I knew I was ahead at the flop but this guy chased a couple of times so I played it safe. The question is, did I play it too safe? He would have 3bet me if he had AK and maybe even with 99 (3bet is 6%). I've got to believe he would slow play 99 or J9 on the flop which makes me feel like I should have let his AF of 4 bleed him a little.

I've just been of the mind set of VB aggressively and take more small pots from these micro stakes chasers.

Villain is 25/21/4. I am about 21/18/3 while he was at the table.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($70.30)
BB ($63.23)
CO ($11.97)
Hero ($62.50)

CO antes $0.05
Hero antes $0.05
SB antes $0.05
BB antes $0.05

Dealt to Hero J T

fold, Hero raises to $1.05, SB calls $0.90, fold

FLOP ($2.45) J 9 J

SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB calls $1.50

TURN ($5.45) J 9 J 4

SB bets $3.40, Hero raises to $9, SB folds

Hero shows J T

Hero wins $11.66

cbet bigger. And as a default turn play seems fine.

Yeah that was a mistype. I meant to hit $1.50 but yeah I agree, $1.75 might have been better.

terrible raise, nothing worse is calling

bs

I think raising or calling the turn donk is completely read based. If you feel villain would stack off on turn with a draw, combo hand, or even a PP then I think you definitely should raise. If not, then smooth calling may be more profitable as he may vbet the river thin with a PP or try to bluff with a missed draw.

LOL what

BTN vs blind he is raising every draw OTF as hero has trash huge % there would be abso no reason not to.

He calls, river is 3 he checks you bet he bluffshoves now wat. Nice spot you made for urself

I don't really think there are many hands that he would call with that don't have me beat.

My intention with the re-raise was not to induce a call for value but to induce a fold. Yes I was confident that I had him beat but I didn't want him to suck out. The only way he would call is to set up a bluff on the river IMO.

I'm not sure raising turn really accomplishes anything either. Yeah we'd love to get more value out of trips but what worse hand stacks off over 200bb deep on this board? I mean what kind of range is villain b/c on the turn. I'm suggesting that maybe calling turn and raising river might be better to let villain barrel himself off. I mean with KJ+ I'm always raising turn for sure.

Not question of stacking off. A million draws call us here even OOP.
Several PPs can call even OOP thinking we are reacting to his turn donk perhaps with a draw.

If the board was completely dry I would agree that raising wouldn't acomplish much (although we are repping a very narrow range then meaning he can call with any PP, especially if we are generally bluffy like I am)

Enough blathering. We have trips. Not that many combos that beat us...
Board is drawy, he is donking, probably with a pair or a draw, I raise for value and let him decide if he can call. If he 3 bets turn it's an easy fold.

Nah this thinking is a Phallussy. Your assigning a larger negative weight to a suck out than both its likelihood and magnitude deserve. True raising here may be profitable against KQdd exactly against the fishy type of opponent exactly but taken over all possible hands and opponent thinkings , it is preferable probably to let him bluff a whiffed river. Dont feel bad when he sucks out; the game is more complicated than that.

I would throw in a min reraise in a situation like this. You are either way ahead or way behind (unlikely FH). If villian is like a lot of uNL players, they will pot commit way too easily to a drawy hand and get bad equity when they are called down with TPTK/2P/set.

Now that you have a big hand, be creative and think of different ways to induce your opponent to shove. FWIW, your opponent seems pretty donkish with that donk bet. Reads are crucial here...past hands played by villian tell you what kind of bets he/she is likely to call down and with what type of hand.

Thought the board was dry didn't see the FD

[ ] you have a big hand
[ ] not that many combos beat us (do you count)
[ ] people call turn raises on paired boards with less than trips at unl
[ ] ...

grinningco did you count combos? There is 1 J in the deck so if he calls JT+ pre then thats 11 combos. There are more pair and flush draw combos than that.

OKAY guys are you for serious

AJs,o = 2 combos (the others 3bet pre)
KJo = 3 combos (the KJs 3bets pre)
QJs = 1 combo
J9s = 1 combo
99 = 2 combos (the other 3bets pre)
44 = 3 combos

ATdd,A8dd,A7dd,A6dd (the rest 3bet pre) = 4 combos
KQdd = 1 combo*
QTs = 2 combos** (rest 3bet pre)
KTdd = 1 combo*
T8s = 2 combos** (rest 3bet pre)
87dd = 1 combo* (assume all lower SCs 3bet pre, frankly I think a lot of these would too)
* outs are suspect because they can boat hero up
** outs are really suspect wtf

Now I'm FAIRLY confident the default flop play is to raise and if I posted as villain with T8dd my line would get flamed for being FP, never-the-less lets be generous and say even half the draws are doing this, thats 6 combos or 1/3 of the proscribed range. Lets also say villain calls with all those draws which is still kind of generous. Then the raise to $9:
- loses 5.60 or more 2/3 of the time
- gain 5.60+12.25 4/15 of the time
- lose 5.60 1/15 of the time (assuming we're able to straight fold every diamond)
compared to the call for $3.40: say he makes a good 2/3 pot bet OTR we
- lose 8 2/3 of the time (taking lumilejona's advice and folding to a 3bet)
- gain 8+12.25 4/15 of the time (he is repping a J so why would he not continue - our call signifies we could be on a draw, a good 9, TT, QQ+)
- lose 8 1/15 of the time
(I stoved our hand vs the draws and got very nearly 80/20). When we subtract 12.25 * 4/15 from both sides its clear the latter option succeeds. And I haven't even taken into account how much much wider his range would be in that option - 55s turned into bluffs, TT or 9 thinking about 'protection' (thinking they have SDV on the river and c/c) and all types of dumb floats and other crap.

The trouble with you robots is you see a couple loosely connected cards and think 'wet board'. WHAT holding precisely?? Do you really think he plays 4A or 45 of diamonds this way?

pretty standard. wp. When he donks on turn like that he's trying to set his own price for drawing.

Ok so back to OP's argument which is still more convincing than you guys. Consider a villain who folds to every raise instead. Once again option 1:
- loses 5.60 or more 2/3 of the time
- gain 5.60+12.25 1/3 of the time
ev +$2.22
While Option 2:
- loses 8 2/3 of the time
- gain 8+12.25 4/15 of the time
- lose 8 1/15 of the time
ev -$0.47
So you have a point. However as I said our range for option 2 should be a lot different thx to baluga. How different does it have to be to make it as good as Opt 1? Well, say by calling we allow to keep in x% of the mediocre, A9, KQ or 77 type crap I was talking about earlier, that will either bluff the river or c/c. Not saying that every such hand will take this line and do that, but let's figure out how many of them we need to do so to make #2 >EV than #1. So since we are losing 8 1/15 of the time that means we're (at least) calling any river, so
2.22 < -0.47(1 - x) + 20.25x
2.69 < 20.72x
x >= 13%

He needs to hold mediocrity and be willing to bluff approx 1 in 8 times. I'm to lazy to do it all but off the top of my head I think he holds mediocrity 1 in 2 minimum. I think it's safe to say 1 in 4 is going to stab again at the river.

is this discussion even necessary? what's wrong with the hand?

looks fine to me. calling the turn is probably a little worse cause of all the draws out there. tough to say much more cause we'd need reads.

grinninco you make an awful lot of assumptions on how this villain plays.
We jjust have the pf stats on unknown number of hands. He can be reallly really bad postflop. We have no idea what his donk means and any queen, any ten any king any diamond is a scary card for us. We are quite deep and I really doubt he is going to 3 bet this turn with anything short of a house.

So by raising we get value from draws and even PPs like TT 88 QQ. We also define our hand and his hand and protect our hand against random KQss etc.
If he calls our raise we can check behind river even, but I prefer to get my value here rather than on the river because of all the possible draws.

Sure sometimes he has a better hand like KJ. If we call here and call a river bet, we lose the same amount as we lose here by raising and checking behind river (if we think river bet is too thin). But against worse hands we make more money by raising here than calling here and either calling a river bet or betting if checked to.

Turn raise is fine here.

You need to get over this thinking - it will cost you lots of money in the long run. I know that it sucks when someone hits a 2 outer on you, but you do not change your play to prevent it.

With your line of thinking, we should just open shove with pocket aces every time we get them. We know we're ahead but don't want to get sucked out on. That strategy will ensure we win the minimum.

If you think you're ahead, you need to figure out how to get your opponent to put the most money into the pot to get the most value. That's the desired result. He WILL suck out on you occasionally. Actually, the bad players will suck out on you more often than you suck out on them. But on the opposite side, they will pay you off way more often as well.

Do you know why I am confident making those assumptions. Specifically the assumption that we can gain a 2/3 size pot bet OTR BECAUSE we have POSITION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IF he checks, his draw has some SDV and is willing to call a bet esp as we appear like we don't have much: there are more draws in our range than his range because we stole preflop. If he bets then he either has a big hand or air but he certainly represents a Jack very finely. There is no reason for Air to give up that representation when all We the Hero have done is steal, cbet and call turn on a drawy board in response to a possible float, unless it believes that it actually has bluff catching value. So heads we win tails he lose except some of the tails are coolers but with the coolers we lose the min.

You need to really think about your raising range here. Are you doing this with draws (Seriously?)? Are you doing this with junk? Because I get the impresion that you guys have always a jack here and that is just lol bad. OTOH if you're calling range has no jacks then it is trivial for the villain to bluff you off it come a blank river. Think abt these things pls guys?!?

We MAY get value from draws True because that raise size is so tiny. Tt, is probably 3betting pre, QQ almost assuredly. 88 calls a raise????????????????

The next part, 'we also define our hand' isn't that something we DONT want to do???

All of your response makes no sense to me, Pls clarify.

No we dont. This is the inverse situation of raising for pot control. We have a hand that has a strong likelihood of being best (as long as we dont raise, now) and I dont believe we want to exercise pot control here, in fact the opposite. Any reasonable river betsize on the river is going to be more than $5.60 because the pot will be at least $12.25.