PM
I think a turn raise would be good here because the turn brings a lot of draws, and he's probably going to call you with worse aces. However, I'm not sure how I would handle him 3betting the turn.
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 06:07 PM
I don’t mind your passive line. I’m just calling that river bet tho. AT is the only worse hand which I can see paying us off.
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 06:08 PM
I agree with PKS Ace

I will shove here because there are many hands in his range, what you have beat.
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 06:15 PM
are there though? He's 15/11, he probably knows I'm solid, he's calling out of the blinds, and I really think there's only one hand in his range that I'm beating, a10, which is obviously somewhat unlikely. I think against certain players a turn shove is a good play, but against him...I just think he's too straightforward of a player for that to be a +EV play
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 06:28 PM
I think villains range is polarized to either AT or sets, maybe AJ, AQ but villain’s not paying off the shove with those.
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 09:03 PM
IDK about raising the turn since villain will fold most of his one pair hands, which we beat, and doesn't have a lot of draws in his range. Definitely just call the river bet.
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 09:19 PM
Played this way you should only call his riverbet, it is kind of a WA/WB-situation, and i def dont like your shove. That goes for your line as well, this way you hang urself waaaaay to much, rr the flop any day imo.
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 10:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by galaq
Played this way you should only call his riverbet, it is kind of a WA/WB-situation, and i def dont like your shove. That goes for your line as well, this way you hang urself waaaaay to much, rr the flop any day imo.
The river is always a WA/WB situation. The reason you would tend to call in a WA/WB situation on previous streets is because you don't have to worry as much about people drawing out on you, and you're only getting worse to fold because the bottom of villain's range is scared of the threat of future bets.

I'm not saying that the push or any of the previous streets are necessarily right or good. I'm undecided AORN. However, WA/WB is not a reason to call.

Now, as no one has yet come up with any hand ranges, etc for villain...

First, we need a list of hands a multi-tabling 15/11 will call an open with in the SB, but not 3bet. Since we don't know much about this villain, we're going to have to go out on a lot of limbs here. So, if anyone else thinks differently about villain's range, redo the next few steps and explain why you think I'm wrong.

First of all, I'm going to assume villain isn't an idiot and that he plays fairly straightforwardly. This range isn't supposed to accurately depict any particular villian, it's supposed to sort of average together random TAGfish villains that you meet at the tables who know some basics about poker.

So, we can rule out QQ+, we'll assume 3/4 of villains will 3bet AK and 1/4 will flat-call, 3/4 w/ATs, AJs, and AQ, always flat w/KQ, 1/2 the time w/JQs, 1/2 the time w/22-77, 3/4 of the time w/88-JJ, 1/3 of the time w/KJs, and 1/3 of the time w/TJs.

We'll forget about any other hands because by the time the river comes, they're largely irrelevant.

So, now we have the following hands in the range with the respective weightings we gave them:

.25 AK
.75 ATs,AJs, AQ
1 KQ
.5 JQs
.5 22-77
.75 88-JJ
.33 KJs
.33 TJs

For the record, when we discount some of his bluffier hands that he might donk out with, we don't need to consider the possibility of him bluffing as we're only concerned with what hands will eventually call a river shove.

On the flop and turn (As Td 5h 9h), Mec said his read was that he was doing this with a hand of some sort. So, we can discount 22-44, 66-99, JQs by 1/2, KQ by 1/2, KJs by 1/2, TJs by 1/2, and JJ by 1/2.

Now we have:

.25 AK
.75 ATs, AJs, AQ
.5 KQ
.25 JQs
.5 55
.75 TT
.375 JJ
.17 KJs, TJs

Now we have a range of hands that has made it to the river.

On the river, the only hands that are going to bet/call allin out of this range are probably:

JQs (25%), AK (25%), TT (75%), 55 (50%), ATs (75%), and AQ half the time so, (37.5%)

There's also some percentage of random junk that we beat, but we'll get to that later.

If you input this weighted range into holdem manager, you get an equity of:

Wins Ties Equity
43.90% 4.88% 48.78% ( AdKd )
46.34% 4.88% 51.22% ( JQs(25), AK(25), TT(75), 55(50), ATs(75), AQ(37.5) )

FWIW, if you don't weight the ranges at all, you get 50.00% equity against his range. So, in retrospect, weighting according to previous action didn't really affect this example too much.

So, if you think this range is somewhat accurate, and you think that occasionally villian will spaz out and call with a hand that you crush, shoving becomes correct.

As an aside, fold equity is not a concern here as 1.)we're assuming you cause no hand that beats you to fold, and 2.)you don't have any streets to draw out on the hands you do beat.

However, if you raise the turn, I think it allows you to fold to a 3bet pretty easily, and you get more equity from the hands you do beat while you're committing them to call that river shove. However, as played, it's probably a really close decision between calling and shoving, but I'm one to shove anytime it's a close decision anyways. So, I'd shove away.
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 10:58 PM
Given his stats, I don't like the raise much. FWIW, when you post a hand like this, you should edit out his river call. It taints the responses when people *know* that he's going to call your raise.

The only worse hand that calls here is AT, and that doesn't seem likely for a nit to defend in the SB. I think a huge % of his range is 55 and you just got owned.

Flop and turn are perfect. Just call the river.

If your opponent is some 55/17 donkey, I like the river push a whole lot more.
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 11:07 PM
As played, just call the river. It's VERY apparent that you have a hand like AJ here, so the fact that he leads 3 streets really makes me think his range is more set based than 2pr.

Raise this flop every every every time please. Obv fold to a 3-bet.

River is closer to a fold than a raise, IMO.
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 11:16 PM
Quote:
Raise this flop every every every time please. Obv fold to a 3-bet.
wat? no.

Only against super idiots that will pay you off with absolutely anything would you want to raise the flop here.

It's not particularly drawy, so you're in a WA/WB situation. Which means, a raise will only serve to fold his weaker hands, and get you owned harder by his stronger hands.
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 11:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SomethingClever
wat? no.

Only against super idiots that will pay you off with absolutely anything would you want to raise the flop here.

It's not particularly drawy, so you're in a WA/WB situation. Which means, a raise will only serve to fold his weaker hands, and get you owned harder by his stronger hands.
he's exactly right about this. so what, he had a set this time, but it's not like i had a read on the guy yet, and although part of me wants, of course, to raise that flop, he very well could be potting with air. doesn't matter that he's 15/11
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 11:37 PM
Quote:
he's exactly right about this. so what, he had a set this time, but it's not like i had a read on the guy yet, and although part of me wants, of course, to raise that flop, he very well could be potting with air. doesn't matter that he's 15/11
change "air" to "AQ" and I support your statement!

Just giving you a hard time. He almost never has air, but he will often have a second best Ax hand.
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-07-2008 , 11:41 PM
I would snap-call the river but wouldn't raise, especially with your read that his barrels are often solid. I would put him on med pps and weak broadways to flat from the SB.

Looks like he had QJ for a pester-bet gutterball turned oesd that coolered you.
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote
07-12-2008 , 06:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SomethingClever
change "air" to "AQ" and I support your statement!

Just giving you a hard time. He almost never has air, but he will often have a second best Ax hand.
yeah, basically what I meant, just meant in worse-hand-case scenario...anyways yeah. thx
25nl - Top 2 on river; bad time to raise? Quote

      
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