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nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot

02-24-2010 , 04:35 AM
I think this was well played actually. If you jam the flop you're putting in 36% of the money and your equity ranges from about 45% to about 26%.

Some sample equities:
vs. 66 & KK : 26%
vs. 45 & KK: 43%
vs. 45 & TT: 25%
vs. KK & QQ: 44%
vs. AT & QQ: 37%
vs. T8 & 45: 43%
vs. T8 & KdQd: 39%


After all the weighing of ranges, it's probably a little bit profitable, although I have a hard time seeing your AE being more than 38-39%....but if you just call you will always have odds to call the turn and see the river; however you may also get the opportunity to see the river cheaply or for free, which is nice as you would prefer not to put additional money into the pot unless you have to after calling the flop re-raise. Also, you are never getting bluffed out here, because if you miss A-high will never be good on the river. Meanwhile SB will never fold to a flop shove.

Last edited by ilya; 02-24-2010 at 04:45 AM.
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-24-2010 , 04:43 AM
If you knew in advance the SB was going to betsize like this on turn and river and never fold to a push on flop, this could have been a good call.
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-24-2010 , 04:47 AM
Fold flop.
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-24-2010 , 04:56 AM
Yes, on further reflection the fact that you have 0 FE on the flop makes shoving *terrible* compared to calling. This is because by shoving you're willingly putting in additional money getting just 1:1 on that additional money when you definitely have less than 50% equity.

Imagine a situation where you and BB have $20 each, there is $100 in the pot, and you have 20% equity. If you put no additional money in the pot, you stand to make $20. If you push with 0 FE, you willingly reduce your profit to $12, by forty percent!

The situation here is analogous.

Call -- you would be getting just about the right odds if SB had pushed, and there's the slight chance that you'll get to see the river for free or for cheap.
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-24-2010 , 05:20 AM
ilya...but if the turn comes a diamond and SB puts us on what we have and folds
as opposed to the turn bricking and facing a shove. we lose what equity we would have had. people can be pretty nitty in sidepots and sb is tight (20/14) so I would think he is capable of making that fold. +if he has JJ here a shove puts him in a gross spot. I think this is thin anyway it is sliced
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-24-2010 , 07:31 AM
Although I obviously would never of known this, 3 bettor had King of diamonds so would have picked up a re draw on the turn and thus was not folding a dimaond turn.
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-24-2010 , 07:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LukeRad89
I have 33% equity v his range, thus 33% of the turns and rivers I will double up my stack entirely and the 67% I miss Ill be losing the minimum?
Dude, with all do respect, you´re trying to justify the unjustifiable. Once villain puts 18,8 on felt, you have ONLY two options: Fold or shove. Calling is out of question because you´re totally pot comitted, since you would be with $17 behind in a $60 pot. And as you said it yourself, you have a good equity versus his range, so how can you fold after that call with 33% equity getting more than 4:1 ? That´s why you cannot call that $18 bet then fold. It´s a wrong fold being 2:1 dog getting 4:1 odds, see?
So, since you will (should) not be folding EVER after that call, you are much better shoving since you DO (always) have some fold equity, even if it´s a theoretical one (your read might be wrong, he might be semi-bluffing a worst fd, he might be bluffing...). And even if you assume you have no fold equity, since you cannot fold after calling the flop bet, you have to shove anyway.
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-24-2010 , 07:41 AM
It is a shove for sure.
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-24-2010 , 10:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doug1616
this isn't completely cut an dry here. If sb has TT and BT is on the FD we are crushed.
If sb has a overP and BUT is on the FD we are flipping. If sb has a over and but has a set we are 25%. Basically we had the best possible case here. I think a lot of people arent realizing that we are only playing the sidepot for nearly another full stack against the sb who almost certainly has an over pair or a set (cause we know he doesnt have the NFD).....a flop fold isnt completely indefensible. That said I still favor shoving since the fishes range is tilted toward top pair hands.
Step 1: Download poker stove

Step 2: Name every hand with the information you have that you think both villians could resonably have in there range.

Step 3 enter Ad5d and the flop.

Step 4 hit calculate.

Step 5 shove your chips in the middle in this spot everytime.

Step 6 profit.
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-24-2010 , 04:06 PM
you think both villians could resonably have in there range...

just one villian. this is a side pot now
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-24-2010 , 04:08 PM
i ship the nickels on the flop
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-26-2010 , 08:16 PM
You played it perfectly fwiw, shipping the flop is really spewy here
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-26-2010 , 08:36 PM
shove flop so much money in there now
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-26-2010 , 09:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert
You played it perfectly fwiw, shipping the flop is really spewy here
could you elaborate?
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-26-2010 , 10:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TuckFard
could you elaborate?
I'm guessing it's because we're behind SB's range and have no fold equity.
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote
02-27-2010 , 06:11 PM
When someone min-3bets, alarm bells should be going off. The old adage "weak means strong" could never ring truer. So your options are a) call and try and hit a flush and stack him when our equity is 100%, b) raise and get it in where you seldom fold out better hands or keep in worse and get it in when our equity is ~30%. Once we elect to flat and the BTN jams, and the SB rejams, we typically have 7-9 outs and it is fairly likely they will have redraws. Due to pot odds we should call.

Whenever we are considering betting or raising we should ask ourselves 3 questions:
Do we fold out better?
Do we get called by worse?
Do we need to protect our hand against hands with decent equity against us? (e.g. we don't necessarily get value from worse when we hold 87s on 842, but it is good to bet since if we check it can be hard to play on lots of turn cards if villain leads into us)

In this instance we don't have a made hand to protect, we don't fold out better, and we don't get called by worse, but we have a hand with lots of outs to improve so calling is the line.

Pretty much what Blaaz said.
nl Pokerstars lost a stack without even getting to showdown with NFD in 3 bet pot Quote

      
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