BTN is a 13/10 reg who ATS over 30% of the time; I have 2400+ hands on him. The other villain I only have 65 hands on, and is displaying uber-fish stats (92/0/.75).

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $28.20
SB: $32.10
Hero (BB): $28.90
UTG: $29.10
UTG+1: $27.20
UTG+2: $28.05
MP1: $50.15
MP2: $62.80
CO: $27.80

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with J J
5 folds, CO calls $0.25, BTN raises to $1.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $3.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($9.20) 8 6 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.75, CO calls $6.75

Turn: ($22.70) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $18.15 all in, CO calls $17.05 all in

River: ($56.80) 2

bbv

either he had 7x or a better overpair than you...=/

Yeah....close thread, I'm just tilt-second guessing myself.

Against an uberfish, I'd just check the turn. If he made the straight, he'll bet and I'll fold, if he didn't he'll check behind. His stats aren't indicative of somebody that will bluff and represent the straight.

Looks totally standard vs a 92/0

I know the sample size is small, but he's playing just about every hand and is very likely to call us with worse. You're missing wayyyyyy too much value by not shoving.

But the thing is, these guys play so transparent, and this isn't our last chance to get money in. The sample size is small but so extreme it's significant; it's like flipping a quarter 50 times and having it come up tails 41 times. Small sample size and it's possible it's just random variance, but the result was so extreme it's more likely your quarter is weighted.

Anyway, here's what I'm thinking. The 5 was an extremely bad card for us. Now we're first to act on the turn against a guy that plays almost literally every hand and is extremely passive postflop. I figure there are three scenarios here:

1. He just made a straight. If this is the case, if I bet he'll shove, and I'll call, and I'll lose. If I check, he'll bet (he has the nuts, after all) and I can easily fold. Checking is definitely better here.

2. He has an overpair bigger than hours. If I bet, he'll call, and I'll lose. If I check, he'll check behind (the board is dangerous, after all).

3. He has one pair of some sort, like queen-nine or something. If I bet, he'll call. If I check, he'll check behind. But guess what - I can still move in on the river, and he'll call there, too.

No matter what the situation is, there are few river cards that are going to screw me, just a few that might complete two pair for him or a gutshot draw.

We'll accept that if he happens to have an overpair, the money's getting in one way or another and we'll lose. Nothing we can do about that.

The difference, then, is simple - either he has the straight, or he doesn't. So I check to him. Remember, he's extremely passive; he's not going to bet out unless he has the nuts or close to the nuts. If he bets, he almost always has a straight (or at least a set) and I can fold.

If he checks, I now know with fair certainty that I'm ahead, and I can happily put the rest of my stack in on the river and expect to be called.

On a really ****ty flop for highcards such as that one I tend to crai my overpairs/draws/sets against aggro players.

You can't check/raise against this guy, though, because unless he flopped a straight or a set he's going to check behind. Against calling stations you just bet for value.

This guy is a station. You don't get 92/0 stats from variance, even over 60 hands.

I mistaked my villains obv .

This guy is a station. You don't get 92/0 stats from variance, even over 60 hands.

Sure, I agree. That's why I think in this particular situation, because the guy is so reliably predictable, checking the turn is best. He's going to tell you what he has. It's like cheating!

Yeah..I just included info on the BTN in case anyone thought 3-betting JJ needed explanation.

Zeth you're contradicting yourself because JJ has boat loads of value against this guy.

If mods or anyone else thinks this hand is worth some more discussion, keep the thread open. Otherwise, I've already acknowledged this was a tilt-induced second guessing myself (results oriented thinking).

It must be because I'm tired, but... where did I contradict myself? Not asserting I didn't, just unable to find it.

I agree your jacks have a ton of value against Superdonk. I think checking the turn is protecting your stack against his straight for free, because

1. If he bets the turn, you know he has the straight and can fold, and
2. If he checks the turn, you know he doesn't have the straight, you can move in on the river and he'll call you with anything down to and including ace high.

It's a happy place to be.

Are you arguing that if he bets the turn it doesn't necessarily mean a straight and you shouldn't automatically fold?

Yes.

That's fine. You're the one that was playing with him, you'd know better than I would. I'm curious, what else do you think this particular opponent would bet on the turn here?

9x, hearts, TT

Such a gross turn card, but I think that you played this optimally given that you only have a psb left on the turn.