My previous thread got locked (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69...eaking-998966/), sorry about that - wasn't aware the rules had changed. But I'm still very eager for some feedback as this has been probably my 5th or 6th attempt to move up and this scenario seems to repeat itself.

Here is a hand from the original thread that encompasses my main issues as I fear that I may be taking lines in which I'm forcing villains to only table hands that beat me.




For example is a 4 bet here forcing villain to enter lines where he'll only table AA?

A competent player facing another competent player is never flatting the 4 bet with AK or QQ or worse and they are also never 5 betting anything other than AA or KK so I guess my line only gets to its conclusion if he has only AA or KK.

No way - there's literally only one possible hand that beats you. Shovel money into the pot like a boss.

I have called in this spot many times to see the bullets have shot down my buy in. But I have also called and seen 88 ak, 44, and suited connectors (and had those connectors beat me!) It feels like I am always beat with aa but I think that would probably be untrue. I think against a player with a vpip of 12 or less this may be a poor line but against everyone else in the world I don't think there is anything wrong with getting in as much as possible preflop with kk.

This may be true, but I think 4 betting here makes it so that villain can only continue if he has the hand that beats me.

I mean if you put yourself in villains shoes and you 3 bet a competent players UTG raise (and you have no wild history vs each other or anything crazy) and you get 4 bet, what hands do you really expect him to have?

From villains POV:
A competent player isnt 4 betting AK, QQ or worse in this spot ever.

From Heros POV:
If I 4 bet what hands can villain continue with? AA and KK only. As it is total spew for him to do anything else with any hand.


I guess I answered my own question bleh.

I thought this as well for a long time, however looking over my holdem manager I see that in situations similar to this vs similar nitty regs that are the majority on pokerstars that the 5% of times this is spew, doesn't make up for the other 95% of times where villain is only tabling aces.

Should note that none of these ideas apply to agroregs, donks, or what-have-you. But for the 16/13/5 guys that are the majority on 25NL 6 max it fully applies.

Flat 3bet for value from squeezes. It's not because it's unprofitable to shove, it's because it's more profitable to flat. This is only against agressive opponents who are capable of squeezing light vs. an utg open. Otherwise, just get it in.

AA vs. KK is a part of the game. ****YOU ARE NOT LOSING ANY MONEY WHEN KINGS GO IN VS ACES****. The only way you would be losing money is if other players were good enough to lay down kings when you have aces. And if you are so passive that they are able to justify ever laying down kings pre, then you have bigger leaks to worry about.

Thats my point. This is a spot where everyone will go broke and cry 'cooler' when in reality I don't think that is the case. It's not 2004 anymore. You have to continue to increase your edges.

I think that the ONLY play here vs this type of villain (wether he is squeeze happy or not) is a flat. If you are villain and you're continuing vs this type of UTG 4 bet with anything other than AA/KK (without some significant history) you're spewing hard core and giving up a LOT of money to other players at your stakes.

stop being results oriented. You knew he could have AA as well as QQ,JJ,TT,AK or you would not have done this.

There has to be hands where you are messing up pre flop and post flop,,, not value betting or calling to light than this "cooler"

yeah, in 2004 i have not seen regs at nl25 5bet-shoving KQs or 99. in 2010 and 2011 i have.
the only thing wrong with this hand is the size of your 4bet. $8.50 is totally fine.

I did this because I believe it to be standard, but in my efforts to improve even I question 'standard' spots looking to increase my skill and edges.

I think if you are villain and you are showing up here vs the 4 bet with QQ/JJ/TT/AK you are spewing very very hard.

then why did you 4bet... you like spewing hard?
if you only expect to see AA here then go play PLO so you can do the same thing and still be 60/40

oh if I am villain I am not 3betting a UTG without reads and um well I ain't folding QQ,AK,KK,JJ if I did 3bet

After analyzing further in this thread I realize 4 betting was a mistake.

I'm trying to incite discussion about players increasing their edges at games like this, such as regs improving to the point of knowing when to fold AK/QQ/etc preflop and beyond.

This is a big big leak. But I guess you avoid it by not 3 betting in those spots.

So if you're never 3 betting an UTG w/o reads, doesn't that validate the points I have been making in this thread as far as the theorycrafting?

if you have a large enough sample size i would like to see your stats for hands in which you 4bet KK. i am 100% certain that it is a hugely profitable play.

4-bet/call is the line I'd take here unless villian is 6/6 over 100+ hands. I'm not sure on the exact figure but if you have KK then I think it's like 1 in 22 of someone else having AA. Don't worry too much about those times you are getting it in against AA.

Especially if you want to move up. Flatting here at 25NL might be a small leak but at 50NL and higher it start to turn into a significant leak.

I'm not talking about every 4 bet pot with KK. I'm talking about specific situations like this one where villain is ultra standard 15/12/5 reg and the dynamics of the hand dictate him to have an extremely strong range.

I think discussing and mastering spots like this can significantly improve peoples winrates while their opponents continue to stack off and just say 'cooler'.

Anyway, I've got what I needed from this thread on this particular hand, flatting vs this specific opponent in this specific spot is infinitely better than 4 betting. Ty to those that contributed.

In summary if you are villain and view UTG 4 bettor to be tight, solid and know that he also views you as tight solid:

You can safely give UTG 4 bet a range of QQ+, AKs/AKo

And hold AK:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.406% 40.08% 20.33% 230565960 116968584.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.594% 19.26% 20.33% 110831016 116968584.00 { AKs, AKo }

You hold QQ:
Hand 0: 59.793% 57.93% 01.86% 172607388 5540034.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.207% 38.35% 01.86% 114253440 5540034.00 { QQ }

You hold anything else:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.211% 74.69% 00.52% 37419016781 259442337.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 24.789% 24.27% 00.52% 12158976673 259442337.00 { random }


So we can see in villains shoes vs standard tight/solid type continuing with anything other than AA/KK is a leak and in contrast it also shows that forcing villain into this spot with a 4 bet with KK is a mistake.

okay so you flat and flop is 3c8cJh he cbets and you shove hoping he has QQ or AcKc?

Flatting allows him to have more hands we beat, yes. Instead of what I actually did where I forced him to table an ultra premium.

...even though nobody gave you that particular advice. i don't really see the point in opening a thread asking for opinions while convincing yourself of the opposite.

I guess I didn't need to open this thread after all as you're right I basically was thinking out loud. Although others get the free analysis and view on a tricky spot that we've all been in. Perhaps I should keep them to myself.

Just because the masses say 'All-in' all the time doesn't make it correct as my analysis above shows. Given the specific dynamics of the hand and how the players viewed each other I showed that 4bet/get it in is going to be significantly worse than flatting.

So u wanna flat and play what on flop?

AA would get our munys anyway otf, if no A come.

We would not get the money from AK, if AK doenst hit pair, so flatting pre is only -EV cuz we loose to much value. besides we wouldnt pay AK off otf if it hits an other pair than K.
but we happen to block pretty much all KK so bleeeh.

And anyway would u fold happily KK on an A-high flop?


Shove is superfine and if he gots AA, thats just though luck.

I dont fold KK against any player, except nit over 10k hands 4/3/0.3/ 0.1 3bet%/ f3bet 0%.

for the love of god, i don't understand these threads. post some reads/stats on villain then we'll have a clearer picture. these hands come up like every day. people need to use the search function. this is incredibly villain dependent. if villain is a 9/8 super nit who you've never seen ship with anything but KK+, but whose 3betting range likely consists of AK, AQ, QQ+ or whatever, then just flat the 3bet. if villain is a 24/21 whose 3betting range is wide and his stacking off range prf is similar to the nit's 3betting range then getting it in is not a mistake. getting KK in prf against an unknown for 100bb is also not a mistake.

there isn't a blanket statement that completely encompasses how to play KK most profitably prf, just as there isn't a blanket statement in regard to how to play any hand most profitably at any time. it's all situation/villain dependent.

if you think that routinely getting KK in prf for 100bb is a major leak then you likely have far worse leaks that are eroding your bottom line. plug those before your boat sinks.

Don't just post hands where you get coolered. Please read the new user's guide. Don't post "should I fold KK pre?" and there's plenty of stuff out there already looking at different ways to play it against tight ranges (call the 3bet and play post if you can't profitably 4b/call it off).

You're most likely making a lot of other mistakes. If your opponents are this tight, table select better. You also aren't giving reads on players. That's important. you can't play every opponent the same way.

But in the future, don't post coolers, post reads, don't post results.

Check out the stickied memorable strats thread as well.