22$ river valuebet? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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22$ river valuebet?

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06-26-2010 , 08:01 AM

edham

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 201

It was the 2nd hand, so i haven't got any reads. He played 226 games /w -2% roi and -132$ profit. He also lost the last 5 game, and he plays on various limits, so he must be a fish.
Should i value bet the river ? If the answer is yes, what is the best bet size here? And if he shoves to my bet, should i call?

Full Tilt Poker No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15.00/t30.00 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN/SB): t1530.00 M = 34
BB: t1470.00 M = 32.67

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with J

Hero raises to t75, BB calls t45

Flop: (t150) 4

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t90.00, BB calls t90

Turn: (t330) 6

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t180.00, BB calls t180

River: (t690) T

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero

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06-26-2010 , 08:04 AM

Nederlander

banned

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,374

pbb vbetting 360-ish when he shoves I dont think you are good a high %% of the time to call imo

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06-26-2010 , 08:31 AM

Zuran

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 1,106

~ half pot it for value and call a shove, you'll see some random bluffs, Jx, missed draws and worse two pairs often enough for it to be +EV. I'm putting ~700 chips I must be ready to call a river shove otherwise I check if think villain can c/r rivered flush OOP.

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06-26-2010 , 08:53 AM

RANGERgfx

adept

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,159

bet small, fold to a shove

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06-26-2010 , 10:56 AM

Nederlander

banned

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,374

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zuran

??

What missed draw? 9T is like the only draw that missed and that ''missed draw'' is more likely to check/call than to check/shove

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06-26-2010 , 11:01 AM

RyanJM

adept

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 1,105

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nederlander

pbb vbetting 360-ish when he shoves I dont think you are good a high %% of the time to call imo

^This. No idea what the dude is talking about with someone shoving on you as a bluff or with worse 2 pair. In this spot, I'd say you'll see that like 5% versus the flush 95%. And that 5% are usually huge droolers that overvalue their hands and don't understand very basic aspects of the game--they would be like -20% roi, not marginal losers.

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06-26-2010 , 11:46 AM

quiquiriqui

09 HUNL Forum Champ

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,916

Quote:

Originally Posted by RANGERgfx

bet small, fold to a shove

+1

what riv sizes do ppl like w this line?

is anybody betting more on the flop or turn?

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06-26-2010 , 11:50 AM

Andres_A

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,480

checkin river is wayy to nitty, def valuebet something - dont`t be afraid a check/raise, times villain just calls with worse weight up the times he made flush imo

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06-26-2010 , 11:55 AM

Isildur14

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 64

Probs betting a bit smaller than 360 since i think his range will be pretty weak. I think it's an easy b/f though. I'm probs betting like 315.

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06-26-2010 , 02:08 PM

#10

Zuran

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 1,106

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nederlander

??

What missed draw? 9T is like the only draw that missed and that ''missed draw'' is more likely to check/call than to check/shove

I'm obviously widening his range bit by including 710,Q10 and we are considering a check/shove *bluff* on the river like he asked.

And i don't think c/f the river is the worse play ever. BUT in that case Hero's line seems weak to me.

edit: and I play the 5's so I might be a bit influenced by lower stakes spazzes.

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06-26-2010 , 04:00 PM

#11

broerstolyko

adept

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,038

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zuran

I'm obviously widening his range bit by including 710,Q10 and we are considering a check/shove *bluff* on the river like he asked.

And i don't think c/f the river is the worse play ever. BUT in that case Hero's line seems weak to me.

edit: and I play the 5's so I might be a bit influenced by lower stakes spazzes.

Ive moved up from the 5's and making calls like these are exactly what has me running break even above 5's....

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06-26-2010 , 10:50 PM

#12

Arsenal Gunners

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 640

Quote:

Originally Posted by bbbushu

+1

what riv sizes do ppl like w this line?

is anybody betting more on the flop or turn?

flop sizing is fine, but when they call that, they will call a bigger bet on the turn, say, 250ish. if they are going to call a river value bet, they will call a bigger one as well. i'm just wondering what they would call a value bet with when the board ran out like it did? i'd say to overbet and turn their hand into a bluff-catcher and nothing is raising you short of the nuts, but stacks are not conducive for that.

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06-26-2010 , 10:56 PM

#13

oogabuga265

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 770

Absolutely bet.

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06-26-2010 , 11:59 PM

#14

Arsenal Gunners

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 640

Quote:

Originally Posted by oogabuga265

Absolutely bet.

when every draw hit--will villain call with J8? that's the question

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06-27-2010 , 12:09 AM

#15

mersenneary

Food = Love

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 12,187

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arsenal Gunners

when every draw hit--will villain call with J8? that's the question

It's not much of a question, J8 is always calling.

Agree with Nederlander here.

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06-27-2010 , 12:31 AM

#16

oogabuga265

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 770

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arsenal Gunners

when every draw hit--will villain call with J8? that's the question

Every jack will still call. Obviously the line is to bet/fold but its still correct to bet.

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06-27-2010 , 12:42 AM

#17

Arsenal Gunners

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 640

Quote:

Originally Posted by oogabuga265

Every jack will still call. Obviously the line is to bet/fold but its still correct to bet.

lol, would you call off a naked J?

Mers-my point was that whether or not to bet for value is if the best hand that we beat is calling or not. but, if they are and considering stack sizes, why don't we just shove for value?

Last edited by Arsenal Gunners; 06-27-2010 at 12:48 AM.

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06-27-2010 , 04:24 AM

#18

Mr. G

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 353

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arsenal Gunners

Mers-my point was that whether or not to bet for value is if the best hand that we beat is calling or not. but, if they are and considering stack sizes, why don't we just shove for value?

what do you generally consider "the best hand you beat" and how can you close an if-sentence with "or not", if this was supposed to be an if-sentence or not.

@hand: zomg the braindead fish will probably call with a pair of 77s so make a value-bet between 2/3 and 3/4 of the pot and if he is capable of checkraising the river this so does not matter as it happens once in 150 games I guess. Also bet slightly more on turn.

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06-27-2010 , 05:16 AM

#19

TakeHerOnACruise

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 3,253

Just value bet. A lot of worse hands will call.

Most random $22 fish will donk the river if they have made a flush, maybe not always but i'd say 80% of the time a fish will donk large/PSB when they make the flush rather than c/shoving. Just in my experience.

Pretty difficult spot if he does c/r and it's not as simple as yeah b/f everytime. For sure you can be good here but it's pretty read dependant. The standard would be to bet/fold though. We don't expect a worse hand to c/r on the river although it is possible at low stakes/any stakes vs a fish.

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06-27-2010 , 05:25 AM

#20

Newff

┌∩┐(◣_◢)┌∩┐

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 5,137

Yeah, as others said..sucks if he c/r but I'm definitely throwing out a bet here.

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