Checkraise larger on flop and try and get it in there and then. So many bad cards or draws that can come on turn and either scare him off or complete his hand.

Is that not what I said?

No, because whenever he has a set in this spot we are crushed. But when we have TT our equity soars to 40% (instead of 20%) - getting in is +EV here is it not with 40% equity due to the dead $$$ in the pot. There is a big diff between 40 and 20% equity in this spot. Treat him as shoving all in - we are investing 29.19 to win 47.44. This means we need 38% equity to break even on a call. Therefore TT is a call, 66 is a fold. My logic is perfectly consistent.

Sorry, math is hard.

Still would like to know how you deduce these %s of ranges, though.

Lol - just by my own guesstimation skills really. I think you should post the next step. I'm guessing you shoved and he showed you KK?

Just stumbled upon this and scanned it pretty quickly. Lx, I'm surprised you're advocating a fold here. Granted there aren't many hands on the villain but it can be generally assumed that he's looser than average (if only relying on bayesian logic), and even tighter opponents at these stakes will play near all of the hands BAEV mentioned above in this manner. Are you discounting all of these hands when you compile the villain's range in this spot? Even if villain flopped top set, it wouldn't necessarily make getting it in here a bad play as a wide range of hands could be held that, over time, 66 is ahead of. Losing one pot doesn't mean folding a set every time you're played back at is a winning strategy.

This is the first thing ITT that I have agreed with 100%.

I am never ever ever folding here. He is unknown and could have all sorts of draws, plus the AK, AA, KT etc crap. We set mined for a reason and this flop is drawy.


By the way, did I miss a post of what happened OTT or are we still OTF?

In principle I agree with what you are saying, however (wait for it) - an aggrodonk like this normally bets big as bluffs and with medium strength hands. What does he bet small with? Monsters LDO. I don't normally advocate folding sets, especially not to aggrodonks, but when an aggrodonk takes a weak looking line, I'm very suspicious. I mean we've shown a willingness to get stacks in and despite this he is playing. He is expecting a call - let's disappoint him by folding