25nl could calling AI PF with KK be -EV?
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 1,005
This is pretty simple. No one in 25nl is 5bet bluff shoving.
You hold KK, you've 4bet and now been shoved on. Does the average 25nl vil ever have 10-QQ? I''d say 99% of the time he has AA, KK, or AK.
So...according to pokerstove
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
If this is true it seems to be a -5% equity decision to call that shove.
Obv there are certain rare vils you could profitably call a shove with 99+. But that's not the issue here. The crux of the issue is whether or not your average 25nl player is shoving QQ?
If he is...
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.809% 40.24% 02.57% 86815812 5545566.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 57.191% 54.62% 02.57% 117843360 5545566.00 { KK }
then KK is crushing him.
But I've played 25nl quite a bit and I'm not sure if I've ever seen someone shove over a 4bet with queens.
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 28,908
1) Sigh
2) dead money. You 4b to 26bb, it's 74bb for you to call if he shoves, there's 125bb out there. How's that look with the -5% equity? You're completely missing the rest of the equation - pot odds being offered.
3) please read the new user's guide. Especially the part where it talks about making threads asking if we should fold KK pf.