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200NL - AA utg ...river decision 200NL - AA utg ...river decision

12-30-2009 , 02:16 AM
Villain running 23/16 for 25 hands. Have not played with him before and have no reads.

What to do on this river?

Im thinking b/f to around ~$64-$74.......or do you think checking and reevaluating the hand on the river?


Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $150.80
CO: $331.40
BTN: $233.20
SB: $303.55
BB: $200.00
Hero (UTG): $256.45

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, BTN calls $8, 2 folds

Flop: ($19.00) K 3 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14

Turn: ($47.00) J (2 players)
Hero bets $30, BTN calls $30

River: ($107.00) J (2 players)
[color=red]Hero ??
200NL - AA utg ...river decision Quote
12-30-2009 , 02:30 AM
I would continue betting as our opponent is unlikely to have a 3 or J and likely to have a K.
200NL - AA utg ...river decision Quote
12-30-2009 , 02:54 AM
Im pretty sure we can put a King in villains range and i think this is a bet for value.
200NL - AA utg ...river decision Quote
12-30-2009 , 02:56 AM
i like to bet, probably folding to a shove. His value range would be AJ/KJ/33/JJ. He might have floated a flop like this with AJ high thinking he has the best hand some of the time. He can't really have a three and if he did he probably wouldn't shove it over a river barrel. The real question is whether or not he'll vbet KT/KQ on the river, and whether or not he'll call a river barrel with those hands. I think we can rule out AK given pf, and KJ is just gonna ship on the river. He might also have TT-99 but those are folding to river action I imagine. I dunno I think the value of betting and getting called by KQ/maybe KT and giving him a chance to call with TT overrides the time we lose $ by b/f'ing

not to mention we have two of the aces and there are 2 jacks out there so AJ is much less likely as is KJ obv
200NL - AA utg ...river decision Quote
12-30-2009 , 03:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grindplz
I would continue betting as our opponent is unlikely to have a 3 or J and likely to have a K.
That easy
200NL - AA utg ...river decision Quote
12-30-2009 , 03:02 AM
you know it's a bit player dependent but he may have QQ here too, i think he's about as likely to call a river bet with QQ as he is with KQ/KT since they have relatively similar strength on this board. So this makes it even more of an easy river bet
200NL - AA utg ...river decision Quote
12-30-2009 , 03:14 AM
bet vs unknown

check vs people who flat a lot on the button / are sticky and can have AQ AT / value bet very thin
200NL - AA utg ...river decision Quote
12-30-2009 , 04:06 AM
seems like about as clear cut a bet fold as it gets
200NL - AA utg ...river decision Quote
12-30-2009 , 04:17 AM
Bet/Fold 42 looks good
200NL - AA utg ...river decision Quote
12-30-2009 , 05:33 AM
wat ? just bet
200NL - AA utg ...river decision Quote

      
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