Quote:
Originally Posted by maceiohobo
I'm new and just want to make sure I'm getting my math right:
On turn Hero has to call $13 into a $36 pot so pot odds are about 2.7:1.
Knowing what we know, Hero only has 7 outs giving a ratio of 5.7:1, but even if we put him on TPTK with AJ, giving us 12 outs and 2.9:1, it's still a slightly bad call based on pot odds alone.
I know there are other things to consider, but just wondering if I have my pot odds calculation right. Comments appreciated.
You're counting your outs wrong. If an A or Q wins for us, then we have 15 outs. If an A does and a Q doesn't or a Q does and an A doesn't we have 12. If neither do we have 9. Not sure where you're getting 7 from.
Since we don't know which of those numbers is the correct one, plugging our hand vs a reasonable range for villain ott (I'm just gonna say 77, JJ+ here, but it may be wider or narrower depending on villain) gives us 22%, which means we need slightly better than 3:1. Monetarily, we have to call 13.05 to win 19.55+6.50+9.85 = 35.90, which is approximately 2.75:1.
Fwiw if he has 3 worse FDs than us, then we can call, but I doubt a 13/10 plays them this way.
@OP, I like checking back turn.