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25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? 25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board?

10-07-2016 , 08:13 AM
Hello. I am curious as to whether people call here. Having reviewed the hand Im inclined to think its a fold. Villain rarely has less than two pair here. Thanks in advance.

Villain over 65 hands: 18/15/9.0/0.0

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

CO: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $29.39 (117.6 bb)
SB: $22.77 (91.1 bb)
BB: $27.26 (109 bb)
UTG: $8.55 (34.2 bb)
MP: $33.94 (135.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A A
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.70, SB calls $0.60, BB calls $0.45

Flop: ($2.10) 9 9 7 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2.10) T (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, SB folds

River: ($5.10) Q (2 players)
BB bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

[spoil]Results: $12.10 pot ($0.62 rake)
Final Board: 9 9 7 T Q
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-07-2016 , 11:01 AM
Call. Need more than 65 hands to fold this imo. You also really underrepped your hand so definitely call.
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-07-2016 , 11:05 AM
If you miss cbet flop is an easy call river.
Imho
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-07-2016 , 11:08 AM
Thanks wasn't sure about this one. What value hands in villains range am I beating? TPTK doesnt make sense.
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-07-2016 , 11:16 AM
AQdd,KQdd,QJ,Qdxd...maybe JJ or an overplayed A10, K10 or Q10. Can't put him on KK or QQ. Losing to the rest of his value hands.

I'm starting to think myself into folding considering the rest of his value range with that bet size, but that has to be a mistake?
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-07-2016 , 12:10 PM
It is a call .You dont win 100% of the time but more the enough to call.T9s(1) 89s(2) J9s(2).He can value bet QJ QT KQ maybe JJ plus bluffs
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-07-2016 , 12:37 PM
Not cbetting the flop is a mistake I think. You get values from worse pairs, straight draws...

On river you need 40% equity for calling. I think you have it easily. This range is not perfect (I approximatively used Haizemberg's one above) but you can work on it :


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.706% 64.71% 00.00% 11 0.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 35.294% 35.29% 00.00% 6 0.00 { JJ, KQs, QTs, J9s, T9s, 98s }
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-07-2016 , 12:50 PM
We dont need 40% equity we need something like 28- 29 %,but yes it show very nicely how clear call this is
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-07-2016 , 04:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Haizemberg93
It is a call .You dont win 100% of the time but more the enough to call.T9s(1) 89s(2) J9s(2).He can value bet QJ QT KQ maybe JJ plus bluffs
You forgot J8, KJ, A9, K9 or any other plausible boat combos and quads.
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-07-2016 , 04:59 PM
The mistake is not cbeting flop choose a sizing between 25 and 35%
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-07-2016 , 07:50 PM
I can see I should have c bet the flop. The ranges and the maths in the thread are a big help. I wasn't factoring in the busted draws. Thanks for the replies.
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-07-2016 , 11:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MR McDonald
The mistake is not cbeting flop choose a sizing between 25 and 35%
I agree, but why so small?
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-08-2016 , 04:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flpmethntsdlr
I agree, but why so small?
Because we are betting at such a high frequency.

But obv go bigger here because of SB being a fish.
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-08-2016 , 08:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Haizemberg93
We dont need 40% equity we need something like 28- 29 %,but yes it show very nicely how clear call this is
Oooops... Of course you're right. Call 3.5 to win 8.6 -> 3.5 / (3.5 + 8.6) = 29%
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote
10-08-2016 , 09:20 AM
Call is good, as said above we only need 29% EQ, and unless villain is only betting strong made hand here, something like QQ, TT-99, 77, QTs-Q9s, J9s-J8s, T9s, T7s, 98s - against which aces are 27%, i call - vs weak passive opponent i think i could find a fold...

Edit: Naaaaah who am i kidding, I'd call anyway. He gotta have some air and missplayed made hands turned into bluffs.

Last edited by SneakyPirana; 10-08-2016 at 09:36 AM.
25NL Call river bet with bullets on paired board? Quote

      
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