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25NL: Flop decision, TP/FD 25NL: Flop decision, TP/FD

12-04-2007 , 12:18 AM
Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (6 handed) Ultimate-Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($28.62)
SB ($44.31)
BB ($24.25)
UTG ($24.65)
MP ($19.68)
CO ($1.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 7.
MP calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.85) 9, T, A (4 players)
BB checks, MP bets $0.85, Hero...

Should I be raising, and if so how much? Would it be better to just call from position and hope to spike...
25NL: Flop decision, TP/FD Quote
12-04-2007 , 12:47 AM
Raise PF to $1.25, so you isolate the limper, take the betting impetus and exploit being in position.

As played I like a raise because if he just calls he will often check the turn and and we can then also chk behind when we don't hit and take a free card.
25NL: Flop decision, TP/FD Quote
12-04-2007 , 01:11 AM
Definitely raise. I like to raise because it disguises your flush draw just in case your flush hits. Plus you very well could have the best hand here.
25NL: Flop decision, TP/FD Quote
12-04-2007 , 02:43 PM
Okay I raised to $3.40 I think, I'm at work so not sure.

Is that too much???

Then villian pushed for ~$16 more. I know it then just becomes an equity decision, so what range do you put villian on then. And with the range you assign, can we call?
25NL: Flop decision, TP/FD Quote
12-04-2007 , 04:36 PM
He could have a draw here too, maybe a combo draw, which you're definitely a huge favorite over. I think you're a favorite over most people's shoving range. It would be easier if there were stats.
25NL: Flop decision, TP/FD Quote
12-04-2007 , 11:12 PM
Oh, didn't realize I didn't add stats in the original post.

I have him as 23.86/1.14/1.86 over 88 hands...

What kind of range would you put him on?
25NL: Flop decision, TP/FD Quote
12-04-2007 , 11:25 PM
Something along the lines of {AA,TT-99,AT,A9,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,T9s,8d7d}. You have 43% equity against this range. You're getting 1.478:1, so you need 40.255% equity to make a call breakeven. Call his shove. Adding more Ax hands into his range really doesn't change things much one way or the other, and adding more draws obviously improves your equity.

Edit: My pot odds are off ever so slightly because I just went from OP saying villain shoved for "16 more" without looking at stack sizes. Turns out villain's shove is slightly less than that. I'm not gonna recalc it, but suffice it to say that the EV of a call is a little less thin than I had initially estimated. Doesn't change much.

Last edited by NeverScurred; 12-04-2007 at 11:32 PM.
25NL: Flop decision, TP/FD Quote
12-04-2007 , 11:28 PM
Definitely raise preflop and your raise on the flop is good too.

A 1% raiser can have alot here...AK/Q, two pair ace hands, trips...worse flush (i doubt). I don;t have Pokerstove with me, I'm curious about equity too, 12.50 into 32 and I'm thinking embrace the variance...but definitely preflop raise also..
25NL: Flop decision, TP/FD Quote

      
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