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25NL Set on Scary Board 25NL Set on Scary Board

08-01-2008 , 03:10 PM
BTN is 39/12/2.9(149) and is just kinda all around bad. I don't have enough history with him to know how many worse hands he shoves here. Thoughts on turn play?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($29.20)
UTG ($25.20)
Hero ($29.35)
CO ($89.45)
Button ($19)
SB ($29)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T, T.
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.85, 1 fold, Button calls $0.85, 2 folds.

Flop: ($2.05) T, Q, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.5, Button raises to $3, Hero raises to $9, Button calls $6.

Turn: ($20.05) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $9.15 (All-In), Hero?
25NL Set on Scary Board Quote
08-01-2008 , 03:42 PM
I could not imagine you're ahead here, unless he's just flat out bluffing....but $10 into a $20 pot doesn't have much fold equity on a board like that. Could still be a bluff though.

You're basically getting 3-1 to draw to a full house, quads, and a straight flush. Best case here with like 12 outs (9 to full house, 2 to straight flush, and 1 to quads).

I'm almost thinking has something like kings or aces and was playing them really badly on the flop, maybe even set of Q's or 9's. The min reraise/call is somewhat odd. When you 4 bet him, I'd imagine he'd just shove if he likes his hand that much. When he doesn't reshove, I almost think he flopped something stronger like a straight and didn't want you to fold.

A combo draw is possible on the flop because his range includes all sorts of suited connectors, but again the flop play does not make sense for that I don't think.

88+,A8s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A9o+,K9o+,Q9o +,J9o+,T9o

I got his range down to that...I couldn't really get any more narrow than that. It sounds like he'll call down with any piece of the flop. That puts you 57/43 ahead on the turn and should call, but I think that is still too wide.

I think you might be able to justify a call here and hope that you really have 12 live outs and one of them hits, and that he really does have such a wide range...I might be completely off here though, interested to see what others think.

Absolute worst case, he holds AsKs here, the nuts, and you're a 75/25 dog and are almost priced to call.

Last edited by SpanksOnaPlane; 08-01-2008 at 03:49 PM.
25NL Set on Scary Board Quote
08-01-2008 , 03:51 PM
Agreed..I think you're pretty much behind here most of the time (flush and straight, though a K seems more likely). I'd call though, you've got outs and could be facing a bluff (unlikely?) or maybe some random two pair?

Also interested in others' opinions
25NL Set on Scary Board Quote
08-01-2008 , 04:17 PM
I snapcall this so fast regardless of whether or not you're behind. You have 2 outs to an open ended straight flush draw, 3 queens, 3 jacks, 3 9s, the last 10.

12 basically guaranteed outs, and that's if you're actually behind against this crappy player. 4.2:1 on your money
25NL Set on Scary Board Quote
08-01-2008 , 07:23 PM
you're getting 3:1 and you have just under 25% equity vs a straight or flush , call... with snap + no thoughts.
25NL Set on Scary Board Quote

      
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