125BB eff.

Hero is UTG with A3 and opens to 2.5BB
fold to BB who calls

Flop (~5.3BB)
K73
V checks
Hero bets 1.7BB
V has a raise! to 6BB
Hero raises to 20BB
V calls

Turn (~45BB)
K732
V checks
Hero bets 20BB
V jams
Hero calls!

I have looked at this hand a bit with solvers and I will share my analysis later. I thought this hand would be a good learning experience so I decided to share it.

Folding flop

So what is your thought prosess? You have good blockers and villains action indicate bigger % of fws? Also that V should probably not have raising range otf, since its so narrowed and you have range advantage? This is typical example where i burn my money.

villain is polarizing their range on this board / with this line, they credibly rep about 6 value combos, so we're operating under the assumption that villain's frequencies are way out of wack, and that he's overbluffing. This is a reasonable hand to 3-bet flop with, I like it.

the problem is on the turn. This hand sucks to bet / call as it's trailing in equity to his check shoving range which will include the strongest part of his range, and some high equity draws if he's NOT insanely overbluffing. We do block 33, but I would imagine this combo is barreling at a frequency as opposed to auto betting the turn. Even if villain is check shoving a combo draw, it's not like we have them on the ropes with equity.

Reads on villain? As much as it screams "fold flop," I don't see much in villain's range that takes that line.

77 - why not jam flop instead of let the turn peel off and then c/r? Value-milking you?
33 - you have blockers
AA - slowplayed? Still the line is beyond strange
Ax FD (A4) - bad pf flat; picked up equity on turn I guess
Other Ax FD - why jam turn facing this aggression at this point?
Combo draws (56s/45s) - bad pf flat

I'd be able to rule out these ranges differently depending on what you have on villain. Readless his range beating us is incredibly narrow (77/AA perhaps), but I'd put a lot more bluffs into his range here so the call doesn't seem horrible now. Again readless, I'm assuming a well-balanced non-maniac player.

What do solvers say?
Also is this 6-max or full ring?

6max, V is an unknown.

am I the only one folding pre A3s UTG ?
hate snowie fetish of Axs EP and minraising shiyt

Don't like the flop 3bet, does not achieve too much. Why are we building a pot with the very bottom of our range? This is not a formula for winning poker in the long run. It's such a volatile flop where your exact hand plays extremely poorly on basically every turn/river.

Same goes for turn bet, just check and pick off bluffs on brick rivers...

AP calling off turn makes some sense, probably a better call than AK in some ways. We lose to what 3 combos? Only issue is when we are behind we are dead and when we are ahead it's not by much. The kind of spot where I would need some decent info on villain play style to start calling down.

No likey the turn size. We have about 100bb effective and 45 in the pot, you could just jam given the action. Maybe go slightly bigger with your flop 3bet to make it a slightly smaller turn jam. It's a little big but we want to size up anyway.

This post is basically the winner. I'm only 3betting the flop with sets. So going very big OTT makes most sense so that I can bluff the maximum amount of combos.

The spot boils down to this:
When I cbet whole range for 33% villain is incentivized to start x/r pretty aggressively with hands like 7x, sets, low pairs that can improve to a set and fds. Because V should raise pretty wide OTF we should have a flop 3b range in this spot for value aswell. I'm raising KK and 77 for value with ~50% frequency and I need to find some bluffs too. The only hands that really make a lot of sense are 3x since I dont even have any gutshots on this flop. All flushdraws should pretty much just call villains flopraise to leverage position. When I simmed this hand the solver agreed that A3s is our best bluff OTF.

Assuming V plays the spot correctly I should bet OTT most of the time and then fold to the jam. Solvers like to just call a lot in villains shoes OTT, propably because my range is KK, 77 and bluffs.

So if we add even a couple flushdraw combos and have him x/jam sets and fds OTT which is what I'd imagine almost everyone would do if they just call the flop we have a +EV call with A3 blocking a bunch of his valuecombos.

All in all, propably should just fold turn vs an unknown V as its more likely he just has it.

Oh yeah, result:
V flips over 77

If villain's raises are a mix of strong draws and strong made hands then the turn has a pretty polarising effect on his distribution. So his strong hands get stronger and his weak hands get weaker. If this is the case why would we bet the turn? Just trying to figure out why the solver suggests betting the turn (though I guess this explains why it bet/folds at least). Just for me it makes more sense to check and then try and bluff catch brick rivers. I guess if villain should not be always jamming turn with 77 a bet makes sense as we take away his raising range (value/bluff) and then he loses bluffing EV?

Interesting stuff though

I agree with everything but would rather have A7s as that's the set you really want to be blocking here when you make this move. This result is some evidence for that position.

I would say that this is an interesting hand to study equilibrium strategy, as one earlier poster suggested that BB should perhaps not have a checkraising range on this board, which is not correct according to the solution. That being said, this is an extremely avoidable spot, and I'm not generally in the business of calling off big turn checkraises on king high boards with marginal hands in these pools as the aggressor for the reason that I think that most villains, even weaker players, are aware of the advantage that you will have as UTG, and as the aggressor, on this texture. I'm not reacting to the result, as I before said that it's a really marginal call off on turn and debatable as far as it being +EV.

so, I would say 1: this is 3-bet on the flop at some frequency if villain is playing an equilibrium strategy, I would imagine that most players are not checkraising aggressively enough in this texture vs UTG and 2: while even if we nodelock for top of range and a few draws, this hand is probably 3-bet with some frequency, we shouldn't be surprised on turn when villain turns over basically what he's representing lol

I also think that if, when presented with this situation, we take a similar line each time, we will be way overbluffing, as this is in fact a range polarization spot on flop. Villain is not incentivized to merge his range against your very strong range, he's meant to polarize his own. A/K high boards for OOP, it's not like they are supposed to start checkraising a bunch of A/Kx like crazy in single raised pots and start protecting with pocket 8s and ****.