Villain is raising ~43% of his hands PF. 2nd hand he limps pf I check with K7s (I should probably be raising here? Its the 2nd hand and I suck at OOP pots), fires a 1/2 on an AK-x flop, I call, check a J turn that gives me a FD, he fires 2/3 pot, I call, river bricks and check check he shows J6os. Like 3 hands later he raises PF I call with A8s, flop comes all rags and I call a 1/2 pot bet and he instantly shuts down and we showdown where he shows Q2s where he turned a FD and didn't bet it. A little metagame villain is being a real SOB and c/ring a lot, 3betting a lot and when I have donk'd flops to mix it up he just raises me and I let my hand go but from his perspective I am probably being a much bigger SOB. The only other showdown villian limped and checked the flop and bet the turn with a 1 card str8 draw and checked the river.

So here is the hand and a little mathalogical magic is performed afterwards.

Full Tilt Poker $22 + $1 Heads Up No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN/SB: t1245 M = 13.83
Hero (BB): t1755 M = 19.50

Pre Flop: (t90) Hero is BB with Q K
BTN/SB raises to t150, Hero calls t90

Flop: (t300) 2 9 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t150, Hero calls t150

Turn: (t600) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB checks

River: (t600) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t400, Hero...

I have two questions
#1 push/3-bet pf?
#2 call river

I am gonna do a little math to see if I can figure out what I should do pf and waste your life if you are reading along and give my thoughts on #2 after I attempt to figure out #1.

So what I am about to do is mainly for my own benefit because figuring out what hands I can 3-bet push profitably is, what I would think, a good thing to have in my back pocket. According to TNixon's post:

Estimated Value = EV(total) = 1 - CB - C + B + 2CEM - CM + C

where:
C = the percentage of the time your 3bet gets called
E = your equity when you get called
B = the button bet size (in big blinds, where a limp = 1, a minraise = 2, etc)
M = effective remaining stacks (measured in big blinds, and before blinds are posted)

So lets say he has 3 probable callings ranges:
1. Loose which is his top 23.1% (which is 22+, A2os+, KTs+) where my equity is 44.9%
2. Avg which is his top 16.9% (which is 55+, A5s+, KJs+) where my equity is 44.2%
3. Tight which is his top 10.9% (which is A8s+, 55+) where my equity is 40.25%

In situation #1 if he raises 43% of his hands he calls (23.1/43) = 54% of the time,
In #2 its (16.9/43) = 39.3%
In #3 its (10.9/43) = 25.35%

Therefore
EV1 = 2(.54)(.449)(1275/60) - (.54)(.449) - (.54)(2.5) + 2.5 + 1
= 10.30455 - .24246 - 1.35 + 2.5 + 1
= +12.21209 BB

EV2 = 2(.393)(.442)(1275/60) - (.393)(.442) - (.393)(2.5) + 2.5 + 1
= 7.3825 - .173706 - .9825 + 2.5 + 1
= +9.726294 BB

EV3 = 2(.2535)(.4025)(1275/60) - (.2535)(.4025) - (.2535)(2.5) + 2.5 +1
= 9.157 - .102 - .63375 + 2.5 + 1
= +11.92125 BB

So, if my math is correct (somebody please cross reference my numbers with what TNixon came up with and see if its true) I am a huge donkey for calling pf. If I am correct in a HUSNG equity is directly correlated to cash value so for every time I push in situation #1 I am making 12.21209*60 = 732.7254 chips => 732.7254/3000 = 24.4% of the prize pool = $10.747 which seems way more than what I had imagined but if I am correct (and so is TNixon because I have not gone through and looked at his #'s) I am apparently leaving tons of Sklansky dollars on the table. Also EV is not linear but there appears to be an inflection point somewhere; perhaps I should bust out some MatLab and iterate at some point.

Now onto teh pokaz of the hand.

I call pf because I suck.

I check/call the flop because wtf, he bets with air all the time and my hand is good.

I check the turn with the intention of folding to a bet because he hasn't barreled the turn with air yet and has only bet the turn when he checked the flop and hit a draw on the turn and magically he checks behind so my hand is good.

On the river I check praying he checks behind and I take down the pot but he doesn't. He bets 2/3 the pot. Now the river card is awful for me (I think) because the flush is within his range and so is the A but so is total air, but I haven't seen him bluff the river, but because he is being such a SOB I think he might. Also the Ad is like the best bluffing card in the entire deck. But, again, I haven't seen him bluff the river. So what should I do here?

Fold.

hahahahaha after that long post with so much detail this almost made me fall of my chair.

Thank you, I try

let me make this easy for u....if ur gna check the turn u are giving up the hand....if u shove here u are getting called sooo light its not funny....fold.....**** ur gay math, if u want to be a good heads up player go off feel, learn to see betting patterns, keep pressure on....this equity **** all these nerds post on here makes me sick.....fold the hand dude, sry if ive been rude, im a bit drunk

learn to read the hand then reply, thx gw

and maybe go out and drink with people and be social instead of sitting by yourself at a computer

nh gg

LOL math and equity = for nerds.



didnt read the o post. dont play sngs. would comment if i did. but i hope you get better answers than this.

also, im sure this is not the most helpful thing, but reading a small portion of your post i think your trying to figure out if its proffitable to shove KQs over a 2.5 bb open from a 20bb stack, and yes it deffinetly is.

yeah i did that mainly for myself I just hate being told a move is profitable without actually examining it and well, now I know.