I seem to getting into a habit of trying to push every "edge" I think I might have against exploitable players. Sometimes I go off the deep end like in this hand.

CO is running 8/6. Mega-nit. Wasn't concerned about him unless he flopped a set on the flop.

SB is running 52/10 over 31 hands with 7/12 flop bet, 3/7 turn bet.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Button ($47.73)
SB ($25.45)
BB ($25.60)
UTG ($31.15)
UTG+1 ($25)
Hero (MP1) ($30.36)
MP2 ($10.67)
MP3 ($7.50)
CO ($33.81)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, K
2 folds, Hero bets $1, 2 folds, CO calls $1, 1 fold, SB calls $0.90, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.25) J, 7, 4 (3 players)
SB bets $2.25, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, SB calls $3.75

Turn: ($15.25) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $3.50, Hero raises to $23.36 (All-In), (Villian has $14.95 to call off)

When he calls flop raise and small bets turn.. my most immediate thought for a donkey is.. "weak hand that doesn't want to see a shove... or draw." Is that a bad thought to have in my head? Should I knock it off?

Like you I'm of the opinion that donk leads are generally weak, and I raise flop frequently as pfr, but...

this kind of player type is volatile, to say the least, and might not fold a hand like 88 here, that a reg would OOP vs this kind of heat

think flop is debatable but probably not bad, and the turn shove is spew

Why are you trying to get a 50/10 to fold? You exploit them by taking them to value town. not getting them to fold, which is what you seem like you're doing with the flop raise and turn shove with A high.

I think that's a poor attitude to have. If you have a feeling you can get them to fold, especially when they're donking out so often with air, why not take it? I'd feel like a sucker there if I just keep folding to his donk outs when I flop nothing, and just keep praying I can take him to valuetown 1 time to make up for all those pots I gave away.

If you want to take it, then call down. Your A-K high beats air. And if he has any pair, he's not likely going to fold it.

You'd rather call down here hoping for air rather than taking control of the situation?

It's like I see this everyday. Some donk keeps min betting streets all day long and the 12 tabling regs call down with A high and lose to some crappy pair. I do not see why they just don't take control. If I get min (or even just small, anything less than half pot) bet into anytime where I don't have strong reason to believe it's a trap, I'm assuming its weak value or air and I GET THEM OFF. My goal is to insta-jam that pot button as soon as possible to look as strong as I can to the donk.

Is it exploitable? Sure. Does it work 75-85% of the time? Hell yes.

While that's a different situation, I think it applies here, atleast on the flop. I really would rather take a stab here with a raise then hopelessly call down 3 streets in the dark.

The problem is I guess with the turn when he throws out a dinky $3 or so. I don't know how to react other than "JAM JAM JAM". Which is probably spewy as already established.

But anyway, my point isn't to make this thread and then tell everyone they're wrong. Just trying to engage in intelligent conversation.

I don't know if I consider a donk bet strong, but I definitely consider it stronger than A high. A 52/10 has no idea what he's doing and probably things "i haz pare, I bet"

And the biggest weakness with these guys is that they don't know when to fold. Don't rely on them doing so.

You spew. Knock it off.

Then what are you complaining about? If it works 75-85% of the time, then the shove is profitable since you only need a fold like 50%. Even less if an A or K are outs.

I'm guessing since the names aren't bolded in the history that villain folded, right?

fwiw my default against loose passives is to play for value only as others have already said. My view is: you had fold equity preflop with your AK but then miss the flop. So that's equity lost right there. Accept that.

Here this guy donks into two players. My thought is that I am behind as he will not do this with K-high or less. And whatever he donked (best case is a flush draw), its not 100% air and he isn't folding it to your raise. Reserve that play for people that are capable of folding.

Right play, wrong guy imo. Its like showing your biceps to a blind man and being upset you get no respect.

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I would wait until I have a hand to exploit this guy.

You spew. Knock it off. Even if you did get a fold or have the best hand, there are much better situations to get the money, and against this type of player it is going to be so easy to find one of those spots.

You have a bluff catcher and you're not in control when villain is a crazy person. He doesn't care what the **** you do.

It's like playing chicken with a pyscho. If you're a rational person, you're going to lose every time.

It's not a poor attitude. It's just exploiting their biggest weakness.

Maniacs are so easy to play by just letting them hang themselves and pouncing when you have a TPGK type hands or better. This is why those 5/4 super nits tabling 700 tables make a profit......well coupled with rakeback.

lol

this

you could fold on the flop, you have ace high

I don't think you need to knock these thoughts out of your head. Alot of the information you are using to make this type of shove just isnt captured by the donkeys vpip - and other hands that you've seen as well as timing tells will affect your decision much more than his vpip/pfr. You've got osme evidence that he likes to take the betting lead and its certainly possible that he's folding half of his range here.

If I were you - I'd filter your db for times you went all in OTT/OTR with AK/AQ - de selecting the times you paired the flop/turn/great draw and dig a bit to see how good your game sense actually is if you have a significant sample of hands like this one.

dude he has like 88 or like J9 or something and isnt ever folding it

Very helpful/interesting post. Thank you.

I know I don't have a significant sample of anything like this yet. We will see in the future. I'm still on the fence of whether this was total spew or not. When in doubt I should probably not be doing it though. Sometimes I follow my gut into a wonderful play and others into oblivion *shrug*

For the record. He did end up stacking off (correctly) with 78 of spades. I missed my 4 outer.

I generally don't try to bluff a 50/10, especially not for stacks