25NL - Nuts on river... bet size? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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25NL - Nuts on river... bet size?

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07-17-2009 , 01:47 AM

cubase

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,412

Villain is 68/0/1.3 after 22. The only thing we can really surmise about him is that he's limpy and loose since he's already played 15 out of his 22 hands without a raise.

1) Bet size preference on river?

2) Any merit in just sticking it in (3xpot)?

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $40.65
CO: $18.40
BTN: $25.80
SB: $43.55
BB: $32.15
Hero (UTG): $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A

Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 7

(2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.35) T

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($5.35) J

(2 players)
Hero contemplates bet size...

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07-17-2009 , 01:50 AM

mg0698

banned

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 9,432

just make it $3-$4 he might call u with a lone pair, and he probably raises Qx so u can get it in if he has a Q any way so no need to overbet imo

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07-17-2009 , 01:52 AM

cubase

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,412

Quote:

Originally Posted by mg0698

just make it $3-$4 he might call u with a lone pair, and he probably raises Qx so u can get it in if he has a Q any way so no need to overbet imo

I think I was thinking more about 8x (68,78,89,T8,K8,88,etc).

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07-17-2009 , 02:01 AM

thrasher789

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,543

Quote:

Originally Posted by cubase

I think I was thinking more about 8x (68,78,89,T8,K8,88,etc).

He could have alot of those, he probably just as often doens't and hopefully can pop up with a lone Q

I bet 3.50 and then obv overship if he decides raising sounds fun to him

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07-17-2009 , 02:07 AM

mg0698

banned

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 9,432

Quote:

Originally Posted by cubase

I think I was thinking more about 8x (68,78,89,T8,K8,88,etc).

hmmmm yea misread the board, but still like a smaller bet. I think if u overbet u may lose value from pairs.

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07-17-2009 , 02:48 AM

lima

veteran

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 2,766

I'd push it...he calls it with any Q and it makes up for the EV we lose when he folds all the other hands...

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07-17-2009 , 02:56 AM

VithelTone

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 5,676

Quote:

Originally Posted by lima

I'd push it...he calls it with any Q and it makes up for the EV we lose when he folds all the other hands...

+1

I like this

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07-17-2009 , 03:16 AM

jacove

journeyman

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 360

Quote:

Originally Posted by VithelTone

+1

I like this

i dont like this at all. if he has a Q hes raising your bet on the river indeffinatly. unless he really is that passive? You get soo muuch more out of this with around3-4$ because like the guy said above, if he has somethin liketp hes calling more often then not, and if he has a queen hes raising, unless hes honestly afraid of one hand..

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07-17-2009 , 03:18 AM

Jub.

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 3,902

I pot it or shove it

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07-17-2009 , 03:47 AM

#10

lima

veteran

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 2,766

Quote:

Originally Posted by jacove

Oh, I've just read his stats (haven't done it before, sorry). I see this Villain calling the shove with 8x too, easily.

Maybe your line is better than mine against some Villains.

The thing is that I see this Villain calling the push with Qx/8x more often than raising the 3/4PSB with the same hand, which makes a huge difference in EV.

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07-17-2009 , 11:23 AM

#11

cubase

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,412

bump

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