Villain's 15/6/8 over 75 hands The table's been pretty loose passive (except for this guy) and I've been running my usual 13/9/4.



Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $28.35
UTG+1: $25.10
MP1: $11.60
MP2: $26.65
CO: $15.00
Hero (BTN): $26.60
SB: $17.20
BB: $32.55

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with J T
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, CO checks, Hero calls $0.25, SB calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1.25) J 6 5 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $2, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 raises to $24.85 all in, Hero....


Is raising this flop a mistake? Call this shove?

I raise preflop and get it in.

How exactly is this flop a combo draw? Only a flush draw, not OESFD. I would have called flop bet and not raised.

I like raising the flop, not really a fan of playing this multi way drawing to the Jhi flush.
Though i raise this pre-flop most of the time.

Once you've raised the flop, you've got to call. Your easily priced in against villains range.

This is either 78 or 55/66. He will NOT make this play with AJ. AA-JJ is unlikely (do aggro players ever slowplay PF?)

He overbets the pot in a limped pot so it's a monster.

I actually like a flop call in this spot to see how he behaves on the turn.

The thing with raising his overbet is that your raise will rarely get called. He's an aggro player so he'll most likely take the same line with a set/combo draw to any resistance on that kind of flop rendering your reads useless as to whether you're facing a weaker draw or a stronger hand.

Also, raise PF. As played you have to get it in.

If the possibility of villain having an overpair here was blatant, this would be considered a combo draw because not only do you have a flush draw but you have trips/2 pair draw.

Because if villain has an overpair we have flush out + pair outs, giving us a 14 out "combo" draw. Which, incidentally, makes us a slight favorite over AA. This type of draw is not as far ahead as an OESFD, but it has the benefit of rarely being dominated. With an OESFD if villain has a higher FD we're down to 6 outs (minus redraws). Here we've got many (but not tons) of outs against everything. We've got a sold 9 outs (minus redraws) against sets. And if villain has a higher FD we're actually way ahead (he's drawing to somewhere between 7 and 13 outs).

I call and don't worry too much about it. Variance.

Thanks.

In a table where ppl are folding to preflop raises, cbets, or both, I'm certainly raising preflop. At this kind of table, I'd rather play a multi-way pot and get out cheap if I miss the flop, especially with 2 limpers and loose blinds. It's also a combo draw if villain has something like bottom 2 pair where my jack or ten are outs, yesno?

Yes, I see the combo draw point now. Personally, I don't felt a flopped combo draw with less than 15 outs. Sure, 14 outs puts you at a slight favorite, but I'm pretty tight/nitty

I have two responses to that. Take both of them FWIW, this is not close to gospel, just my mad ruminations.

First of all, in a cash game the gaol is to find an edge and take advantage of it. If I encounter a spot where I know I'm a 50.1% favorite against anything my goal is to get as much money in the pot as possible, because the more I get in, the more skansky bucks I make, and the more skansky bucks I make, the more likely I am to have a winning month. The reason I feel comfortable pushing any edge, no matter how small, is because of my bankroll management. I can, and do, go on 10-15 bi downswings ALL THE TIME. But I'm such a BR nit this is no big deal, and I just keep on playing.

And second, I get it in here for range balancing reasons. If the only hands I bet/raise/call post-flop are sets, I anticipate a reduction in the frequency I get action on these hands. If I shove and villain says "man, this guys a nit, that's a set" and folds, I'm not happy. When he says "oh god this moran pushes his draws like this, I'm all in!" I get paid with my sets. Granted, this is super simplistic examination of range balancing (I could go on for days), and additionally there has been a lot of anti-balancing propaganda around these parts recently (which I agree with), so this definitely isn't THE way to play. But as you play more hands at current levels and get to know the regs, or move up in stakes to where you don't get paid when your gin card hits, its something to consider.

Oh, and just for the record, there's nothing wrong with being a nit in the FR forum!

I'd like to hear some of the arguments against range-balancing, Kurt. I know that this is a large part of the reason that I'll push hands like this (along with hands like TPTK/NFD) to make my hands less transparent (as per your nit with the set option). However, I know that sometimes, it can backfire. (This was especially the case in January and February where my set-o-meter was all red. The aggro flop pushes I was making with combo draws weren't being balanced out by sets (basically because I wasn't hitting any lol), so players were assuming (correctly) that I must have a draw (which I'd then miss a good part of the time). How does this kind of thing get remedied?

excellent post Kurt, there are so many hidden little gem theorums burried in this....great stuff.

Assuming I couldn't find the threads on it I had read, I typed out a whole long response. But I ended up unsure if I had captured the gist of it, used search, and found at least one of the recent threads.

linky

Its actually sometimes very very +EV to shove it all in the middle when you know your a dog (sometimes a fairly big underdog) if called.

This thread says it better than I could -
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ht=fold+equity

With top pair here I think some of your pair outs end up dirty. Against a set you only have 7 outs, as you cant win with a paired board against the set. I personally prefer to get it in with 2nd/3rd pair plus fd than top pair.

Hey Denisa. Are you doing discounted outs?

Because you have the full 9 outs against a set, as no can pair the board.

If you hit you have to dodge a fairly sizable redraw (like 12.5% you're dead after turn, and if you hit turn, villain still has almost 20% equity) so if you're discounting outs, 7 is not far off.

To get technical, non diamond turn cards takes 1 out away. If you hit the diamonds, they they have 10 outs for a full. Just standard flush draw vrs set is almost always 7 outs, not 9.

I'm just trying to understand what you're saying.

Yup, plus a non-diamond pair on the board takes them ALL away.

9 actually. You're holding one of their outs (J).

I grew up in LHE on the book SSHE. What (I think) you're doing is called "discounted outs" in that book. In truth you have 9 outs to a winner on the next card, but you have to do it without the turn or river pairing the board, which % wise works out to about what 7 "clean" outs would. Makes it easy to figure in the heat of the hand.

Kurt rocks the poker math.

+1 and I Kurt's posts like always.