3rd match against villain in a row. I have a pretty good feel for how he plays.
Villain has a loose preflop calling range, but he rarely raises preflop, limping some very strong hands (limps JJ but raises hands like A9s at similar blind levels, but he will likely 3-bet a hand like JJ and maybe TT). I've seen him make a few bad post flop plays but it's tough to put him on a hand because he limps so many.
He tends to donk bet paired flops with an unscary 3rd card, but I've never seen him lead top pair (he's hit top pair several times tonight and never played it like this on an unpaired board). I feel like he has a weaker pair and I don't think he has the Q. He could have a draw and he could possible have 99-TT. If he has a pair of 6s or a weaker 8, I expect him to bet all streets.
Do you raise this flop or do I call? If I go with my gut and feel like he has a smaller/weaker pair that he will bet with again on the turn (and possibly the river), should I be calling down or putting a raise in and risk building the pot in a tough situation?
Full Tilt Poker $22 + $1 Heads Up Sit & Go No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players
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BB: t1455
Hero (BTN/SB): t1545
Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with 8
A
Hero raises to t60, BB calls t30
Flop: (t120) 6
8
Q
(2 players)
BB bets t90, Hero calls t90
Turn: (t300) 2
(2 players)
BB bets t210, Hero calls t210
River: (t720) 7
(2 players)
BB bets t540, Hero calls t540