Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 51.72 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 43)
Hero (BB): 111.2 BB
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 29.27, PFR: 21.95, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 41)
CO: 44.03 BB (VPIP: 29.03, PFR: 29.03, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 32)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5 4

fold, CO raises to 2.2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.2 BB

Flop: (4.9 BB, 2 players) 3 2 K
Hero checks, CO bets 2.33 BB, Hero raises to 9.32 BB, CO calls 6.99 BB

Turn: (23.53 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero bets 11 BB, CO calls 11 BB

River: (45.53 BB, 2 players) J
[color=red]Hero ?

Thoughts on x/call vs x/raise on flop? As played, thoughts on jamming vs. betting small on turn? Do we fire again on river?

Fold pre, bigger otf, jam turn

think u can call pre and I wouldn't raise flop

Turn is terrible, never put yourself in that situation (getting raised with a draw and having a close decision). Shove river as played (you have 5 high).

I think 45o is really quite loose even for 2.2bb vs c/o , i would fold pre. Added to that your implied odds are very bad vs a shortstacker.

Yea, too lose vs 44bb deep villain.
As played go for x/c, you don't need to balance your range vs a fish when you can 10xpot him if you hit and still be called by crazy hands.
Also turn is bad, he called a x/r on K23r, so when 7 comes ott i don't think we have too much fold eq vs a fish. Over aggression imho.

Go for x/c on flop or turn?

Why is that bad? I was intending on calling a shove on turn. I think what’s bad is when we get jammed on and we have to fold.

I thought about jamming turn, but thought that looked super blurry and I. Might actually have more FE betting smaller on turn and firing again on river.

There's very little difference between a close to break-even call and a fold.

True, but as long as villain doesn't put us in a situation where we have to fold out our equity, what's the harm in betting half-pot on turn.

I figured I could get basically just as much fold equity on marginal hands/draws as by shoving, but could also potentially fold more hands by firing another barrel on river.

Against premium hands that shove turn, it makes no difference whether we bet/call or shove.

Bet/folding or bet/calling for 0.000001bb is the same thing : your ev drops to ~0. Being just priced in is almost as bad as just straight folding. You want to avoid spots where decisions are close and folding is one of them.

The same reasoning applies when you have a psb left on the river, you don't bet 67% pot because it opens yourself to bluffraises and your ev drops to ~0 with hands that are now bluffcatchers.

wait what so essentially we shall never bet turn with a draw if we can possibly get raised?

Depends on stacksize and the strength of our draw. For example bet/folding 56 is fine in this situation because we don't give up as much equity.

If stacks are deeper it's fine to bet/fold should villain raise the right amount because we don't have a profitable shove in the first place. In this scenario it's impossible to prevent villain from raising.

Basically when we bet and are close to priced in when villain goes all in we shouldn't bet less than stack.

This is all.

You are playing with 44bb effective.

It's different on the river because we literally have 0 equity when we get jammed on by a better hand.

I just want to compare jamming here to bet/calling here.

Case 1 - Villain has something that he'll call a shove with and would shove over a half-pot bet with. In this case, there's no difference between shoving and bet/calling.

Case 2 - Villain has something that will fold to a shove and fold to a half-pot bet. Again, no difference between shoving and bet/calling here.


Case 3 - Villain has something that he'll call a shove with and would also just call a half-pot bet with. Maybe like a weaker K. In this case, we save money on the turn with the half-pot bet. Then on the river, we have the option for another barrel and depending on the river, that might be +EV. So bet/call is the better option in this case.

Case 4 - Villain has something that would fold to a shove, but would call the half-pot bet. In this case, shoving has more EV initially, but if we can get those hands to fold on the river anyways, it might be a wash.

Case 5 - Villain has something that would fold to a shove, but would jam over the half-pot bet. This is clearly better for jamming, but realistically, I don't see any hands in villain's range that would play this way.


So to argue for jamming over bet/calling, you have to believe 2 things:

1. There a lot of hands that fall into Case 4 that would fold to a shove but would call a half-pot bet.
2. Those hands wouldn't just fold to a third barrel anyways.

I take it the call pre flop was a misclick?

I think the problem with c/r this flop is that fishy villain is automatically putting you on two diamonds which basically means he isn’t folding a K unless another diamond comes out..

Well actually pio bet/folds 54 but that's because it's a 5bb mistake apparently, you don't have the odds to call a shove and it's not super close. It does check or jam with 5d4d and it often bets small with Ahigh fd most likely because we don't mind villain shoving with smaller FD.

That being said it does bet/fold Qd9d when calling a shove is very close to 0 ev so I guess what I said is wrong. I'm guessing that's because we don't have enough value hands that wants to shove? idk maybe I don't understand poker

You bet with your range not with your hand. Ofc when we get raised on the river with 5 high, that's an easy fold and we're very fine getting raised but when we have a bluffcatcher such as TP, it's really undesirable.

Case 5 : there are many draws villain could shove over a bet I think but he's not getting odds to call a shove. That being said it seems like pio is almost never shoving draws as villain but it does shove A2s pretty often for some reason and ofc folding it to a shove

AP If he were larger stack I'd say Jam but he would have to be drawing with AdXd for 2 streets when it is better for him to 3bet jam his draw on the flop with his stack size.

Hero will not fold out AA,AK, KQ,KJ, enough times ; maybe KTs, K9s, when Jams.

I would check call flop and check fold afterwards

You're right I did the math wrong here. We're getting 3:1 on the call if villain shoves and we need 5:1.

Now that I have the math right, I think shoving is clearly better.

Was not a misclick. Against a shortstack, I figured the pot odds were good enough to flat here pre closing the action.

It's funny, I play a mix of MTTs and cash, and when I post in the MTT forum, I get railed on for not defending wide enough out of the blinds. Maybe I've overcorrected.

Well it's not according to pio!