Villain is 20/7/1 over 4000 datamined hands. He sat down a few orbits ago and has yet to show down a hand. He's open limped a few times and even limp reraised once.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BTN: $28.90
SB: $29.55
BB: $54.90
Hero (UTG): $25.00
MP: $25.35
CO: $48.75

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with 4 4
Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, BTN calls $1, SB calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($4.00) 3 4 J (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2.75, BTN calls $2.75, SB folds, BB folds

Turn: ($9.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.25, BTN calls $6.25

River: ($22.00) 2 (2 players)
Hero ??

Is there so value in this spot and if so, how much?

Tough spot. I don't think there's value in betting, tbh, he's probably only calling a bet with a set of 3s. I think the bigger question is what do you do when you check and he fires pot. Are you ahead ever?

Yeah, crappy position. You don't have much room to make a blocking bet without committing yourself.

I think you just have to check this and hope he checks behind. I probably wouldn't call much of a river bet unless i knew the villain was capable of bluffing here.

^^^ I think there is plenty of J's he is ahead of.

I think he is only calling a bet with hands that beat you and with that AF is unlikely to bet unless he beats you. I cannot see check/folding the river, so I think I would bet $5. For $5 some of those jacks and TP hands may call on this river, but so will any ace. He might check an ace behind just because he would fear you have one (again, thinking about his range and aggression)

I first tried to figure out what he called a raise with. I would assume with 7% PFR, he is only 3betting with AA/KK or AK so throw those out. He is likely calling with a suited broadway cards, a pp qq or less, or suited connectors T9-65. Against that range at the river, you are still in the lead. I would think he would only continue on the flop with QQ-22, AJs, KJs, QJs, or JTs. So I think only AJs gets past the flop and JJ would likey have raised your turn so I think you are good enough at the river to throw out a $5 bet for value and blocking. Yes he will call with an ace or 6, but he might also call with any pp and against the range listed as a whole you are still in the lead.

Edit: I guess 65s could also have made it the river as played OESD on the flop, OESD + pair on the turn. I don't think he has 76 again because that would have been the nuts on the turn and he didn't raise you. But with such a low AF, that may not be a good read.

I think you can make a small bet here, if he has a A, he will likely just call. If he has a 6 then he'll raise. I make it 6$

I like to bet bigger on the turn here and fold to a reraise. Probably a pot sized bet on the turn. Against someone this nitty I would expect a raise on the flop if he has AJ, QQ, KK, AA

Bet.
Villain calls it with a J but checks it behind if you check to him.

I would bet/fold, it's really thin but he might call with two pair, but dont expect to be ahead too often.

stacks are definitely not right to bet fold... we have like $14 behind into a 22 pot. I dont think we should bet 6 then fold....

Tough spot if he's nitty i think check and evaluating here is optimal (maybe try to pick off a timing tell)

shove

I now hate this thread

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players

BTN: $4.30
Hero (SB): $28.95
BB: $15.35
UTG: $13.70
CO: $12.55 20/0/0 over 50 hands

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with T T
1 fold, CO calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, CO calls $1

Flop: ($2.75) 4 Q T (2 players)
Hero bets $2, CO calls $2

Turn: ($6.75) J (2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO calls $4

River: ($14.75) A (2 players)

him having an A or a 6 is so unlikely here given preflop and flop (and to an extent, turn action)

if i check i'm fully intending to fold to any bet, i think he checks behind all J's, and almost all 2prs.

I don't like b/f because any bet over like $5 or so commits us pretty much given stack sizes plus I really hate small blocker bets in general. I think I actually just push it in here and let him make a hero call with like 34 or 45 or 22/33 or something

wat

IMO I don't think a super nit is calling your turn bet with A high and a gutshot. 66 or 56 is possible and are the only hands you should really be worried about at this point. Couple that with the fact that you have way less than psb and I just get it in. Checking and hoping he checks as well just seems ultra weak.

I might bet/fold if I were deep, but in this situation I probably just shove.

As I was playing that hand today I was thinking about this thread and realizing that even after thinking about it ahead of time I was still lost.

Everybody who says shove please explain why. Personally I think it's the dumbest of our options unless you think it will make him fold and A, or call with a worse hand (which it won't imo).

It's such a marginal spot for betting imo, I think there's no value in betting except not to be bluffed. Given that maybe a blocking bet here would still be the right option, you can bet 6$ like some said, He's gonna have a hard time shoving over that as a bluff given how much you have left, and I think he might just make a crying call with TP here.

Check-fold. We know that this villain is highly unlikely to bluff here, and we are not getting anything from J-X. Just give him credit for A-X if he bets, and fold.

btw,

Villain has only $5 behind and is committed, so just shove for value. If you're a nit, you can check and fold if he actually bets for once, I guess, but c'mon now, you can't be scared of someone hitting a backdoor straight all the time, especially when they call down your double-barrel. :\

I wasn't scared, I was merely curse in good humor because I was remembering this post. With his stack I wasn't folding and I doubt he was either, so then I have to decide what is the cheapest way to see a showdown. A small blocking bet was my choice, although I was calling a raise here. Looking at his stack size I considered a push on the turn, but thought it was too big of an over bet.

This is what I would do. Even fish can see that any ace makes a straight and he is not going to bluff you so...

Betting here against someone with these stats is pretty bad imo. Check and see what happens, prob fold to a large bet.