Villains Stats

Button is 30/23/1.7/11.8 in 45 hands with Att to Steal 50%
BB is 24/17/2.8/12.9 in 100 hands
{VPIP/PFR/AGGF/3-BET}

I can give more stats if needed, thought small samples.

Hand History

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $25.35
CO: $83.50
BTN: $27.02
Hero (SB): $25.26

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with J J
1 fold, BTN raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $3, BB raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero requests TIME

Questions

1. Do you think we are ahead of BB's range.
2. Can SO give him probable range give the stats I gave you. Too bad no reads
3. What if we had QQ or AK?
4. What about TT and 99?
5. If we are ahead do you think It better to shove or flat and evaluate flop.

200nl+
this is a shove.
25nl
this is a snapfold.

pretty much

Have you being 3betting (especially against btn opens) much?

I'd consider getting it in here. BB looks like a decent aggro player and its a great squeeze spot for him, it depends if he is capable of 4bet bluffing

1+2 . His range is JJ+,AK and probably some bluffs like Axs etc
3. Definitely shove
4. Id fold, unless there is a really aggro 4betting light dynamic in which case I'd shove
5. Dont ever flat, shove or fold

agree

1. No.
2. QQ+
3. AK never raises this small pre-flop, QQ is possible
4. I think he'd rather call or fold them.
5. Shove.

dump it, you're never good here...

Fold, not even close.

Should we snap fold here?

Consider the pot is 10.75$ now, and we have to call 4$ more .
How much can we win if we get a set and villian has AA/KK/QQ ? 1 of 8 times.
I always flat call this situation, is that a leak ?

Any reply appreciated.

1. Do you think we are ahead of BB's range.
2. Can SO give him probable range give the stats I gave you. Too bad no reads
3. What if we had QQ or AK?
4. What about TT and 99?
5. If we are ahead do you think It better to shove or flat and evaluate flop.[/QUOTE]


1) No chance
2)QQ+ AK+
3) Shove
4) If we had TT 99 never and only on the 13 month of the year, no chance Villain does this with TT 99
5) if We are ahead, always always a shove, get it in while ahead

This is a leak. playing for a set only is beneficial if in a multiway pot and if it is cheap to get in. Set mining in a 4 bet pot is incredulous.

Any regs have a different viewpoint

someone do the math to the path of +EV

Even if we get their entire stack every time we flop a set:
EV = [(2/50 + 2/49) * 25.26] + [(1 -(2/50 + 2/49)) * -4] = $-1.64
(chance we flop set * total monies to win (inc rake ldo)) + (chance we don't flop set * money we lose)

*edit* - This assumes we just c/f flops where we don't flop a set.

So every time we call the $4 bet we effectively lose $1.64... Obv it's more complicated as there could be times we steal the pot or get set over setted etc but this is a simplified version.

How's my math?

Better than my effort it's way too complicated lol.

+1

Does no one ever cold 4bet light at 25NL ? People should start doing it a lot if people want to snapfold JJ when faced with a squeeze from BB after 3betting a btn open.

Im not saying its a shove, Im just not sure Im snapfolding JJ against this villain in this particular situation. If he's good he should be considering squeezing any 2 unless hero hasnt being 3betting btn much

I think very few players at 25NL 4bet squeeze light. As someone else put it:
@200NL it's a insta snap call
@25NL it's a insta snap fold.

Hmm, this is a tough spot obv. 4handed here with 100bb and with the button being pretty loose in the eyes of BB here a lite 4bet here wouldnt be that bad imo. Really depends though on the type of player he percieves you to be and if this player is ever 4beting lite or even capable of thinking to 4bet lite here. Your range imo is slightly ahead if he a smart observant opponent capable of 4betting lite. If not then your range is behind imo. So I think we can find a fold being kinda readless. A shove here also isnt horrible imo. AK, AQs, 1010 can show up here and u might also have a little fold equity? Maybe? Hero fold? idk prolly not though lol. Also, fwiw to answer Q- 2. and 3. I am shoving here with QQ+ and folding the 1010/99.

Answers

1. Do you think we are ahead of BB's range.
never
2. Can SO give him probable range give the stats I gave you. Too bad no reads
QQ+/AK
3. What if we had QQ or AK?
shove
4. What about TT and 99?
fold
5. If we are ahead do you think It better to shove or flat and evaluate flop.
@25NL: shove

[QUOTE=richjoyce;14180572]Answers

1. Do you think we are ahead of BB's range.
never


? really, never ? Dont you think if V is a smart observant player he can 4bet here lite some of the time putting SB on a wider range trying to squeeze? Especially given BTN's loose tendencies? I agree with all else you said fwiw

A bet, a raise, and a reraise. Fold. He isn't bluffing against two other opponents.

really, never.

Include his bluffs and it doesn't make up for the amount of times he has QQ+/AK+.

We're talking range, not hand. Sure sometimes we're ahead of his hand.

What are 2/50 and 2/49?

chance of flopping set but its wrong, i think it should have 2/48 on the end but i'm not 100% sure, but at least its close enough at that point

if we take chance to flop set as 12% and i'm not double checking your other numbers, then:

EV = [.12*25.26] - [.88 * 4]

EV = 3.03 - 3.52 = -0.49

but this is so ridiculously simplified i feel like the only thing close to being +EV is me posting this so that you think its remotely profitable

we are never getting his stack EVERY time we flop a set. we are never stealing enough the times we don't make a set. we are going to get set over set sometimes. we are going to get sucked out on by river....etc. etc. etc.