[LOW] 200NL - Deep River Thoughts with 3rd Pair - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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[LOW] 200NL - Deep River Thoughts with 3rd Pair

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08-29-2022 , 07:49 PM

0NoobiePoker0

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 2,320

CO is 30/25/13 in 150 hands. Thoughts on the river decision and on the hand as a whole are appreciated, thanks.

CO: 201.93 BB
Hero (BTN): 216.91 BB
SB: 80.5 BB
BB: 155.51 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T

CO raises to 2.25 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 5.25 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) K

CO checks, Hero bets 5.18 BB, CO calls 5.18 BB

Turn: (26.85 BB, 2 players) 8

CO checks, Hero checks

River: (26.85 BB, 2 players) J

CO bets 22.5 BB, Hero?

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08-30-2022 , 06:50 AM

slyless

Hand Evaluation Expert

Join Date: Dec 2021 Posts: 2,795

The opponent can have more than 20 combinations that beat us.

I would fold this river even against an aggressive opponent.

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08-30-2022 , 09:07 AM

0NoobiePoker0

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 2,320

Quote:

Originally Posted by slyless

The opponent can have more than 20 combinations that beat us.

I would fold this river even against an aggressive opponent.

Thanks for the breakdown, much appreciated!

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08-30-2022 , 09:23 AM

pokerfan655

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,737

Not a big fan of betting this flop - getting c/r sucks and the villain is more incentivized to do so given your sizing. River seems like a clear fold - don't think he turns something like 99 into a bluff enough of the time.

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08-30-2022 , 09:47 AM

0NoobiePoker0

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 2,320

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfan655

Not a big fan of betting this flop - getting c/r sucks and the villain is more incentivized to do so given your sizing.

This flop in this spot is a range bet. Mostly for 1/3 but some 1/2 sizing as well.

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08-30-2022 , 03:32 PM

AimHigher

adept

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 846

What if we raised?

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08-30-2022 , 03:46 PM

jbcelo

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2022 Posts: 100

I think its a fold cauze the J hits his range pretty well after XC OTF. This kind of board are usually overfolded even by solver with low pp so there are less bluffs in CO range. Villian also doesnt have a lot of A4s cauze he would 4bet some in these positions but he could have 54. I just wonder what is CO treshold when he bets this size cauze we block some of his strong hands.

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08-30-2022 , 04:32 PM

DooDooPoker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 19,693

I'd just ship it because 2 pairs/sets unblock the AQ and no one bluffs deep stacked.

I think his AQ is pretty limited for a few reasons.

1. Most AQo 4bets preflop, AQs mostly calls but that's only 4 combos.
2. We have a Queen in our hand
3. AQ will XR flop at some frequency

I think it goes like this. Ship>Fold>Call

I also think it's unlikely he is changing his preflop range based on 200bb stack depth, most people just default to 100bb strategy preflop.

Last edited by DooDooPoker; 08-30-2022 at 04:42 PM.

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08-30-2022 , 04:58 PM

pokerfan655

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,737

Raising the river is interesting, the question is does he fold all his 2 pair combos. If so then yes raise it, if not I think you have to fold. I'm also concerned with his strong river sizing - seems to be closer to the top of his value range/bluffs than anything.

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08-30-2022 , 05:33 PM

#10

0NoobiePoker0

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 2,320

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

Shipping was an option I thought about. My concern was that maybe he was flatting more AQos here instead of 4 betting it not wanting the pot to get too bloated OOP with deeper stacks. That would add more combos of the nuts. And AQ definitely C/R the flop a fair amount, but again, I wasn't sure on any adjustments he was making because of the stack depth. I think that's a tough thing to account for, is someone just sticking to 100BB ranges when playing with deeper stacks, or are they adjusting.

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