I just resumed playing poker again after taking about 8 months off. I started back at 10NL 2 months ago and just built up my bankroll to where I am more than covered for buy-ins at 25NL. Over the weekend I played two sessions of 25NL and request thoughts on this hand, which floored me when I saw the results. I didn’t have any stats on villain and no reads since this was about only the 4 orbits (as many of you know PAHUD wasn’t working either).

1. What kind of villain does this (what stats would you expect)?

2. What hands do you expect villain to show?

3. What hands do you call with (Assume I didn't have AA)?

4. How common is this at 25NL (where else do you see this)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($25.20)
SB ($21.60)
Hero ($35.50)
UTG ($23.25)
MP1 ($24.10)
MP2 ($44)
CO ($34.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A.
3 folds, CO raises to $34.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $34.

Flop: ($68.60) 9, K, 4 (2 players)

Turn: ($68.60) Q (2 players)

River: ($68.60) J (2 players)

Final Pot: $68.60

Results in white below:
Hero has Ah Ad (one pair, aces).
CO has 2d 2s (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Hero wins $68.60.

ewww no, multi-tabler on tilt? good for you though

dunno about stats on villain that would do this not on tilt. I think I'd call QQ+, AK and that's about it. I see this once in a great while with stuff like 22, but not real often. I'll generally give the range (given no reads which I almost always have) any PP, AJ+, KQ, plus a random atc here and there. Most of the time they are tilting and pick up a hand in my experience.

nh?

I would call KK/AA only. I've seen AA too many times at this level to take a chance with QQ. Even if their range does include some weaker hands, I don't think you're losing much by folding QQ, and I rather pass on the variance.

This assumes no notes/stats. If you know he's an aggrodonk, call all day long

EDIT: To answer your question, no it's not common. You see it every once in a while, but it's not exactly a "good" move.

Honestly, had I held KK instead of AA I might've folded, unless I wasn't so deep. Maybe I was just traumatized from my previous session where I kept getting 4betted PF with QQ and KK only to find villain with AA. I just didn't imagine anyone so deep open pushing any less than AA. Basically risking $34 to win $0.35.

Why on god's green earth would you fold KK in a situation like that. If you don't have a read you need to go with the math, and the math is saying you better be calling with anything QQ+ and AK. I can see folding AK, maybe. You are walloping the tightest players hand ranges with QQ+. You have to see that hand everytime until you see him pushing only with aces. I also find that people that shove Pre_flop tend to have weak little pairs like that because they do not want to see a flop. Players with bullets and high pairs tend to bet a normal size to get money in the pot not to stifle it.

I think the problem with ranging someone here is sample size. Unless you have history of this specific player making an all-in shove, some players will do this move with ONLY AA. Which means that "going with the math" means folding KK.

So basically you're going under the assumption that he is a uncommon player with a hand you have something less than 5 percent chance to get. I don't think you're going with the math when you fold pocket kings to an unknown, you go broke here everytime running that chance.

The only math you can go with is that he is more likely to not have AA (95 %) assuming you have no stats, which he didn't.

I dunno, I am either getting better (not true), or the play has gotten so bad at the uNL lately that I see stupid stuff like this all the time. Some of the shoves/bluffs/slowplaying nuts for no value is just....unreal.

why would someone bet that much? Sure it could be an AA, but he could just raise against the blinds. Plus so many uNL players think JJ+,AJ+ are the nuts. SNG first orbit syndrome. This bet says..."don't call me."

Nope. I call KK/AA, so I'm cutting QQ and AK from my range. AK is the easiest to cut because ANY pocket pair is ahead of you, so I wont talk about that one. QQ on the other hand is not so easy to cut. I don't think there is much math other than a full blown analysis of players making this move at a specific level. That said, opponents will probably have AA or KK a large percentage of the time (Only what I know from my small experience with this situation), and I'm willing to give up the possibility that this is a marginal +EV situation for the high variance.

This sounds like an interesting question for daggt's 1337 programming skillz

is Metopia back?

hahahahahhahahahaha......

Texibus, I thought my previous post answered your question as to why I would've considered folding KK. Basically, I just started playing 25NL again after a couple months of 10NL and my first day with QQ and KK didn't go so well. I had at least 4 situations where I had those hands and lost to the higher card after heavy preflop 3betting and 4betting. Of course I knew this wouldn't last forever but I started second guessing myself. I kept wondering, "why is everyone showing up with AA?" Then this fool pushed in and I started smiling thinking to myself, "wow, finally I'm the one with AA." I actually expected to see him with AA or AK when I called (although the chances are slim). Anyway, I just couldn't believe what he had. Also, he didn't hesistate to buy for the max after that. Two hands later he pushed AI again on the river (river was a 5) and someone insta called him. This time he showed 52o but won with trips fives. I don't recall whether it was a raised pot. Gosh, I would've called him there too after seeing his dumb AI push with deuces.

Anyway, the purpose of my post was mainly because I was having trouble with big hands.

Haecker, thanks, I think you understand where I'm coming from. And Texibus and others, I appreciate your comments as well because AA aside, I'm just looking for the right play and ways of knowing what is the right.

I cant ever get myself to fold out KK here.

1. Someone with either crazy stats or figures they can bluff and get everyone else to fold. Or they could be on tilt/hit wrong button.

2. Hands to show can be very different. Depending on stacks you can expect any pocket pair or two face cards. I have seen 10's+ and AK, sometimes even AQ.

3. How good of reads you have on your opponents I believe answers this question. Or is your opponent pushing every hand/on tilt. I call with KK and AA here. If I feel like I am getting pushed around QQ can be a call as well.

4. I havent seen people just insta push with 22. JJ+ i have seen and sometimes 10's. Usually its someone with AA or KK. or a combination. I have seen this at NL2, NL10, and occasionally NL50.

Nice hand though. Its always good to see people shove when you wake up with aces, even those few times they end up sucking out