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25 NL Mono flop w/ NFD facing a raise 25 NL Mono flop w/ NFD facing a raise

10-05-2010 , 06:38 AM
Villain is 36/17/6.0 AF over 38 hands. My 1st pot with him and no reads. Note that it is 4 handed and that he seems a bit aggressive post flop per stats at least (small sample).

Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

SB: $21.96
Hero (BB): $29.76
CO: $21.48
BTN: $24.62

Pre Flop: ($0.25) Hero is BB with J A
Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75) 4 K 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BTN raises to $5, Hero ???

All options seem to be bad. Being oop in this spot is difficult because I will end up folding the best hand on the turn (some of the time) when I miss (vs. an aggressive opponent) and will have a difficult time getting value if I hit.

Also, I am not doing very good vs. his value range.

Who likes bet/3bet flop to price me in here?

Who likes folding flop to the raise? (boo!)

Any better line?
25 NL Mono flop w/ NFD facing a raise Quote
10-05-2010 , 06:45 AM
IMO this is an easy 3bet/call spot OTF.
25 NL Mono flop w/ NFD facing a raise Quote
10-05-2010 , 06:54 AM
just jam this, you have FE too i feel.
25 NL Mono flop w/ NFD facing a raise Quote
10-05-2010 , 07:17 AM
I'm don't like the idea of flatting the flop raise, not against someone with such a huge AF - I think you'll end up facing a tough river decision just calling (this, of course, is entirely read dependent, he may not double barrel). Which leaves fold/re-raise/ship.

If you're up against a set, you've got a 24% chance of hitting the nut flush, if you're against TPGK then you're at ~40% to win, and against a bluff you're the favorite about 80% of the time. With the high AF we have to weight his range towards the bluff, as this is the type of board a villain throwing around his chips will recognize as being a spot to attempt a bluff, and as such I think you're getting favorable odds if you ship it in then. With the stack sizes the way they are, a re-raise is effectively a ship anyway, money will go in on the turn anyway, so you may as well maximise FE against low flushes and bottom sets by putting it all in, rather than a fold or a r-r.

Last edited by Skillgannon; 10-05-2010 at 07:33 AM.
25 NL Mono flop w/ NFD facing a raise Quote

      
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