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25NL can i just check/fold KK? FML 25NL can i just check/fold KK? FML

02-15-2010 , 10:07 PM
villain is 43/13/4 over about 50 hands. Seen standard loose passive play, didnt witness any hands that attributed to 4 AF.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($16.95)
MP3 ($25)
CO ($24.25)
Button ($41.46)
SB ($7.69)
BB ($25.35)
Hero (UTG) ($30.34)
UTG+1 ($19.12)
MP1 ($16.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K
Hero bets $0.75, UTG+1 calls $0.75, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.75, MP3 calls $0.75, 4 folds

Flop: ($3.35) Q, J, 5 (4 players)
Hero bets $2, UTG+1 calls $2, 2 folds

Turn: ($7.35) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $4, UTG+1 calls $4

River: ($15.35) 10 (2 players)
Hero?

The most likely hands at this point, IMO, are QQ, JJ, QJ, KQ, AQ, 55. I think I am about 50% against this range, and i assume all would call a river bet.

But, since he seems very stationy, he can have QT, JT, T9, maybe AK,maybe some underpairs. QT, JT, and AK would call a bet but im pretty sure even this guy would fold T9 and underpairs. So..it seems like valuebetting the river is bad.

I also cant imagine that check/calling would be good since his river value betting range would have us crushed and i dont think i can bluff catch since T9 has a pair and would almost always check behind.

so....check/fold?

p.s., not sure why i sized my bets so small. seems pretty bad.
25NL can i just check/fold KK? FML Quote
02-15-2010 , 10:36 PM
I don't abhor the bit sizing but they're certainly smallish. If you had bet a little larger on earlier streets, you could have set up an easy river shove for value.

I think that you're ahead of enough of this guy's range to warrant betting and he's done nothing during this hand to indicate otherwise.

You've got 60% equity on the flop against a fifth of his starting range that I see him continuing with here - {AA,QQ-TT,66-55,AJs+,KTs,QJs,AJo+,KTo,QJo}

On the end, I agree that it's close, but if he's actually wider here... You said yourself that he was stationy. Let him call - it's what he does.
25NL can i just check/fold KK? FML Quote
02-15-2010 , 11:00 PM
Being first to act with 3 players behind I can see why you don't want to make a big bet on the flop. But when you only have one caller (a loose player who has shown no strength) I think you made an error by not making a much larger bet when the turn bricks. If you would have bet something like $6 or $6.50 you do a much better job of defining your opponent's hand -- which will make the river easier to play.

Given the way you've played the hand you have a tough decision on the river. If you think that you have an easy fold if raised I would be tempted to bet something like $6 or $7.
25NL can i just check/fold KK? FML Quote
02-16-2010 , 02:34 AM
While getting 4 callers preflop isn't the greatest thing I tend to think if this guy really has 2 pair or a set of 5s which you think is possible I would think you would get raised on the turn. I think a guy with his stats could have anything from a Q or just a J or or chasing the str8 with 10-9. If this guy was a decent reg I might consider checking the riv and calling a bet, to control the pot size. However with this guy since he didn't re-raise me on the turn I'm definitely betting on the riv.
25NL can i just check/fold KK? FML Quote

      
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