Quote:
Originally Posted by galaq
Played this way you should only call his riverbet, it is kind of a WA/WB-situation, and i def dont like your shove. That goes for your line as well, this way you hang urself waaaaay to much, rr the flop any day imo.
The river is always a WA/WB situation. The reason you would tend to call in a WA/WB situation on previous streets is because you don't have to worry as much about people drawing out on you, and you're only getting worse to fold because the bottom of villain's range is scared of the threat of future bets.
I'm not saying that the push or any of the previous streets are necessarily right or good. I'm undecided AORN. However, WA/WB is not a reason to call.
Now, as no one has yet come up with any hand ranges, etc for villain...
First, we need a list of hands a multi-tabling 15/11 will call an open with in the SB, but not 3bet. Since we don't know much about this villain, we're going to have to go out on a lot of limbs here. So, if anyone else thinks differently about villain's range, redo the next few steps and explain why you think I'm wrong.
First of all, I'm going to assume villain isn't an idiot and that he plays fairly straightforwardly. This range isn't supposed to accurately depict any particular villian, it's supposed to sort of average together random TAGfish villains that you meet at the tables who know some basics about poker.
So, we can rule out QQ+, we'll assume 3/4 of villains will 3bet AK and 1/4 will flat-call, 3/4 w/ATs, AJs, and AQ, always flat w/KQ, 1/2 the time w/JQs, 1/2 the time w/22-77, 3/4 of the time w/88-JJ, 1/3 of the time w/KJs, and 1/3 of the time w/TJs.
We'll forget about any other hands because by the time the river comes, they're largely irrelevant.
So, now we have the following hands in the range with the respective weightings we gave them:
.25 AK
.75 ATs,AJs, AQ
1 KQ
.5 JQs
.5 22-77
.75 88-JJ
.33 KJs
.33 TJs
For the record, when we discount some of his bluffier hands that he might donk out with, we don't need to consider the possibility of him bluffing as we're only concerned with what hands will eventually call a river shove.
On the flop and turn (As Td 5h 9h), Mec said his read was that he was doing this with a hand of some sort. So, we can discount 22-44, 66-99, JQs by 1/2, KQ by 1/2, KJs by 1/2, TJs by 1/2, and JJ by 1/2.
Now we have:
.25 AK
.75 ATs, AJs, AQ
.5 KQ
.25 JQs
.5 55
.75 TT
.375 JJ
.17 KJs, TJs
Now we have a range of hands that has made it to the river.
On the river, the only hands that are going to bet/call allin out of this range are probably:
JQs (25%), AK (25%), TT (75%), 55 (50%), ATs (75%), and AQ half the time so, (37.5%)
There's also some percentage of random junk that we beat, but we'll get to that later.
If you input this weighted range into holdem manager, you get an equity of:
Wins Ties Equity
43.90% 4.88% 48.78% ( AdKd )
46.34% 4.88% 51.22% ( JQs(25), AK(25), TT(75), 55(50), ATs(75), AQ(37.5) )
FWIW, if you don't weight the ranges at all, you get 50.00% equity against his range. So, in retrospect, weighting according to previous action didn't really affect this example too much.
So, if you think this range is somewhat accurate, and you think that occasionally villian will spaz out and call with a hand that you crush, shoving becomes correct.
As an aside, fold equity is not a concern here as 1.)we're assuming you cause no hand that beats you to fold, and 2.)you don't have any streets to draw out on the hands you do beat.
However, if you raise the turn, I think it allows you to fold to a 3bet pretty easily, and you get more equity from the hands you do beat while you're committing them to call that river shove. However, as played, it's probably a really close decision between calling and shoving, but I'm one to shove anytime it's a close decision anyways. So, I'd shove away.