25NL: Call flop c/r with overpair get checked to OTT - what do solvers say for optimal betsize? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy Online No-Limit Hold’em Cash

25NL: Call flop c/r with overpair get checked to OTT - what do solvers say for optimal betsize?

Post Reply Subscribe

...

03-28-2020 , 12:57 PM

Inthegrid

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 644

I found this an interesting spot - I imagine a solver would say mix strategy here on turn, checking some % of time but wondering what the optimal betsize is?

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 5 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $39.75 (159 bb)
CO (Hero): $25.00 (100 bb)
BU: $24.98 (100 bb)
SB: $36.07 (144 bb)
BB: $26.60 (106 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with 9♠ 9♥
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 players fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) 3♠ 2♥ 3♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB raises to $3.25, Hero calls $2.25

Turn: ($8.10) 4♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4

River: ($16.10) 5♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $16.10 (Rake: $0.72)

Showdown:
CO (Hero) mucks 9♠ 9♥ (two pair, Nines and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 62%, Turn: 70%, River: 0%)

BB shows 4♥ 6♥ (a straight flush, Six high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 38%, Turn: 30%, River: 100%)

BB wins $15.38

Quote

03-28-2020 , 01:21 PM

dubakkur2

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 3,111

its usually a bluff when they c/r 2 tone paired flops

i usually reraise the c/r

Quote

03-28-2020 , 01:27 PM

Inthegrid

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 644

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubakkur2

its usually a bluff when they c/r 2 tone paired flops

yeah, that's why I called it

this would have been a real sick spot with villain's exact hand for double c/r

As played, what's your turn bet size?

Quote

03-28-2020 , 02:25 PM

dubakkur2

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 3,111

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inthegrid

yeah, that's why I called it

this would have been a real sick spot with villain's exact hand for double c/r

As played, what's your turn bet size?

caveat: I am a nit and I am not a solver guy (yet)

turn : I check back - the straight draws got there

Quote

03-28-2020 , 02:27 PM

Shipnickle

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 1,645

BB is supposed to x/r paired flops a lot, especially against a smaller sizing. We can assume BB is a bit stronger when he x/r vs a bigger sizing.

Best turn cards for BB are A/4/5/6. So once he checks on one of his best cards you can be quite sure you are ahead most of the time, even if BB should protect his checks here with some of his nuts.

It's a case of betting for protection vs his XhXh overs or something like KdTx, and for value vs his naked FD's, 55-88 and flop bluffs that now became a pair. We don't want to polarize to trips+ when we bet so betting small makes sense. Max half pot seems fine but can go 1/3.

Quote

03-28-2020 , 03:02 PM

Shipnickle

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 1,645

Solver likes to go for the 1/3 OTT with 99 and most of bettingrange and check back better PP's that need less protection

Quote

03-28-2020 , 03:45 PM

Zuko

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 2,356

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shipnickle

Solver likes to go for the 1/3 OTT with 99 and most of bettingrange and check back better PP's that need less protection

so in your result IP is reopening more often with 99 than with QQ/JJ ?

Quote

03-28-2020 , 03:49 PM

Shipnickle

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 1,645

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zuko

so in your result IP is reopening more often with 99 than with QQ/JJ ?

Yes! Generally checks more with the flushcard with medium pairs. QQ/JJ checks a lot more.

Quote

03-28-2020 , 03:53 PM

Zuko

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 2,356

does OOP x/r TT-88 ?

Quote

03-28-2020 , 03:58 PM

#10

Shipnickle

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 1,645

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zuko

does OOP x/r TT-88 ?

Tiny tiny frequency vs this sizing. If it was vs 1/3 it would be a 12-20% frequency x/r. Also very few combos of TT-88 considering 3b ranges preflop.

Quote

03-28-2020 , 04:02 PM

#11

Zuko

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 2,356

what preflop ranges are u using?

Quote

03-28-2020 , 04:07 PM

#12

Shipnickle

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 1,645

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zuko

what preflop ranges are u using?

It's an old solve from earlier. Think it raises 50% of those pairs pre. Deviations might make a big difference here. Should be close to snowieranges I've used.

EDIT: oh it's COvBB and not BTNvBB. nevermind. This solve should not be too relevant here since we flat all 88/99 vs CO

Quote

03-28-2020 , 04:12 PM

#13

Zuko

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 2,356

yeah i guess solver is here quite sensitive to what preflop ranges are used

Quote

03-29-2020 , 06:45 AM

#14

ionutd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 13,624

in my understanding, turn prob somewhere around 66-75%p with these more vulnerable ops

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...