Villain is 41/6 with agro factor of 1.6 over 600 hands. He raises cbets 26% of the time over 50 possible situations and considering how wide his range is, he could possibly doing it whenever he gets anything on the flop. That being said, he raises this board, and hes only representing an 8. I call flop with intention of folding if he puts a big bet on the turn. River is kinda weird tho as I think his range is pretty polarized...

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
AbsolutePoker
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG BETA_ELEMENT ($25.25)
UTG+1 SUKKADUKKA ($25.25)
CO LUGUBRIOUS9 ($40.44)
BTN Hero ($27.49)
SB LA BEE ($33.32)
BB 123_BANG_123 ($28.02)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BTN J J
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, LA BEE calls $0.75, 123_BANG_123 calls $0.60

Flop: 8 3 8 ($2.55, 3 players)
LA BEE checks, 123_BANG_123 checks, Hero bets $1.77, LA BEE raises to $4.04, 123_BANG_123 folds, Hero calls $2.27

Turn: 7 ($10.63, 2 players)
LA BEE checks, Hero checks

River: 3 ($10.63, 2 players)
LA BEE bets $7.50

Final Pot: $18.13

looks like a fold to me.

given that he raises 26% of flops and his agg isnt tiny for those stats I think we can call this. He shows up with 77, 66, 99, TT as much as 3x and 8x I think

I don't think so. I agree with OP that his range is polarised to air or the nuts and that our hand may as well be AK. Why would he bet those hands? For value or turning them into a bluff?

He plays 41/6, he's prob just betting because "lol I has 2 cards and they might be good"

because hes a fish and doesnt understand the value of his hand?

The fact that he raise 26% of flop bets generally means hes either bluffing alot or overvaluing his hands so ye this and hes obv a fish = snap call

means hes probably bluffing lots and this is a paired board....we arent going anywhere.

mehhh I still have trouble believing even most fish are that stupid - it's kind of intuitive to not bet so much on the river if you have a hand.

I still agree it's a snap call:

1) He's clearly bluff raising some flops; if you're going to bluff at a flop, this is the one to do it on.
2) He will bet this river with his air always after you've showed such weakness.

If you're not comfortable calling here then fold the flop.

They are, I see it happen all the time because im a callingstation.

It seems a bad habit from alot of people that post here that they make assumptions about what fish should and should't do based on logic/gametheory.

The more i think about it, the more i think its just a really close call and BE at best? I think we can give him more strength to his hand when he reraises me with 1 person left to act, but then the strength is equally deducted when he checks turn while having initiative. The only reason he goes for a c/r again on turn is because he has the absolute nuts and believes there are few hands which i can call with. When he bets river, we are hoping to see 2 overs with, 7x, TT, and maybe some underpairs to 8s. TT and overs can definitely be in his flop raise range, but i dont know enough about his river thoughts to deduce anything more.

and johny, this is actually a pretty terrible board to bluff raise because youre just never representing anything that strong. Trips are your strongest holding and much more of it is just pairs and over and most people will just be trapping with their monsters anyway because they want their opponents to catch up. So your range has marginal strength at best.

Whether it's good or not a lot of people see you cbet a paired board and spaz out. Clearly villain already has that tendency; if he's going to bluff at any flop it is probably going to be one like this because it's unlikely to've hit us.

i think your 1 level to high for this guy. Imo most fish are thinking "omg 883" there is no way pfr can have anything here, i bluff"

I've lost a lot of bbs calling this type of river bet. Its true he is. Fish and this line seems to be a bluff, but for the most part these players play their hand face up. The guy has a vpip of 41%, he can have any two cards. He only raises 6% pre which means he is passive. When a passive player raises the flop, checks turn (more than likely going for a c\r), leads big on the river its because he doesn't want the hand to check through.... he wants money in the pot for his big hand!

Eh, I'm inclined to think if he had a hand he would've bet the turn. You've already called a c/r on the flop, why wouldn't he bet the turn expecting a call?

Call river, imo.

Maybe going for another c/r? Though this may be an instance where you are good,i doubt it, I don't think this is a +ev call over the long run?

It doesn't mean villain knows that.


Everest Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

BTN: $26.75
Hero (SB): $40.00
BB: $27.90
UTG: $26.05
MP: $5.57
CO: $43.25

Pre Flop: ($0.40) Hero is SB with 8 J
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) 6 K 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.95, BB raises to $2.25, Hero raises to $5.45,



This spot is player dependent, against this guy +1 to this: